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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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Even out towards messenger and south shore spots PYM to GHG could get a pine punisher for the first 10-14" of this storm until things crash SE on Tuesday morning.

 

I was over at my parents today and the damage is still quite noticeable from Feb 2013. It's definitely gonna be tough.

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Yeah, I know how much he loves that, and I'm sure it would go a long way making the last 12 months easier. 

Absolutely would love to see Ray and Kevin get 30s, I am serious, two good men, clowns and knuckleheads and sometimes pretty brutal to me but good friends none the less.I want everyone here to get the 18-30 which I think is coming. Hey  SNE grasshoppers LETS DO THIS

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From hr 18 to hr 24 the low goes almost due east despite the trough negatively tilting? I find that somewhat farfetched. I still think the model is overdeveloping the low near deep convection. The GFS has also been too far east consistently this winter. 

 

It's a pretty weak, just developing low at that point.   It's most obvious on the color RGEM, it's not as simple as saying it's developing out under the convection...all of that moisture is further east/faster which actually traces back even to now.

 

Note how much more moisture the 12z RGEM had say in GA at 6z tonight, new run is killing that off as we approach 6z and that's occurring.  The system itself is a bit faster so it's not just about the convection.   Phil882 said this earlier and I think he's right and it can already be analyzed in the 0z run at 4-5z.  The reality of it is we're talking about a couple of hours, about 3 hours at say 20 mph forward speed of this system.  I just think the low itself may form a little bit further ENE, JMHO.

 

I_nw_r1_EST_2015012600_006.png

 

Old

 

I_nw_r1_EST_2015012512_018.png

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Absolutely would love to see Ray and Kevin get 30s, I am serious, two good men, clowns and knuckleheads and sometimes pretty brutal to me but good friends none the less.I want everyone here to get the 18-30 which I think is coming. Hey SNE grasshoppers LETS DO THIS

Yea I can't wait for obs and measurements. I want to see 40" totals somewhere.

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Absolutely would love to see Ray and Kevin get 30s, I am serious, two good men, clowns and knuckleheads and sometimes pretty brutal to me but good friends none the less.I want everyone here to get the 18-30 which I think is coming. Hey  SNE grasshoppers LETS DO THIS

Got my 30" twice in the past 5 years, truly amazing to be a part of. Rooting for all of you in eastern NE.

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Does this not feel real to anyone? I'm sort of in disbelief of this whole thing about to hit honestly. Hasn't sunk in. Maybe the euro coming in big tonight would do it.

Yup. I went through the Feb 13 threads at work not even two weeks ago, and thought to myself, man will we ever see another storm like that?

Not even two years later, here we are again. looking at potentially even more impressive numbers. It hasn't really hit yet.

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Great runs on the whole for eastern Mass to be sure. Just have one question perhaps someone with formal training in the science can comment on. There's a fairly persistent subsidence hole over eastern Mass, running roughly Boston to Cape Ann, which has showed up on the RGEM, Canadian, NAM and GFS to some degree. I'm wondering if this is more a result of proximity to the sinking air around those huge bands to the west, or if it may have to do with the wind direction/coastal front? Many thanks in advance.

 

As an addendum, just want to say this place is a treasure trove for amateurs like me. I've learned more lurking here for the past four years than I'd probably ever pick up just reading books and studying charts.

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