CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:23 PM, CT Rain said: Even places that dry slot in mid levels like E Mass could get some good stuff that continues with lots of cold above the boundary layer and nice convergence on the coastal front. Yeah. They may catch up later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:21 PM, CoastalWx said: There is def a min on BUFKIT near BOS, but lots of low level lift in the DGZ too. Let's hope that cancels out the negative. Honestly I don't see much in the way of flags other than a "shadowing" for awhile keeping me down to 18-20 vs 24+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:23 PM, BostonWX said: It's concerning to be honest. It is what it is. Just enjoy it and not worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:23 PM, BostonWX said: It's concerning to be honest. Sit back and enjoy. At close lead time in 2013, nothing forecasted the band in central CT. I don't think rpm is accounting for the counterbalancing factors alluded to. And if that shadow is 10 miles further east we jump for joy. So I'm letting it all happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Obs thread? Anything reaching the ground on the south coast yet? 14/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 SREFs are juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:24 PM, CoastalWx said: It is what it is. Just enjoy it and not worry. Anyone complaining about over a foot needs to be smacked (or at least that's what you all tell me when I worry haha). But the mid-storm meltdowns are usually entertaining when it's because 14" fell instead of 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:24 PM, CoastalWx said: It is what it is. Just enjoy it and not worry. I still would place it a bit further north but I don't like seeing it consistently imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:24 PM, CoastalWx said: It is what it is. Just enjoy it and not worry. Yeah jackpot fetishes are in full swing this morning. It's going to be a huge storm even outside the banding jackpots. 3 days ago this was a whiff. Helps keep things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:26 PM, BostonWX said: I still would place it a bit further north but I don't like seeing it consistently imby Weren't you telling me how you disrobed to an inch of grass showing snow a few weeks ago?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If it played out and I got 14 and I'm flanked by 30 inch amounts, that's a fair melt imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:26 PM, powderfreak said: Anyone complaining about over a foot needs to be smacked (or at least that's what you all tell me when I worry). But the mid-storm meltdowns are usually entertaining when it's because 14" fell instead of 20". I won't complain as I expect 15-16" here. I'd really be surprised if I go over 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Southern New England zoomed accumulation map for 1st Blizzard of 2015: Expand0 replies6 retweets0 favorites Reply Babaloo approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah jackpot fetishes are in full swing this morning. It's going to be a huge storm even outside the banding jackpots. 3 days ago this was a whiff. Helps keep things in perspective. And we were talking futility on the season.I think 10-15" here will do the trick. Can adjust later. We always seem to dry slot faster than progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 12:51 PM, JC-CT said: I tried to post this yesterday, but I don't remember if it went through with all the board issues. For posterity: If I stop to actually think about it, I really thought we were beyond a point where models would not be able to see a KU Blizzard 4 days out , or at least the Chance of one, I don't know the model history of this becauses I honestly didn't start paying attention until Saturday 12z runs. This is now billed as a Historic storm and models didn't see it at 96 hours, which to me is so unbelievably rare in this day and age I wish we had a discussion (perhaps we did) as to why this was in the models "blind" spot up toward 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:29 PM, CoastalWx said: Weren't you telling me how you disrobed to an inch of grass showing snow a few weeks ago?? My alter ego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:26 PM, butterfish55 said: Obs thread? Anything reaching the ground on the south coast yet? 14/7 Working out of Narragansett office (Pt Judith). Not reaching ground yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:29 PM, CoastalWx said: Weren't you telling me how you disrobed to an inch of grass showing snow a few weeks ago?? Expectations change...especially after the modeling over the last 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 A beautiful site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:26 PM, CoastalWx said: SREFs are juicy. Are they useable yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45519-january-26-28-blizzard-observationnowcast/ Observations/Nowcast thread started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah jackpot fetishes are in full swing this morning. It's going to be a huge storm even outside the banding jackpots. 3 days ago this was a whiff. Helps keep things in perspective. Personally, I don't care if I jackpot. Still, though, I'd like to see mby do well. Not thrilled about maps that I see that give me 6-12. Typically with benchmark storms, the deformation band will set up way west of where it's progged to do for this storm. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:30 PM, N. OF PIKE said: If I stop to actually think about it, I really thought we were beyond a point where models would not be able to see a KU Blizzard 4 days out , or at least the Chance of one, I don't know the model history of this becauses I honestly didn't start paying attention until Saturday 12z runs. This is now billed as a Historic storm and models didn't see it at 96 hours, which to me is so unbelievably rare in this day and age I wish we had a discussion (perhaps we did) as to why this was in the models "blind" spot up toward 96 hours. Someone mentioned the other day that a short-wave moved on shore which was a significant piece of the puzzle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:30 PM, N. OF PIKE said: If I stop to actually think about it, I really thought we were beyond a point where models would not be able to see a KU Blizzard 4 days out , or at least the Chance of one, I don't know the model history of this becauses I honestly didn't start paying attention until Saturday 12z runs. This is now billed as a Historic storm and models didn't see it at 96 hours, which to me is so unbelievably rare in this day and age I wish we had a discussion (perhaps we did) as to why this was in the models "blind" spot up toward 96 hours. Well it was on guidance the middle d last week though not to the extent that we see now. Then it disappeared for a few runs and we thought that was it but then the models started catching onto that 2nd shortwave catching up to the first and phasing. Carl Lewis chasing the fat kid. But yeah it is fairly rare to see such a bust inside 100 hours on a storm of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Pickles It wasn't until Thurs 0Z Euro ingested SW in NW Canada then boom, don't let anyone tell you data scarcity is a thing of the past thanks to Sats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Are they useable yet? They probably have an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Love me a sneaky KU. 100% invested in this pedestrian event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:36 PM, CoastalWx said: They probably have an idea.dude I mean dude can you believe this epicosity, I mean wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:37 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Love me a sneaky KU. 100% invested in this pedestrian event. 24.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 On 1/26/2015 at 1:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Southern New England zoomed accumulation map for 1st Blizzard of 2015: Expand0 replies6 retweets0 favorites Reply Hang it on your wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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