Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How does this eastward shift affect us peeps in SW and central ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 While that may be the case, 4 runs ago the Euro was giving all of NJ 3-4' of snow....and every run since it's chased NE. IMO that will continue with the 0z tonight. So in this case - the "delayed capture" really isn't an east tick. It's the low getting further north before it's captured which ultimately leads to a little displacement NE each run. I may be totally wrong on this final call for a Euro shift at 0z, but if it comes to pass that'll be the third time it's tried to stall a low too far SW since March. A developing bias to this new incarnation? I'll throw down a round at Stowe that it'll adjust in some capacity N or E from the 12z. Matters not for most, and if it wraps up enough it'll still toss back plenty of precip to the west and south. And the Euro has bumped qpf numbers up here the last 3 runs as well to reflect it getting further north, We saw this same thing happen up here with Nemo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How does this eastward shift affect us peeps in SW and central ME? It more the trek north then east, If it keeps going to far east, It takes the heavier bands with it to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 That radar from SE Ct stretching due SE out into the ocean looks beautiful. That is exactly what we wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Haha I reread a thread from Jan 2011 where that poster wxwatcher from SNH lost it on Messenger for all the east trend posts...because basically anyone west of ORH was becoming afraid of only seeing flurries with every RUC run that "ticked east." Then they got buried out in GC with a deform band later in the thread, so who knows. In this case though I think the east trend has to be watched. There's too many meso models way east, though it would suck to see the King fall on it's face to the GFS or something lol. You tell me...do you see a trend from 3 full runs ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Albany looks to be in some decent returns right now while lesser echoes are East of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 While that may be the case, 4 runs ago the Euro was giving all of NJ 3-4' of snow....and every run since it's chased NE. IMO that will continue with the 0z tonight. So in this case - the "delayed capture" really isn't an east tick. It's the low getting further north before it's captured which ultimately leads to a little displacement NE each run. I may be totally wrong on this final call for a Euro shift at 0z, but if it comes to pass that'll be the third time it's tried to stall a low too far SW since March. A developing bias to this new incarnation? I'll throw down a round at Stowe that it'll adjust in some capacity N or E from the 12z. Matters not for most, and if it wraps up enough it'll still toss back plenty of precip to the west and south. Oh I think you are right...wasn't a comment about your PBP but more that this seems to be a theme a lot. Models will show a west solution then within the final 12-24 hrs it keeps burping east. There must be something in the model algorithms that cause them to wrap these systems up too early, when in reality they take a little longer to really go to town.The further north it gets helps me. If it could go NNE instead of NE, it's definitely helps up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm not going to say anything about NYC because a few posters assured us their heavy snow looked great . I just mean I think the Euro/Euro ens idea of a widespread regional crushing with a massive jack in Se MA..might actually be the way to think here. I'm with you. And I think NYC crushes later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Miller Bs seem like they take longer to develop than models indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You tell me...do you see a trend from 3 full runs ago? Yeah, the EURO has gotten better looking in NNE in the recent runs, lol. Definitely N/E of where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh I think you are right...wasn't a comment about your PBP but more that this seems to be a theme a lot. Models will show a west solution then within the final 12-24 hrs it keeps burping east. There must be something in the model algorithms that cause them to wrap these systems up too early, when in reality they take a little longer to really go to town. The further north it gets helps me. If it could go NNE instead of NE, it's definitely helps up here. Yeah, none of this is bad for any of us particularly. I think the max jack the euro had near me was bogus, we will do best on the hopeful OES if the flow can stay aligned and it doesn't slip out/up too much. I think it's an overestimation of the blocking...50/50 etc. And it struggles to catch up. GFS on the other hand weakens that too quickly and always ends up a bit too far/way too far east. RGEM/CMC have been I thought the best with these big stalled lows lately, will see how they do tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is nearly spot on with the 7h from 12z run... It's getting ready to pop off the delmarva now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Look at this guys: Look at two key features...a tight little spin just off the VA Capes...and the drying evident N and NNE east of it on a line towards Western LI. Also note the growing area of moisture SE of the Cape that is actually escaping a bit far...but beginning to show the tell tale signs it's about to get slung more NW (develop from the south and move up over). The east models kind of almost allow the lobe to the east to get further north. That's what it has done and notice the whacked out GFS was definitely further NW with the heavier QPF into MA/RI/CT this evening vs the Euro at the same panel. That was noted for days as a fault/too slow on the Euro. I really believe it's that feature...it helped to kick everything further NE as WXNISS noted more in line with the non-euro models. Really just parsing words for the same old same old...same thing for 4 runs now with the capture on the 12z not accounting for how much moisture already got north. Should bode well for some that were freaking over subsidence, or being on the north edge particularly north of Boston into NH and ME. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150127&endTime=-1&duration=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is nearly spot on with the 7h from 12z run... It's getting ready to pop off the delmarva now. Take a look at 8h and 5h vs RAP analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150127&endTime=-1&duration=6 Last frame can really see the moisture beginning to load up south of the islands/block. Man is it going to pound over LI/CT/RI/SE Ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I might have to take a nap to cool off my ocd....because I'm obsessing whether or not the euro will fail for the western part of the system. I'm torn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I have not slept since Saturday night which was only five hours because of the craziest couple of days of my year at that convention so I really need to pace myself as I will now sleep until 2 AM or so. Why do I have ~2" in 10+ Hours? I always freak when the beginning of the storm give so little. Death band is Certainly there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Pounding here in Harwich, MA banding looks amazing, going to sleep for a few hours hopefully then get up for the thundersnows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 5" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I might have to take a nap to cool off my ocd....because I'm obsessing whether or not the euro will fail for the western part of the system. I'm torn. take the 21h 12z Euro...shift it 25 or 40 miles NE. That uber banding ends up in CT and W/C MA. The evolution is fine, it's just too quick to bring it all together. Should bode well for some that were worried..and everyone else similar. The first death band is marching into CT no problems...you can see the pivot axis may be somewhere in SW CT now, versus SW of there as the Euro had. Not a huge change..and very positive potentially for CT, parts of WMA and CMA. That band is going to hit a wall in an hour or two..and just dump. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z NAM corrected itself from its ridiculous 18z run as we knew it would.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lol, the NAM shifted 100 miles in 1 run on a 12 hour forecast (vs 6 hours at 00z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lol, the NAM shifted 100 miles in 1 run on a 12 hour forecast (vs 6 hours at 00z) lol, It was out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is all alone again it will tick NE tonight for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 #lolNAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 subsidence setting up between 128 and 495? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NAM still looks great for MBY so I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NAM dry slots me a couple of times through different phases of the storm. Yuck. Still 20" probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 lol...the model is so horrible. Nice hit here, but does it even matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 lol...the model is so horrible. Nice hit here, but does it even matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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