OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Actually second look and that's west of the Euro features. Deformation setting up from DXR-BAF-EEN-IZG. Coastal front PVD-BOS then offshore of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Actually second look and that's west of the Euro features. Deformation setting up from DXR-BAF-EEN-IZG. Coastal front PVD-BOS then offshore of ME. I am very much ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's not hard to see the features in the QPF field. The deformation would be the white dash, and the coastal front the blue dash. And very much not run out of Kevin's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 kevin wont like that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Haven't even looked at Euro yet but BOX says game for on W MA! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 353 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 ...A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... MAZ002>004-008>011-026-261700- /O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.150127T0000Z-150128T0600Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER 353 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 20 TO 30 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. * TIMING...WHILE THE STORM IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN WHITE-OUT / BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE- THREATENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. * WINDS...NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH. THE HEIGHT OF THE WINDS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON... TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH THEIR DESTINATION BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS. && $$ FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 euro was great 24 plus for most Haven't even looked at Euro yet but BOX says game for W MAURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA353 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015...A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THEAREA MAINLY FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLYWEDNESDAY...MAZ002>004-008>011-026-261700-/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.150127T0000Z-150128T0600Z/WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER353 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ANHOUR AT TIMES.* TIMING...WHILE THE STORM IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY LINGERING INTOEARLY WEDNESDAY...THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE TONIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN WHITE-OUT/ BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE-THREATENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.* WINDS...NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 TO45 MPH. THE HEIGHT OF THE WINDS WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MOREINCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MOREINCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELLTREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED ORUNTREATED SURFACES.ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAYAFTERNOON... TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACHTHEIR DESTINATION BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOWSNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS.&&$$FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE ATWWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTONYOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK ATWWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTONYOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT@NWSBOSTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Cant sleep much, way too amped. Just a bit if dozing off and a touch of R.E.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the box discussion is awesome one of the best i read in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 i tried and couldnt think ill take a nap later stay up for a bit sleep 6 to 1 and stay up from there perfect week to have off Cant sleep much, way too amped. Just a bit if dozing off and a touch of R.E.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 a keeper of an AFD from Taunton 341am... some excerpts: Area forecast discussionNational Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts341 am EST Monday Jan 26 2015Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...*** potentially historic winter storm ramps up tonight **** blizzard conditions expected* up to 2 feet of snow for many areas with higher amounts possible* damaging winds likely coast especially cape/islands...gusts 60 to 75 miles per hour* pockets of major coastal flooding possible along the eastern MassachusettscoastOverview...confidence remains high for a historical blizzard impactingsouthern New England beginning late in the day today.However...that does not mean there are not some mesoscaledifferences which will need to be monitored as we approaches. Atissue at this point...are differences in the final low pressure depthprior to the occlusion process ranging from 978 hpa on the NAM/CMCto 984 on the GFS. At odds also...is the likelihood of twodistinct banded snow features...the first...a long and significantdeformation/f-gen band stretching from coastal main into interiorsouthern New England...the tip of which could range anywhere from theCT valley to metropolitan-west and the Merrimack valley. Available WRFoutputs are in disagreement here...with the nmm further west withthe heavier banding...while the arw is suggesting the east. The otherarea will likely be form central Rhode Island through about the S shore/bosmetropolitan of mass as a coastal front develops and wavers inland. So itis likely that there will actually be two bullseyes of snowtotals to watch...where storm total snowfall is likely to exceed 2feet. Finally...this banding location will likely be dependent onfinal track...which are still in some mesoscale-scale dispute with theGFS remaining more progressive and outside the 40/70 benchmarkwhile the ecwmf/NAM are just inside and much slower...stalling thelow pressure only about 50 nm southeast of ack. Therefore...the banding andaxis of 2.5-3.0 inch total quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are likely to waver abit...and will need to be updated as the event is unfolding. Willtry to show this two-bullseye snowfall somewhat with thisupdate...but given that this will be high impact storm across allof southern New England wholesale changes will note be made.Total snowfall/blizzard...As stated there is the likelihood of two banding locations...onefrom typical middle-level deformation and negative epv...with the othercloser to the surface in vicinity of of the coastal front across Rhode Island-southeast Massachusetts