forkyfork Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 go against the euro at your own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS is my least favorite model in coastal systems....but the RGEM being east would be giving me a lot of pause if I forecasting in the ALB CWA. The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You can certainly see the nice sub zone on the GFS in the velocity fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 go against the euro at your own risk I've kneeled down before it last night...I'm on my knees praying to it Today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Out of curiosity, why does the deformation band often set up in central/potentially western as opposed to eastern mass? Been pretty surprised by the relative model consistency on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS gives Will and I around 2 feet..but I still toss it regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wouldn't sweat run to run deals with it. I think you will be close to the real good banding, but 10 miles could mean everything. Very tough call. Yeah figures.. i've noticed every run the RPM has had a different solution, but wasn't sure whether there was an "east" trend that perhaps the RPM was leading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Out of curiosity, why does the deformation band often set up in central/potentially western as opposed to eastern mass? Been pretty surprised by the relative model consistency on this. It doesn't. It depends on the situation. Many of our previous storms had the band east, it's just your perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yup, It will budge again a tic or so east i think It certainly isn't gonna go west twds the NAM after ticking east last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Out of curiosity, why does the deformation band often set up in central/potentially western as opposed to eastern mass? Been pretty surprised by the relative model consistency on this. Elevation may be a factor. Don't know how much of one because not familiar enough with deformation band dynamics to know how much the surface plays into it, but have seen the same thing with snow squalls dying as they get into the Boston basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It seems like the synoptic snows want to get going sooner than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm digging all the 12z runs thus far for the rt24 stretch from canton down to Fall River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, lots of focus on NYC for bust potential, but its huge up this way too. We could fluff our way to double digits, or will count the flurries while a secondary mega band destroys just East of us in NE. This is going to be tight in western areas...ALB has 10-14" forecast for the city, and two feet in the Berks. GFS says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS gives Will and I around 2 feet..but I still toss it regardless I have concerns of us winding up between the two bands. We still do well, but we'll have to see how things setup once everything gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sorry I'm mobile and old.... What's the consensus for BOS now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I have concerns of us winding up between the two bands. We still do well, but we'll have to see how things setup once everything gets going. That's a concern for every single poster here. We just don't know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can't wait for the radar to light up with dark green and yellow returns and thundersnows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It seems like the synoptic snows want to get going sooner than anticipated. Yeah. Could easily happen. Big swath of moisture just waiting to phase into snow. OES could be interesting for you today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It certainly isn't gonna go west twds the NAM after ticking east last nite Bufkit even for the Nam up here was 19.7", But the Nam is on an island and it just sank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bob how is it looking for the carver area? I am on my phone in vt. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 some of these runs this morning really have the I-91 crowd in MA riding the edge of good and great. I'm throwing my money on the Euro and spinning the wheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's a concern for every single poster here. We just don't know yet I'd feel pretty good on the south shore right now...they will avoid any screwzones I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sorry I'm mobile and old.... What's the consensus for BOS now? Just started looking for the first time since 6AM, Still looking like 2 feet on all guidance for there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If anything, snowfall west of HYA may be not high enough IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's a concern for every single poster here. We just don't know yet not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ginxy Did this link for 850 wind anomalies add another color for this storm , lol http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/NAM/ Haven't seen 6 SD on there before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Water vapor loop is pretty classic. Live link http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 not me AWT That area rocks in these. Foxboro/TAN over to Dedham or so will be crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Rpm eliminates the screwzone. I think I'll be fine here, OES already going. It's a bit north of BOS that I'd be more concerned but that's still up in the air. Please post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bob how is it looking for the carver area? I am on my phone in vt. Thanks . If your on the northern side of town I think we will be in a 2ndary max for the general area. I'd peg you in that 20-30" zone still. Southern side still a lot, like 16-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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