SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Does this not feel real to anyone? I'm sort of in disbelief of this whole thing about to hit honestly. Hasn't sunk in. Maybe the euro coming in big tonight would do it. Hearing Harv talk about top 10 as a lock and record breaking potential in Boston just made it real for me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Anybody wanna help cover a plane ticket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Here's Harveys map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 is it me, or does the GEM jackpot Messenger, and the upper cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Great runs on the whole for eastern Mass to be sure. Just have one question perhaps someone with formal training in the science can comment on. There's a fairly persistent subsidence hole over eastern Mass, running roughly Boston to Cape Ann, which has showed up on the RGEM, Canadian, NAM and GFS to some degree. I'm wondering if this is more a result of proximity to the sinking air around those huge bands to the west, or if it may have to do with the wind direction/coastal front? Many thanks in advance. As an addendum, just want to say this place is a treasure trove for amateurs like me. I've learned more lurking here for the past four years than I'd probably ever pick up just reading books and studying charts. That feature is subsidence in between the coastal front and low level forcing to the SE and mid level frontogenesis to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Here's Harveys map He updated that.....heavier strip running up over you tushi in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 is it me, or does the GEM jackpot Messenger, and the upper cape? It has SE MA and then what appears to be near you to ern CT. I'd say BOS is right there on that model too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 QPF queens getting the shaft in a different way than normal tonight. Mid levels were screaming east, east, east... Funny how it's responded in the QPF time as we head closer to the storm. Upton must have been spending too much time rip and reading qpf. Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets. This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely. I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 He updated that.....heavier strip running up over you tushi in ORH. Ahh, I guess they didn't put the new vid up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Here's Harveys map He updated. Added a 24+ swath in ORH and on the north and south shores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Here's Harveys map I think there may have been two, the one at the end of the broadcast had a 24+ from the north shore down through Boston and the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Alright well busy two days for me. Gotta get up early. Go snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets. This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely. I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches. Yeah I like something in the 16-24/18-24 range with jackpots higher in the localized banding. I think this one actually has just a bit less juice to it than Feb 2013 so I would expect the coverage of 24"+ to be less than that storm. But it's still going to be pretty high end. Feb 2013 had a greater gulf connection with the southern stream vortmax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets. This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely. I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches. Extremely well said - when/if the Euro does bump east the cumulative changes inside of really 30 or so hours for those to the SW will have been large. Being as we're still kind of near that window - there's still room for some meaningful changes. GEFS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets. This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely. I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches. I knew something was up once the nws map's came out and they didn't match up. 24-36"? Jesus I can't believe they had that still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 coming out now Extremely well said - when/if the Euro does bump east the cumulative changes inside of really 30 or so hours for those to the SW will have been large. Being as we're still kind of near that window - there's still room for some meaningful changes. GEFS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The cape might be a crazy spot for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets. This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely. I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches. Appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah I like something in the 16-24/18-24 range with jackpots higher in the localized banding. I think this one actually has just a bit less juice to it than Feb 2013 so I would expect the coverage of 24"+ to be less than that storm. But it's still going to be pretty high end. Feb 2013 had a greater gulf connection with the southern stream vortmax I have been on the 12 to 24 train with friends, majority won't know the difference between 24 and 18 . effectively the GP with drifting ain't going to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets. This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely. I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches. Good post. you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This will be a long hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the NYC forum has all but collapsed congrats on this historic storm while we head for the cliffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Really want to wait up for the Euro. Really should sleep. Law school semester starts again tomorrow, and tomorrow night is not going to be a sleep night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 18-24 is mighty fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I knew something was up once the nws map's came out and they didn't match up. 24-36"? Jesus I can't believe they had that still. Heck I discovered tonight that our snowfall web graphic had an error in the code that made 18-24" and 24-36" the same color. We didn't have Ginxy's chartreuse until we hit 36-48". I managed to find the error in the coding (as simple as a duplicate number 10). But these are the differences people notice between offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ukie was fine for most...a little worrisome for western folks, but you know the deal with the western fringe of the heavy QPF in these types of systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the NYC forum has all but collapsed congrats on this historic storm while we head for the cliffs. A supposed 20" correction to forecasts tends to deflate some weenies. I think they are bridge jumping a bit prematurely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The cape might be a crazy spot for this one... This could be the Blizzard of 2005 all over again...aka, boston mets discounting snows on the Cape, only to scramble at the last minute and jack up accumulations, or just refuse to acknoledge the fact that we got 3 feet of snow (I'm looking at you Pete Bouchard, called for 8-16 with a changeover to rain, ended up with 36). Time and time again there's too much model hugging when it comes to rain/snow lines over the Cape with these historic storms (and I'm not just saying that b/c I live there as I'm in the city now). As the LP bombs out heavy banding makes it very hard for temps to actually climb above freezing and change precip (look at 850mb temps and you'll see exactly what im talking about). Canadian and NAM have Cape as Jackpot with 28-34. This one will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the NYC forum has all but collapsed congrats on this historic storm while we head for the cliffs. wait 45mins before you do. I feel turrable for you guys back in my old stomping grounds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Two points wxsniss as I know you understand I've got no motives behind what I'm saying. I really believe the lean here was convective feedback was the reason the euro was right and the growing consensus of the others wrong. May still be the case, but for the reasons I outlined above I'd actually think if the experts were so sure feedback was involved in this particular case DUE to the capture and hook, it would discount the western most solutions to some extent. I'm not sure this lobe of vorticity is invalid. I think we're just seeing a slightly delayed capture because the initial impulse (as Phil and an AFD mentioned earlier) is running a wee bit fast. So as a result instead of this thing spinning up from 70 or 71, it's more like 69 or 69.5. GFS/RGEM/NAM are all in very solid general agreement. Wxniss, lastly...it's unlikely this bobble is done. 100% agree... was raising the comparison of 18z RGEM to Saturday afternoon GGEM / EURO to make the point that these eastward tugs by pieces of vorticity swinging way past 70W may have some truth to it (tough night to be obligated away from the internet... waiting until my better half falls asleep lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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