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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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Clinch, Tip, 0z RGEM showing a dual-lobe system that GGEM depicted 24-36 hours ago. I posted a map of this from the CMC, Tip posted a map from the Euro.

 

All resulting from a stray lobe of vorticity that shoots out farther east.

 

Interesting the RGEM is now showing the same. And still not ready to call this the final outcome.

 

Two points wxsniss as I know you understand I've got no motives behind what I'm saying.

 

I really believe the lean here was convective feedback was the reason the euro was right and the growing consensus of the others wrong.  May still be the case, but for the reasons I outlined above I'd actually think if the experts were so sure feedback was involved in this particular case DUE to the capture and hook, it would discount the western most solutions to some extent.

 

I'm not sure this lobe of vorticity is invalid.  I think we're just seeing a slightly delayed capture because the initial impulse (as Phil and an AFD mentioned earlier) is running a wee bit fast.  So as a result instead of this thing spinning up from 70 or 71, it's more like 69 or 69.5.

 

GFS/RGEM/NAM are all in very solid general agreement. 

 

Wxniss, lastly...it's unlikely this bobble is done. 

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It actually tucks in west of 18z.

 

It's forming a little later, a little further ese than the 18z, rides up towards the Cape from a position a bit further ESE (36/39 vs 42/45 18z) it's most obvious.  Same theme as the other two.   But as a consequence of finally catching on, the capture occurs faster, and by 42-54 it's much further SW on the stall than earlier runs (not the same but in the area of the others now) and it's a much bigger hit in Eastern New England.

 

If anything all three models in argue for a much more severe hit in eastern New England.  I'm not excluding the other areas, just not commenting as it's not my area.

 

0z GFS just pounds everything from Worcester east.

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It's forming a little later, a little further ese than the 18z, rides up towards the Cape from a position a bit further ESE (36/39 vs 42/45 18z) it's most obvious.  Same theme as the other two.   But as a consequence of finally catching on, the capture occurs faster, and by 42-54 it's much further SW on the stall than earlier runs (not the same but in the area of the others now) and it's a much bigger hit in Eastern New England.

 

If anything all three models in argue for a much more severe hit in eastern New England.  I'm not excluding the other areas, just not commenting as it's not my area.

 

0z GFS just pounds everything from Worcester east.

 

Yeah agree. Would like the mid level features further SE overall, but not bad. If anything, cstl SE New England are looking better.

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Central Ct should be fine.. it's going to be really close over here though. But who knows where the mega band will actuall form, hopefully we all cash in.

I'm not really worried for your area, sure you might get 12-18 instead of 18-24 but you're still measuring in feet not inches. I'm much more worried about NYC which is another 25 mile shift east from advisory totals. You need 100 miles east or so to take you out of 1'+ which I don't think is happening.

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