MarkO Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Someone should start a storm specific observation thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Like Steve alluded to...daydreaming as a youngster drawing maps with today's exact depiction including the cold pressing in. Always have to pinch myself...I'm healthy enough to enjoy this. I feel like I did before a big storm when I was 9...awesome stuff! I was born in NYC in 1969 (Queens) within a week of the Lynsey storm but wasn't old enough to pinch myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So when I wondered here why MEX had a snow number of 8 for tomorrow from the 12Z run last Friday maybe the mos uses other than straight op model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah I don't think this will beat Feb 2013 for the widespread 24"+ totals. This feels a bit more like January 2011...maybe slightly better. 1/12/11? we don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I was born in NYC in 1969 (Queens) within a week of the Lynsey storm but wasn't old enough to pinch myself . Good luck. I was lucky enough to be home for the weekend of the Lindsay storm from college (I was a senior). NYC area jack. Mby got 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So when I wondered here why MEX had a snow number of 8 for tomorrow from the 12Z run last Friday maybe the mos uses other than straight op model data. MOS has a ""memory"...it will try and match similar setups from the past. That's where it can be more useful than actual raw guidance sometimes. One reason the FWC guidance was pretty good...much better than NGM model itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Boston is a min on most me so models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think that deform band will be a little further west than depicted. Seems to often work out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 MOS has a ""memory"...it will try and match similar setups from the past. That's where it can be more useful than actual raw guidance sometimes. One reason the FWC guidance was pretty good...much better than NGM model itself. And sometimes it's off...it has Montpelier with an 8 and 8, implying 16-20" in north-central VT with this system lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Southern New England zoomed accumulation map for 1st Blizzard of 2015: Expand0 replies6 retweets0 favorites Reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 And sometimes it's off...it has Montpelier with an 8 and 8, implying 16-20" in north-central VT with this system lol. Yeah it's not perfect by any means. You obviously don't want to take it by itself...but combined with some other guidance it can be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 And sometimes it's off...it has Montpelier with an 8 and 8, implying 16-20" in north-central VT with this system lol. Well, obviously you just don't recognize it's greatness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 MOS has a ""memory"...it will try and match similar setups from the past. That's where it can be more useful than actual raw guidance sometimes. One reason the FWC guidance was pretty good...much better than NGM model itself. Thanks Will. Explains it's usefulness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 And sometimes it's off...it has Montpelier with an 8 and 8, implying 16-20" in north-central VT with this system lol.You guys are in a weird spot for this one. I do think you get at least 6 inches in the hills along the spine. I'm not buying the guidance that has you at .25 QPF or less. East facing slopes will have moistureleft over to wring out of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah I don't think this will beat Feb 2013 for the widespread 24"+ totals. This feels a bit more like January 2011...maybe slightly better. I guess that was considered a KU because of the widespread-ness anD this one isn't for the opposite reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah I don't think this will beat Feb 2013 for the widespread 24"+ totals. This feels a bit more like January 2011...maybe slightly better. It really is amazing the amount of large SNE coastal bombs lately. It's like run of the mill 6-12" nor'easters have gone out of style...and now you guys get nothing for half a winter followed by a HECS or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6z MAV is puking 8's in the snow cats everywhere for 12z tomorrow and 12z Wed. I'll give the old MOS credit...it was piling on the 6s and 8s for awhile before the deterministic models had this. 0z MEX has an 8 for Fri too... when Jerry posted on Friday what's up with the 8 Mex on Monday when models had scrapes that got my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Like Steve alluded to...daydreaming as a youngster drawing maps with today's exact depiction including the cold pressing in. Always have to pinch myself...I'm healthy enough to enjoy this. I feel like I did before a big storm when I was 9...awesome stuff!I don't think guys much younger than me doodled...probably used some type of tech devices!We will see how this goes. Convection closer to coast off NC than some of the models right now. I had nightmares about taint last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You guys are in a weird spot for this one. I do think you get at least 6 inches in the hills along the spine. I'm not buying the guidance that has you at .25 QPF or less. East facing slopes will have moisture left over to wring out of the atmosphere. There's a good deal of cold dry arctic air in place up here. There's really pretty weak mid-level forcing by the time it gets up here. Most of the lift is way up there, with dry low levels. I'd just like 3-4" to get to 70" at home on the season. We've had a couple good events up here where literally everyone else was pouring rain, so it comes and goes. At least we aren't getting whiffed AND rained on, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I gotta say I am totally amped for this. Both the GFS and NAM (and I'll infer the Euro too) have just remarkable dendritic growth - I've honestly never seen anything like this on BUFKIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ginxybullseye. NiceNot happening, every time someone says that, never pans out.Ray to ORH to Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I gotta say I am totally amped for this. Both the GFS and NAM (and I'll infer the Euro too) have just remarkable dendritic growth - I've honestly never seen anything like this on BUFKIT. How does it look for is further northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Rpm would be 12 to 16 in boston flanked by 24 to 30 on either side. I would melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm just starting to familiarize myself with sref, at what time does the next set come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Decent looking oes band lining up off the eastern MA coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It seems like Waterbury public schools are always closed. They may not have school for the entire week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How does it look for is further northeast? There is def a min on BUFKIT near BOS, but lots of low level lift in the DGZ too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There is def a min on BUFKIT near BOS, but lots of low level lift in the DGZ too. Even places that dry slot in mid levels like E Mass could get some good stuff that continues with lots of cold above the boundary layer and nice convergence on the coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Whats's the deal with the 4 km NAM shafting the Berks? wouldn't it take a shift east for that to happen? Also, not really buying any models that shaft SE burbs of Boston. That is historically a sweet spot plus we are already seeing OES echos into that area (even if they are not yet reaching the ground). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There is def a min on BUFKIT near BOS, but lots of low level lift in the DGZ too. It's concerning to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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