HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If the Euro and NAM are in agreement, as a met, you don't want to go against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll post the RPM in a second, but it's disastrous and is basically on its own west of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro did No it did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I love the east vs. west....north vs south...NE vs. SW...etc battles that go on in here during these storms while jockeying for jackpots and hardest impacts. Today is toss the model day, If it does not show your max BY total toss it, I look at all of then and i end up with the same 1.25-1.50"+....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NYC is getting pretty lucky with that narrow band of snow. That may save them if some of the eastern solutions are correct. It looks like just north and south of the city hasn't gotten much of anything though. That is accurate but I would argue that it was modeled pretty well as a meso feature like that could be on 0z and 12z hi res nam....and it just sort of slowly expands until and they pound till like midnite and then the deform develops on top of them from like 1am to 8am ....which is obviously up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Rad returns in the MA and S of LI have abruptly begun a west drift if not movement, and I'd argue that the 700 and 500 mb sfc are in processes of closing at this time. They will only deepen going forward. meanwhile, heavy band approaching the Cape and SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The band on LI into NYC is OES/convergence zone..It really wasn't part of the storm How the heck does NYC get OES on a NE wind? LIS ain't gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Im totally stunned at the model variance. Nervous feeling in the pit of my stomach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Today is toss the model day, If it does not show your max BY total toss it, I look at all of then and i end up with the same 1.25-1.50"+....................... You, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't think that is the same feature Pickles. Tough to tell. maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Rad returns in the MA and S of LI have abruptly begun a west drift if not movement, and I'd argue that the 700 and 500 mb sfc are in processes of closing at this time. They will only deepen going forward. meanwhile, heavy band approaching the Cape and SE I really think all the major mets will bust low with the Cape. Already approaching 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No it did not. There is a sliver of QPF nearby NYC at hour 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I would slow the suicides on the hi res stuff. Non hydrostatic models may be too QG theory based. IOW, they might be trying to put low pressure near convection like a TC. Sometimes they are right, but not sure here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Harvey Leonard has a 24+ jackpot range from south of Worcester up through my area (and yours/I'm in Pepperell). I like being in Harvey's jackpot zone! He has me in the jackpot, doesn't usually happen where I am. Its usually east and also by the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro kind of just has one massive megaband..outside of Se MA. That's why those big 24+ totals are spread all over Ct and MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If I were in NYC I'd be nervous about the western periphery of the banding setting up well to it's east. Don't know if it will retrograde but that may be pretty telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I love the east vs. west....north vs south...NE vs. SW...etc battles that go on in here during these storms while jockeying for jackpots and hardest impacts.meanwhile just laying low absorbing it all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There is a sliver of QPF nearby NYC at hour 12 That's a reach lol. Interesting either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 MVY under the freakin gun right now . Look at that beast of a band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Also as Ryan noted the ENS mean was somewhat east of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Rad returns in the MA and S of LI have abruptly begun a west drift if not movement, and I'd argue that the 700 and 500 mb sfc are in processes of closing at this time. They will only deepen going forward. meanwhile, heavy band approaching the Cape and SE Even the GFS pulls the band west, the problem is the western edge stays weaker. It all hangs in how much juice gets sucked into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm about half way between each. My father-in-law is alone in Dennis. Couldn't get him to leave and come up and stay with us, he's over 80. Hope you both don't lose power..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's a reach lol. Interesting either way It's weak but of similar size and location... I know it's a reach but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If the Euro and NAM are in agreement, as a met, you don't want to go against them. We used to call that the "double E" rule, back whence the NAM was called ETA... and was a better model, ironically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro kind of just has one massive megaband..outside of Se MA. That's why those big 24+ totals are spread all over Ct and MA I think we a much bigger deform band...like just a big blob of it for everyone, with minimal subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wouldn't worry about NYC and western sne. It doesn't get fronto band apocalypse until mid levels close off. A little hairy and worrisome till it happens but... patience. Might be some cliff hanging weenies until then in NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think we a much bigger deform band...like just a big blob of it for everyone, with minimal subsidence. Yeah I agree.. I've been on that train all afternoon. I don't think this is one of those 30 mile wide bands..There may just be 100's of miles of 24+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My father-in-law is alone in Dennis. Couldn't get him to leave and come up and stay with us, he's over 80. Hope you both don't lose power..... Having grown up on the Cape, I can almost say with a certainty that most of the Cape will be without power come the AM. 12-18 inches of heavy wet paste + 70mph gusts is not a good recipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Even the GFS pulls the band west, the problem is the western edge stays weaker. It all hangs in how much juice gets sucked into it. I have a hunch ... these cut-off histrionic historical hysteria storms... when the cut off, that gives a solid 12 hours for bands to move farther SW than modeled. Tends to happen. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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