ornear the I-95 corridor. While nailing these down is difficultalmost 24 hours out...mesoscale models do at the very leastindicate that within either of these bands...dendritic growth willlikely be near a maximum and with bands of very negative epv...2-3in/hour snowfall amounts within either of these bands are likelybeginning late tonight...and continuing well into the day on Tuesdayas these bands slowly pivot and begin a slow shift to the east. Giventhe slow movement...this also suggests that some areas could seesnowfall amounts of about a foot in 6 hours or even less.Therefore...feel the mention of 2+ feet of total snowfall acrossinterior to east Massachusetts/Rhode Island and even northern CT is possible...with a fewspots approaching 3 feet not out of the question. Regarding theblizzards...BUFKIT mixing profiles still support winds near blizzcriteria along with this potentially heavy snow bands within thecurrent blizzard warnings...so not planning on making anyadjustments at this time.With the chance for lower snow ratios nearer to the coastal frontlocations...colocated with the stronger winds...will have to watchportions of southeast Massachusetts /particularly near the coast/ for the higherlikelihood of damage/power outages. Higher ratios further inland/colder air/ are expected.It appears ocean enhancement will likely delay the end timeespecially for portions of the S shore...southeast Massachusetts and east Rhode Island late Tuesdayinto Wednesday...which may snow until after noon on Wednesday. However...byTuesday night...expect slowly diminishing snowfall rates from west to east.Winds...GFS has backed down a bit on the low level jet...now supporting 65 knots ath92 from southern Rhode Island through bos and points southeast. However...NAM/ECMWFcontinue lean closer to 70-80 knots. BUFKIT mixing profiles supportat least 75-80 percent of this momentum being mixed especiallycloser to the coastlines. Therefore...can still support wind gustsapproaching hurricane velocity near the shore...particularly theouter arm of Cape Cod and Nantucket although this tapersinland...still could see some wind gusts 50-60 miles per hour as far inlandas Rhode Island and the I-95 corridor. As mentioned above...where thiscoincides with lower ratio /more water laden/ snow...could producemore tree damage and therefore potentially more power outages.Coastal flooding...for more on this...please see the coastal flooding section below.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 kevin wont like that lol I'll take RGEM/EURO/GGEM over the NAM anyway of the week and win every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the box discussion is awesome one of the best i read in awhileYes, good read. I just went over it to see why, at least in my area, they don't seem to put as much weight in the euro/nam solution. The disco basically says that I could play in the deform band, but their p/c and snowfall graphic suggest not. Doesn't really matter anyway. Stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll take RGEM/EURO/GGEM over the NAM anyway of the week and win every time.If the western models were to verify, I seriously doubt that the tolland hole would verify. Don't even need to try and rationalize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 If the western models were to verify, I seriously doubt that the tolland hole would verify. Don't even need to try and rationalize that. Hey..no need to jack unless that's someone's thing. Of course we'd all love it..but you can't get pissed for getting 24 instead of 36 if you think about it. I know Noyes thinks this area and SE mass..but I have a feeling he's wrong about # 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 euro looks like the nam I'll take RGEM/EURO/GGEM over the NAM anyway of the week and win every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 euro looks like the nam No it doesn't. The euro gives me 24+..The Nam 12.. Even the normal severely west biased ARW members are east of the NAM lol. That tells you all you need to know. Also the Euro ens are east of the op.so a 25 -30 mile tick east at 12z won't be surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm off to do a quick 5 miler. Last day for at least 2 I'll be able to run..Then another coming Friday. Cold out there 12.4 with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Thundersnow looks like a decent bet under the heaviest banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sorta disappointed at the lack of heavy hitting science in these AFDs tonight. The plains and midwest offices usually go all out in their AFDs in big-time scenarios. To be fair, I think the AFD is the flagship product of a lot of central US offices. Not sure if that's the case out east. Don't mind me, I'm just browsing your thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 LAST CALL.. sorry this is late VERIZON went down at 130am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like box lowered my high end total from 33 to 31 inches. Disappointment all around. [kidding] Should be an interesting couple of days. After I signed off last night, I became pretty sick. Kind of sucks because I will probably be sleeping for most of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Let's hope the nam is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 most areas it is gfs shows you the love at 6z we are all going to get it good No it doesn't. The euro gives me 24+..The Nam 12.. Even the normal severely west biased ARW members are east of the NAM lol. That tells you all you need to know. Also the Euro ens are east of the op.so a 25 -30 mile tick east at 12z won't be surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Gfs looks like its a tick NW at 24 and pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Here is a reason to spike footballs, 9 out of 10 times in this event we should see more snow than this graphic. That's not a bad lower bound. A good place to cap it is this graphic, 9 out of 10 times we end up lower than these amounts. This one does show HPC's thinking on the coastal front/OES enhancement jackpot, and the possible location of deformation jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yea buddy, here we go. I'm up for the day already, let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Thundersnow looks like a decent bet under the heaviest banding. NAM Bufkit sounding for BOS is a little MAULish around 03z tonight. Wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS ticks NW. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 i like my little jackpot on that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro ticked east. Now east models tick west. We have growing consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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