CT Valley Snowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro Ensembles and Op locked in the day of the event. This model suite just took a massive hit with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 euro was correcting East for several runs in a row . Rgem shifts twice in a row more of us should have jumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How much did you measure, Chris? It's predominately qpf, though. That said, we're now hiavng the best snow of the storm--at least since 5:00a.m. If it keeps up a while this could get us over the hump to reach advisory level. 4", may not make warning criteria here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 euro was correcting East for several runs in a row . Rgem shifts twice in a row more of us should have jumpedMorals of the story...never look at the NAM, fear multiple RGEM trends, if Euro is way out on its own limb toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Morals of the story...never look at the NAM, fear multiple RGEM trends, if Euro is way out on its own limb toss it. Same old, same old? and especially NEVER LOOK AT THE NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 And...there is a reason that ensemble forecasting does so well. Blend the general consensus (of globals - NEVER LOOK AT THE NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Seriously though...for synoptic evolution, never look at the NAM. It has it's place in forecasting convection, and possibly looking at CAD. But models like GFS, CMC, UKMET and even the JMA kick its butt at h5 every single time and should be used to search for a consensus before the NAM is ever touched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 When you put it on the line and go balls to wall.. you open yourself up to 2 things: It's king of the world when you nail it and you are the greatest..but if you bust you are ripped to shreds..which in all fairness is acceptable Agree. Sorry but he ripped the gfs and other east models to shred. he ripped TWC for only going 8-12 in NYC. Well, when you are wrong, you should get blasted for it. Dont dish it if you cant take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think one of the reasons totals are reduced out here is poor snow growth not just qpf issues. Baking powder, I just shoveled and it's surprisingly heavy.i agree its def 10 to 1 or less....still though not even half of the lowest amounts on box map.....i never bought 20 inch plus forecasts but i thought we were good for 12 to 15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i forecasted 8 to 14 in my logbook for spfd and i busted horribly....i forecasted 12 to 15 for a friend in middletown ct and she says they are well over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i forecasted 8 to 14 in my logbook for spfd and i busted horribly....i forecasted 12 to 15 for a friend in middletown ct and she says they are well over a foot Yeah only about 6-8 or so here that I was able to measure in a few spots. Huge bust as Ch 22 and 40 both called for 18-24. Not even close but that's no surprise for the lower valley. Sun appearing now through the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i agree its def 10 to 1 or less....still though not even half of the lowest amounts on box map.....i never bought 20 inch plus forecasts but i thought we were good for 12 to 15 or so. Yeah, biggest forecast fail I've ever had but still a net gain so gotta' appreciate it and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, biggest forecast fail I've ever had but still a net gain so gotta' appreciate it and move on.That's the spiritNot like we can control it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Could be advisory later this week, esp interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What do we do when the generally recognized Master of East Coast snowstorms busts this badly? Who do you put faith in for the next one, etc, etc? I know. its Meteorology, not Modelology... But when the best guidance for east coast storms busts so badly on an east coast storm, and guidance becomes misguidance, you dont know whether to shxx or go blind. Do we ride the short term mesos? But how far out? Do we give the new Goofus more love (hard to do with it flip flopping as it did in the days leading up? Very tough situation going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What do we do when the generally recognized Master of East Coast snowstorms busts this badly? Who do you put faith in for the next one, etc, etc? I know. its Meteorology, not Modelology... But when the best guidance for east coast storms busts so badly on an east coast storm, and guidance becomes misguidance, you dont know whether to shxx or go blind. Do we ride the short term mesos? But how far out? Do we give the new Goofus more love (hard to do with it flip flopping as it did in the days leading up? Very tough situation going forward. Look for consensus, identify trends, evaluate consistency with prior runs and current observations, use ensemble forecasting, make imperfect forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The euro has busted before and will bust again. Boxing Day '10 is another example except that one went in everyone's favor. It's not infallible. The biggest problem is that it was so consistently wrong. Had it flopped around a couple of runs it would've been easier to discount it. I went to bed not expecting much after the big cave east last night...even though it still creamed me. Consensus usually wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Look for consensus, identify trends, evaluate consistency with prior runs and current observations, use ensemble forecasting, make imperfect forecasts. Which is pretty much what was done this time, and we know how that worked out (for those west of I91 at least). So nothing changes going forward? Maybe we change the weighting factor of the various model regimes? Maybe we become less wedded to the erstwhile King? Or maybe we just accept the bust as an invevitable although only occasional part of forecasting and keep on doing the same...