leesun Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the 21z HRR on NCEP is significantly more west with precip shield than the 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My thoughts. Look at the initialization of the 18z suite/hour 3 and compare it to current conditions at H5. The only model that was remotely close to being correct was the NAM, the RGEM and GFS were way too far east with the setup. Look at the obs coming out of NYC already. The park is reporting 4.5" already and there are reasonably widespread 3-5" totals in the area. The GFS/RGEM, which have 5-10 total, are already close to busting(RGEM especially which had less than .6" liquid and nyc has .37, do you really think they only see .23" more) The 21z RAP is well west of the 20z RAP(20 miles or so) and made a decided trend towards letting the convection influence the low less. This matches the NAM. The Euro has been locked into the western track for days. To see it bust would be absolutely monumental, whereas I can believe the GFS being wrong due to it's poor performance and initialization scheme. At this point, my afternoon forecast will be based off the NAM and the EURO and discarding all other models. I'm taking a shot here, hope it works. I have absolutely no confidence, but it's time to make a call, and so I'm making one. Hope luck is on my side. nice thoughts, good call,good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My thoughts. Look at the initialization of the 18z suite/hour 3 and compare it to current conditions at H5. The only model that was remotely close to being correct was the NAM, the RGEM and GFS were way too far east with the setup. Look at the obs coming out of NYC already. The park is reporting 4.5" already and there are reasonably widespread 3-5" totals in the area. The GFS/RGEM, which have 5-10 total, are already close to busting(RGEM especially which had less than .6" liquid and nyc has .37, do you really think they only see .23" more) The 21z RAP is well west of the 20z RAP(20 miles or so) and made a decided trend towards letting the convection influence the low less. This matches the NAM. The Euro has been locked into the western track for days. To see it bust would be absolutely monumental, whereas I can believe the GFS being wrong due to it's poor performance and initialization scheme. At this point, my afternoon forecast will be based off the NAM and the EURO and discarding all other models. I'm taking a shot here, hope it works. I have absolutely no confidence, but it's time to make a call, and so I'm making one. Hope luck is on my side. Thanks for laying it all out, so hard to keep up with all the model runs as we get so close to go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm seeing something very different. But, I'm not as well-versed in this.Glancing at the radar, it looks like the orientation of the bands will be good for us. It almost looks like a band is trying to come together from nyc to just over my head. ... Of course, it is very early, but i take it as a very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 - CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD- SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!- 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING- WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES- STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND- MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION Hell on Earth... okay, got it. That's all you had to say, the scariest place imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the 21z HRR on NCEP is significantly more west with precip shield than the 20z Some of us have remained unperturbed today by the paranoid talk of WNE being screwed etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 mid levels aren't anywhere near closing off yet western peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RPM needs to retire for coastals lol if the Euro/NAM verify. It gives the berks An inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTINGS NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVELENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONGAN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXESOF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLYSTACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSINGLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACEPRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATESTWATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICHTHE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNINGACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Heavy snow now. James are you close to route 6 or closer to the ocean. I.E what part of Harwich you at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Some of us have remained unperturbed today by the paranoid talk of WNE being screwed etc. LOL--I love that icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I love the east vs. west....north vs south...NE vs. SW...etc battles that go on in here during these storms while jockeying for jackpots and hardest impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The key takeaway for me from the Euro is that the minimum QPF for the whole states of CT and MA is about 1.7". I'm sure the relative mins/maxes will shift around, but if large portions of SNE get much less than 1" QPF, that would be a monumental failure of the Euro. I'm not banking on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 mid levels aren't anywhere near closing off yet western peeps. Jay, do you SPC page for that. Also do you have an idea when the euro closed off 7H and 5H on it's 12z run....this is data I have been trying to find and can't. This is what I would like to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How much since 1pm when the GFS initialized? The 18z GFS had around 3" for NYC at 6z, so it's a complete fail. They will probably have a foot or more by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I love the east vs. west....north vs south...NE vs. SW...etc battles that go on in here during these storms while jockeying for jackpots and hardest impacts. I know it's so funny. I would be content with a middling number at my house as long as BOS excels as mentioned before. Why? Because wtf is the difference really in 3 days between 15 and 25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The 18z GFS had around 3" for NYC at 6z, so it's a complete fail. They will probably have a foot or more by then. No model had that band in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I love the east vs. west....north vs south...NE vs. SW...etc battles that go on in here during these storms while jockeying for jackpots and hardest impacts. deep down in your inner weenie mind you dream of the Euro's 1" QPF verifying....what would that be 18-20" with ratio's in that deform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NYC is getting pretty lucky with that narrow band of snow. That may save them if some of the eastern solutions are correct. It looks like just north and south of the city hasn't gotten much of anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No model had that band in LI. pretty damn close 0z hi res nam http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/rad23.html 12z hi res nam http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad10.html in fact the 18z hi res nam absolutely Destorys NYC then NE NJ Lower H.V between like 8pm and midnite while we wait for the frontogenesis to start to work up form cape around 11pm-Midnite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 mid levels aren't anywhere near closing off yet western peeps. I'll start worrying at 6z. If still not closed off, then EURO/NAM going down in flames, but before then, I'm riding the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 deep down in your inner weenie mind you dream of the Euro's 1" QPF verifying....what would that be 18-20" with ratio's in that deform Not deep down...right on the surface of my mind I hope the Euro's right . But its sort of relaxing to watch a storm with absolutely nothing at risk. Just call it and comment as I see fit with no agenda. Of course I'd rather be looking at a bullseye, but it is refreshing not to have anything at stake and just watch without freaking out over little things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No model had that band in LI. Euro did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice W. MA has moaned their way to the 24-36 range and meanwhile I get subsidence and only 18 inches Wow, Only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 James are you close to route 6 or closer to the ocean. I.E what part of Harwich you at I'm about half way between each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If the Euro's right it's a win for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If the Euro and NAM are in agreement, as a met, you don't want to go against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Jay, do you SPC page for that. Also do you have an idea when the euro closed off 7H and 5H on it's 12z run....this is data I have been trying to find and can't. This is what I would like to watch Tues 0z @ 7h Tues 12z @ 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NYC is getting pretty lucky with that narrow band of snow. That may save them if some of the eastern solutions are correct. It looks like just north and south of the city hasn't gotten much of anything though. 3 inches in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 The band on LI into NYC is OES/convergence zone..It really wasn't part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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