Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
 Share

Recommended Posts

22z RAP not looking as favorable for NYC as 21z did.

 

Definitely beginning to see the pivot taking place, radar is also filling in.  I am still surprised by the fact that the returns down there are that far east of the NJ shoreline at this stage.  I anticipated the back edge of the broken precip would have started essentially right on the beaches per the Euro.  We're 40 minutes from verification -  again rough glance but it all looks a little east to me and not fast enough up near the Cape with this first band.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely beginning to see the pivot taking place, radar is also filling in.  I am still surprised by the fact that the returns down there are that far east of the NJ shoreline at this stage.  I anticipated the back edge of the broken precip would have started essentially right on the beaches per the Euro.  We're 40 minutes from verification -  again rough glance but it all looks a little east to me and not fast enough up near the Cape with this first band.

euro had about 0.15" QPF in the 18-00z period in the NYC area. Precip totals since 18z so far...

LGA 0.20"

EWR 0.12"

JFK 0.11"

Of course some of that is a meso weenie band.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

euro had about 0.15" QPF in the 18-00z period in the NYC area. Precip totals since 18z so far...

LGA 0.20"

EWR 0.12"

JFK 0.11"

Of course some of that is a meso weenie band.

 

Just looked as carefully as I care to at this point.  The GFS and Euro deviate immediately in these next 3 or so hours.  GFS starts to pivot, fails and lifts everything north never getting the precip back to the west.  The Euro obviously is able to do that.

 

My take?  And I didn't look very carefully but the Euro is too far west.  Probably not a ton, but it is I think.  However, there's clearly back building and a pivot underway.  I could be totally wrong but looks like maybe a 25 or 30 mile difference.

 

GFS does seem to be totally cracked out unless we suddenly see this pivot release.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Areas affected, ern long island / cape cod and portions of ern ma /
ri / sern ct

concerning, heavy snow

valid 262333Z - 270430Z

summary, heavy snowfall rates 1+ inches/hour will probably begin
between 01-03 UTC along the immediate coast of srn new england and
ern long island.

discussion, 23Z surface analysis shows an estimated 994-mb low 200
mi SE acy and surface temps below freezing along the srn new england
coast. water vapor imagery shows a negative-tilt mid-level trough
located over the carolinas and wrn atlantic early this evening.
very strong h5 height falls /180 m per 12 hr/ will likely occur
downstream during the next 12 hours to the SE of long island

 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

radar juicing up over West Central Long island and NYC and backing up  West  more noticeably to the south of Long island. Not that it means anything for here, just a observation to the SW 

 

the thing that is slightly interesting  is the vortex (on radar)  just east of NJ , maybe a radar trick http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes

 

doesn't show up as well on mt holly so I highly doubt it would be any sort of LP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...