NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This is one the most fascinating nowcast I can remember. The stakes are huge. There's the EURO/NAM, and RGEM/GFS/HRRR/RAP. Actually, the GFS is kind of on its own now as a fizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro/NAM look better to me right now comparing radar/qpf fields to verification imho. Rgem party looks off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Having subsidence anxiety/death band envy already Did not feel that in '13 with either Nemo or the firehose storm Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The thing about the GFS, it tends to cut way back on qpf for every single major event including February 2013 which would have given half what people got. It's a POS even if it happens to be right this time but I wouldn't bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How so? they have 14 to 18 on W part of cape then 10-14 down the spine of cape thru N Harwich (Along route 6) to almost CHH, seems like they tried to put as much detail into that as they could We are all pulling for you James. I was on the Cape for the blizzard of 2005. Watched the Boston stations the NIGHT of the storm as snow was falling and they were still calling for 8-16 with a changeover to rain. We ended up with 36 inches...Nothing is set in stone IMO and I truly believe the Cape is the hardest location in the United States for snowfall forecasts. This storm could be anywhere from 12-26 inches tonight and I truly believe its a 50/50 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This is one the most fascinating nowcast I can remember. The stakes are huge. There's the EURO/NAM, and RGEM/GFS/HRRR/RAP. I will always remember this model war until I get old and my memory fades away....this is a classic battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice W. MA has moaned their way to the 24-36 range and meanwhile I get subsidence and only 18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When I look at the models quickly vs 21/22z....I think and this was a very fast glance...that the Euro was still too far west and probably too slow with the systems movement. The next hour is really critical as everything comes together, but I'd have liked to see that striated band of precip east of ACY actually right on the coast to confirm the Euro and some others western edge. JMHO.... looking at the radar the orientation of the developing bands etc - I mean at least right now they appear to be originating outward from a center that is a bit SE. Maybe it hooks up and in over the next few hours, don't know beats me. I'm seeing something very different. But, I'm not as well-versed in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's a new one. Big storms always bring out some interesting models haha. New on wxbell. It's actually been decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice W. MA has moaned their way to the 24-36 range and meanwhile I get subsidence and only 18 inches it was really little more than some whimpering. Let's see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wow, the GFS doesn't even look close. Not hard to tell who has a better handle right now.. Look at radar and sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think I'll up my second call from 22" to 24" for BOS. Seems reasonable based on latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 it was really little more than some whimpering. Let's see how it plays out. I know...just joking around / Im nervous on how it all plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice W. MA has moaned their way to the 24-36 range and meanwhile I get subsidence and only 18 inches If the RPM and HRRR are right you won't even get that !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS was already wrong for NYC. NYC reporting 4.5" as of 5:00 they got that freak Thin Meso Band....that went out to N shore of L.I I think 5 miles south of NYC has a dusting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I want some videos of this monster fellas. You better take a glory stroll through the heaviest rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I was on the Cape for the blizzard of 2005. Watched the Boston stations the NIGHT of the storm as snow was falling and they were still calling for 8-16 with a changeover to rain. We ended up with 36 inches...Nothing is set in stone IMO and I truly believe the Cape is the hardest location in the United States for snowfall forecasts. This storm could be anywhere from 12-26 inches tonight and I truly believe its a 50/50 call. Oh def. forecasting nightmare sometimes What town you posting from on the cape!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm seeing something very different. But, I'm not as well-versed in this. Nah you may be right I only looked quick plus I spilled about a gallon of gas all over myself trying to get generator filled. Probably seeing things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice W. MA has moaned their way to the 24-36 range and meanwhile I get subsidence and only 18 inches Yes, they moaned their way into a *FORECAST* for 24-36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice W. MA has moaned their way to the 24-36 range and meanwhile I get subsidence and only 18 inches Harvey Leonard has a 24+ jackpot range from south of Worcester up through my area (and yours/I'm in Pepperell). I like being in Harvey's jackpot zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS was already wrong for NYC. NYC reporting 4.5" as of 5:00How much since 1pm when the GFS initialized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Heavy snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My thoughts. Look at the initialization of the 18z suite/hour 3 and compare it to current conditions at H5. The only model that was remotely close to being correct was the NAM, the RGEM and GFS were way too far east with the setup. Look at the obs coming out of NYC already. The park is reporting 4.5" already and there are reasonably widespread 3-5" totals in the area. The GFS/RGEM, which have 5-10 total, are already close to busting(RGEM especially which had less than .6" liquid and nyc has .37, do you really think they only see .23" more) The 21z RAP is well west of the 20z RAP(20 miles or so) and made a decided trend towards letting the convection influence the low less. This matches the NAM. The Euro has been locked into the western track for days. To see it bust would be absolutely monumental, whereas I can believe the GFS being wrong due to it's poor performance and initialization scheme. At this point, my afternoon forecast will be based off the NAM and the EURO and discarding all other models. I'm taking a shot here, hope it works. I have absolutely no confidence, but it's time to make a call, and so I'm making one. Hope luck is on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I would LOVE if a Met or knowledgeable hobbyist could help me/ others with something http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html This is the water vapor loop......IT's apparently about the timing of the capture/closing off mid levels (which is different on models which results in their uncertainty) Now can anyone Use a current image of this loop and draw or point out what features we are looking at on WV to actually phase and where one should look on WV loop . It may be amateurish question but I would like to know and If I mis-stated what to look for please correct me. Would This be a good place to look, scroll to "Basic UA" then click on the 500MB analysis drop down and watch to see where/when that fully closes off. If I recall the euro started to close off 5H but waited longer on 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Oh def. forecasting nightmare sometimes What town you posting from on the cape!? I'll be getting reports from the town of Barnstable on the Cape. I'm actually up in the city of Boston now so this will be a fun one to watch! I personally think the Cape will surprise on the upside (just like in 2005) with Boston getting fluff supported 20-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How much since 1pm when the GFS initialized? .33 since 1 PM, .02 before 1 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Now cast is upon us... Shed little weary tears for wayward solutions when the wave is about to curl over your head. Stunned at the 12z Euro tho - wow. Model of choice do to the lesser of evils.. Daunting too, with it's point 45" numbers in SE zone; somewhat hearkens to 1978 which pummeled i that region particularly hard (NE RI ...) One of the more fantastic baroclinic leafs I can recall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dotb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Anyone have the most recent maps from the Boston stations? Good luck everyone. Just a novice here that likes to follow along on the big storms. Hope you all get 24+. Getting ready to hunker down with the family, with some good food and even better scotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The new GFS may in fact be worse than the NAM. At least the old GFS was occasionally correct and had known tendencies and biases. The upgrade has rendered it completely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Harvey Leonard has a 24+ jackpot range from south of Worcester up through my area (and yours/I'm in Pepperell). I like being in Harvey's jackpot zone!How he works with Wankum is beyond me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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