codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 the radar hasnt looked that bad last few hrs overhead its just lots of tiny needle like flakes that dont really add up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 lol some of us just will, stay up and watch this debacle back this way. You know over the past couple days I would get annoyed with your analysis but I have to hand it to you. You nailed this system with the eastern capture two days ago and that this was really just a ene event. Well done man, for real. Appreciated but like I said aside of Kevin/Steve/Will's death band....it was mainly macro. I still cannot really see why it failed or why it's done this a couple of times now. DT says it's the 50/50 being over modeled, Ocean had the good find on the digging s/w.....who knows? It never had these issues before the upgrade. This is the my March 2014 heart break that will change a lot of people going forward when the Euro stands alone on the sw/slow edge of guidance (until they fix). FWIW, I may blow this yet. I really don't buy the widespread nature of the Euro totals overnight, nor it's all day snows tomorrow and I stand to get croaked the most by OES. I may be wrong as this issue may dampen in a mature storm setting. BUT, I see the w/v and radar down to the s/w and clearly we're seeing something take place as the "support" seems to be going over the top of that band (note it's building behind it to the east now).... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes I am guessing about another 8-12" here. Snow winds down by 11 or 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 the radar hasnt looked that bad last few hrs overhead its just lots of tiny needle like flakes that dont really add up Yeah. and we are not that far from you and e are getting clobbered. Whiteout right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The snow hole has lost its monicker. Drifts will be measured with yardsticks before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Nice job cweat. Very good call early on Not sure what will transpire here. BOX still going big on map and in p n c Looks like about 8" here so far but I did not measure. Just based on what I saw.... Euro fail for many, bliss for others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CI will post this in the obs thread since not much going on in here...what is happening? is the storm still going to stall and move nw at all or is that done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is an utter failure in GC. I don't know if we'll achieve advisory level snow. At least its breezy so the couple inches that came down can blow around a little. If it weren't so funny to bust so drastically, I'd really be bummed. I'll probably get more Thursday night/Friday than I get from this. This winter has diminished to a D- at this point out here. Sucky, sucky, sucky. When can I open the pool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is a case where it was too much modelology instead of "looking out the window" last night so forecasters held on too long for the areas that busted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man OKX is getting slaughtered on social media. ALY is having just as big a busy but luckily not many care about that area haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man OKX is getting slaughtered on social media. ALY is having just as big a busy but luckily not many care about that area haha. Oh yeah NYC snow lovers are a tough crowd when it goes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man OKX is getting slaughtered on social media. ALY is having just as big a busy but luckily not many care about that area haha. Going to be an ugly go of it for forecasters from Philly to even here. About 8 inches here guestimating but major major bust...NWS was going 20-30 last evening. Euro/NAM FTL-for once it didnt work out. On the plus side, kids go back to school tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is a case where it was too much modelology instead of "looking out the window" last night so forecasters held on too long for the areas that busted.. I was worried going to bed last night, the radar returns hitting a wall as they headed up here were tell-tale of a bust. Mets and others saying not to worry since it's really not going to be firing up until 06z gave me hope. At least I can now make it from Thanksgiving until probably February without using my snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is an utter failure in GC. I don't know if we'll achieve advisory level snow. At least its breezy so the couple inches that came down can blow around a little. If it weren't so funny to bust so drastically, I'd really be bummed. I'll probably get more Thursday night/Friday than I get from this. This winter has diminished to a D- at this point out here. Sucky, sucky, sucky. When can I open the pool? Violently agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I was worried going to bed last night, the radar returns hitting a wall as they headed up here were tell-tale of a bust. Mets and others saying not to worry since it's really not going to be firing up until 06z gave me hope. At least I can now make it from Thanksgiving until probably February without using my snowblower. Yeah I am sorry it didn't work out for you down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh yeah NYC snow lovers are a tough crowd when it goes wrong.It's pounding 30 miles from manhattan. ... but the dude in newark doesn't care about that. He looks out the window and says "fook the nws, they don't have a clue."... but who's truly the one without the clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah I am sorry it didn't work out for you down there. It is what it is. FWIW, BOX has updated it's snowfall forecast map for what is likely the last time. I don't know what they're thinking with the amounts they're showing out here. My ZFP is also calling for 12-16". A quick look out the window and at the radar makes me shake my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Going to be an ugly go of it for forecasters from Philly to even here. About 8 inches here guestimating but major major bust...NWS was going 20-30 last evening. Euro/NAM FTL-for once it didnt work out. On the plus side, kids go back to school tomorrow.I'm surprised there's a travel ban for half a foot of snow down this way. And no trains. NYC schools even closed today which is insane, but with MTA service suspended as a precaution, they have no choice. Hey at least the SI ferry is back in operation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Clinch Your the man on this storm I have seen you nail another storm like this Well done man, well done Yeah nice job Scott.Btw, people looking at Euro snowfall verbatim compared to 12z...don't forget what already fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Check out ALY's FB page...they are getting crushed for that forecast. 10-18" forecast for most of their area and not a single flake yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I've seen this posted a bunch on ALY and OKX social media pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How much does Boston have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I went with a forecast of a foot across the city and 12-16 in SW CT. Busted badly and probably look stupid to a lot of folks this morning, but when I put my forecast up alongside that 24-36 inch thing OKX had going for what seemed like forever, I feel much better about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh yeah NYC snow lovers are a tough crowd when it goes wrong.in defense , there were some posters that knew something wasnt right and wondered what okx was seeing that they werent....despite all their epic events over the past few years i feel bad for them....it really sucks and were talking a huge area from albany to ttn and phl to hfd/spfd up to greenfield that was promised warning to crippling snowfall amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 in defense , there were some posters that knew something wasnt right and wondered what okx was seeing that they werent....despite all their epic events over the past few years i feel bad for them....it really sucks and were talking a huge area from albany to ttn and phl to hfd/spfd up to greenfield that was promised warning to crippling snowfall amounts Yeah, kind of unfair, the radio DJ's are having a field day taking calls from people berating the weathermen. Same reactions on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think one of the reasons totals are reduced out here is poor snow growth not just qpf issues. Baking powder, I just shoveled and it's surprisingly heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I've seen this posted a bunch on ALY and OKX social media pages image.jpg lol!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think one of the reasons totals are reduced out here is poor snow growth not just qpf issues. Baking powder, I just shoveled and it's surprisingly heavy. How much did you measure, Chris? It's predominately qpf, though. That said, we're now hiavng the best snow of the storm--at least since 5:00a.m. If it keeps up a while this could get us over the hump to reach advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DTs FB page is ruthless. Seriously people, it's just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think one of the reasons totals are reduced out here is poor snow growth not just qpf issues. Baking powder, I just shoveled and it's surprisingly heavy. Agreed - I noticed that out here as well...just very fine sugary stuff. At least we've got a solid base now for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 DTs FB page is ruthless. Seriously people, it's just snow. When you put it on the line and go balls to wall.. you open yourself up to 2 things: It's king of the world when you nail it and you are the greatest..but if you bust you are ripped to shreds..which in all fairness is acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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