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Which is pretty much what was done this time, and we know how that worked out (for those west of I91 at least). So nothing changes going forward? Maybe we change the weighting factor of the various model regimes? Maybe we become less wedded to the erstwhile King? Or maybe we just accept the bust as an invevitable although only occasional part of forecasting and keep on doing the same...?If we stopped using the NAM as a synoptic model, we would have realized that the Euro was on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Could be advisory later this week, esp interior. I'm telling you man, Nov. Snow is a good indicator for the winter... You should have listened to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The euro has busted before and will bust again. Boxing Day '10 is another example except that one went in everyone's favor. It's not infallible. The biggest problem is that it was so consistently wrong. Had it flopped around a couple of runs it would've been easier to discount it. I went to bed not expecting much after the big cave east last night...even though it still creamed me. Consensus usually wins. I agree.. A lot of mets and good contributors here were throwing doubt into the mix much to the dismay of weenie posters after the Rgem starting going east. Nobody believed when the Nam wavered east because it showed the usual lack of consistency; Ukie was largely ignored with its east portrayal, and of course, the Goofus was just thought to be demonstrating its fickle nature, especially since it hasnt earned any trust since the upgrade.. . What surprised me is how Upton, for example, rode the big numbers well past the point where mets here starting urging caution, even upping their numbers late in the game.. Thats hard to figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 One thing that stands out to me is how well the models 'saw' this Ct Valley snow hole now showing up on the radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DTs FB page is ruthless. Seriously people, it's just snow. The problem I have is when he admitted his bust in NYC and points west last night...he then went on like a 4 paragraph tirade talking about how irresponsible and flat out stupid TWC was with their forecast when in reality it was way closer than his. I'm sorry, anyone who threw out 2'+ forecasts back to NYC, NWS included, was just asking for trouble. I posted this on the obs thread earlier: "As we reflect on this bust, I think it's important to remember one of the first rules I learned about forecasting...know your climatology and never forecast the extreme/historic until it's absolutely certain. Sometimes I think we all get carried away and latch onto an extreme solution. Then people talk crap on certain models and look for reasons for them to be wrong. Does the Euro have better skill than the NAM and GFS? Sure. Is it infallible? No. This is a great example of why it's important to consider all guidance. " How many 24"+ storms had NYC had in its history? Why the hell would you set that mark as the lower bound of your forecast? Don't go against climo...you'll bust 95% of the time. Was there really harm in forecasting 12-18" in NYC and mentioning the potential for more and then and adjusting up if need be? I simply don't understand why people threw common sense out with forecasting this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The euro has busted before and will bust again. Boxing Day '10 is another example except that one went in everyone's favor. It's not infallible. The biggest problem is that it was so consistently wrong. Had it flopped around a couple of runs it would've been easier to discount it. I went to bed not expecting much after the big cave east last night...even though it still creamed me. Consensus usually wins. Uh no....Boxing Day '10 certainly did not go in everyones favor.....but the next 6 weeks nade up for that epic bust here in HFD area.....that stirm is one of the more irritating ones i can remember.....this one too but i think i made out better today so not as bad..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 One thing that stands out to me is how well the models 'saw' this Ct Valley snow hole now showing up on the radar: Is the valley actually causing that ir is it councidental? I think the ct valley thing gets overplayed a bit.....im saying its not a death sentence by any stretch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is the valley actually causing that ir is it councidental? I think the ct valley thing gets overplayed a bit.....im saying its not a death sentence by any stretch..... Yeah a lot of that is coincidental in this case...but the valley obviously doesn't get any help from terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is the valley actually causing that ir is it councidental? I think the ct valley thing gets overplayed a bit.....im saying its not a death sentence by any stretch..... All I know is several of the models seem to have shown it pretty well. I know because the weenie in me freaked out more than a little each time it was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 When you put it on the line and go balls to wall.. you open yourself up to 2 things: It's king of the world when you nail it and you are the greatest..but if you bust you are ripped to shreds..which in all fairness is acceptable His maps are always just a EURO snowfall map overlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 All I know is several of the models seem to have shown it pretty well. I know because the weenie in me freaked out more than a little each time it was there. Maybe in this setup it matters.....i need to read up on exactly when it matters and doesnt matter.....ive had good storms the past 5 yrs....got in the death band in feb 2013 and feb 2006.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The problem I have is when he admitted his bust in NYC and points west last night...he then went on like a 4 paragraph tirade talking about how irresponsible and flat out stupid TWC was with their forecast when in reality it was way closer than his. I'm sorry, anyone who threw out 2'+ forecasts back to NYC, NWS included, was just asking for trouble. I posted this on the obs thread earlier: "As we reflect on this bust, I think it's important to remember one of the first rules I learned about forecasting...know your climatology and never forecast the extreme/historic until it's absolutely certain. Sometimes I think we all get carried away and latch onto an extreme solution. Then people talk crap on certain models and look for reasons for them to be wrong. Does the Euro have better skill than the NAM and GFS? Sure. Is it infallible? No. This is a great example of why it's important to consider all guidance. " How many 24"+ storms had NYC had in its history? Why the hell would you set that mark as the lower bound of your forecast? Don't go against climo...you'll bust 95% of the time. Was there really harm in forecasting 12-18" in NYC and mentioning the potential for more and then and adjusting up if need be? I simply don't understand why people threw common sense out with forecasting this one. Sent from my iPhone TWC went out of their way to downplay it. That's why you can't always hog one model and my argument to Kevin back on Saturday about the GFS. Yes the GFS can be wrong, but in this case along with a little bit of pattern recognition...I thought going 24-36 for NYC was a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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