SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So outside of NYC/SWCT, it seems things have mostly remained the same for much of the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 you almost have to go with the euro its been most consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro still has the stall and loop dee loop. No offense NYC but I'd like it to be further east. Still 7h dryslot towards the end for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Is there any way, from a now-casting perspective, to see how this path will ultimately play out at this point? Or will that become more evident tomorrow? Need the convection to fire around dawn. Then there will be something to track provided any of the NOAA buoys are still working. Euro tuck still seems extreme to me but there's just no way to know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You can always go a few miles east to chase it, somewhere its going to be awesome. Well I have to get a hotel, so I'd like the hotel to be in the sweet spot. 25 miles could be the difference in 12" or 30" seems like Hartford or Worcester would be a pretty safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So outside of NYC/SWCT, it seems things have mostly remained the same for much of the region? Yeah most of SNE is gonna get crushed one way or the other...as messenger said, the fringes are where these small wobbles matter the most. Euro mixes the Cape (at least central and outer cape) while most of the other 00z guidance does not....and of course NYC gets 20"+ on the Euro while other guidance gives them close to 10". For most of SNE, we are not talking much except for model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RIP Block Island. It might just become uninhabitable with the combination of wind and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro still has the stall and loop dee loop. No offense NYC but I'd like it to be further east. Still 7h dryslot towards the end for the east. As long as we both get 20" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Took a look at the mid levels. Stuff by NYC just exploded when 5h closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like 24-36 as a swath was the right call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah most of SNE is gonna crushed one way or the other...as messenger said, the fringes are where these small wobbles matter the most. Euro mixes the Cape (at least central and ouer cape) while most of the other 00z guidance does not....and of course NYC gets 20"+ on the Euro while other guidance gives them close to 10". For most of SNE, we are not talking much except for model noise. Nice continuity for many, thank you. Based on that map bboughton just posted it still looks like~2' for pretty much all of Middlesex and Essex counties, with the weenie south shore jack.In fact, as you said, looks like pretty much all of sne is getting nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Im still uneasy for my bro and mom back home in NJ but I cant complain about the euro for my yard. Regardless, entire SNE is crushed, awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If still be inclined to drop amounts from NYC west by 6-10 inches or so, this could be the euro playing gradual catchup, if we shift 40-50 miles more I think 15 inches in NYC is about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like 24-36 as a swath was the right call? I still think it will be hard to get that wide of a 24"+ area depicted on the Euro...but we will see how things look in the morning. It does stall in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well I have to get a hotel, so I'd like the hotel to be in the sweet spot. 25 miles could be the difference in 12" or 30" seems like Hartford or Worcester would be a pretty safe bet. Id take my chances with Worcester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If still be inclined to drop amounts from NYC west by 6-10 inches or so, this could be the euro playing gradual catchup, if we shift 40-50 miles more I think 15 inches in NYC is about rightJust look at how much the euro ex bell totals have moved from what people have posted here. The 12z 24 had 36" into snj.I doubt the models are done coming together for most it doesn't matter much tougher for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Id take my chances with Worcester HFD not a safe bet. Go to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RIP Block Island. It might just become uninhabitable with the combination of wind and snow I can't tell you how many times I drew this exact map up as a kid when living in SRI, I mean in the 60s,this whole week has been deja vu for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I really feel for NWS Upton 4:30 am crew, really tough forecast for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I really feel for NWS Upton 4:30 am crew, really tough forecast for them. Me too. If it doesn't loop back west in euro fashion then it's a forecast fail. I still think 10-20" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good night all. start of a long week tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I really feel for NWS Upton 4:30 am crew, really tough forecast for them. Yea their western zones into nyc will be cutting it close. Very tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Crushed! See y'all in a few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yea their western zones into nyc will be cutting it close. Very tough call. Eastern LI is safe but I could easily see NYC seeing 12 or 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Eastern LI is safe but I could easily see NYC seeing 12 or 28 Yeah I'd feel good for a huge hit from central LI eastward, but that NYC region is a tough call. I wonder if we see the other guidance tick west tomorrow morning toward the Euro but also a small tick east by the Euro? That 70/30 compromise that often happens when the Euro is an outlier. The Euro outlier this close in has me believing that it is mostly correct...it's a damned good model and rarely screws up this close in. That said, "mostly right" still means a level of correction could happen...25 miles is a big deal down there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Took a look at the mid levels. Stuff by NYC just exploded when 5h closes off. That's why it's hard for me to believe models like the GFS and NAM when they close off at 500mb over NJ/DE, and NYC gets just light-mod snow. They underestimate the western limits of the snow/precip shield regularly. It might not be as extreme in NYC as the Euro shows, but I'd weight that a lot more than those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Weenie Meso Model BTV WRF 4km shifted east from earlier NIce Banding Signal of course http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah I'd feel good for a huge hit from central LI eastward, but that NYC region is a tough call. I wonder if we see the other guidance tick west tomorrow morning toward the Euro but also a small tick east by the Euro? That 70/30 compromise that often happens when the Euro is an outlier. The Euro outlier this close in has me believing that it is mostly correct...it's a damned good model and rarely screws up this close in. That said, "mostly right" still means a level of correction could happen...25 miles is a big deal down there right now.HpC still feels there's some adjusting to do. I think ultimately the euro will stall the low east of where it progged tonight. COMBO. BEYOND 12Z/27...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF APPEARS BEST AS THE GFS LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...QUICKER THAN PREFERRED. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF MEAN...12Z EC MEAN AND 00Z NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT A TRACK THAT IS FASTER TO DEPART THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z ECMWF DID ADJUST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE NAM/SREF/EC MEAN COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN REGARDING POSITION/STRENGTH. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED AS BOTH THE 00Z UKMET/CMC APPEAR EITHER UNSUPPORTED IN POSITION OR STRENGT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I know none of you guys care but, this panel of the deformation band proves this was run right out of my basement. I am pretty stoked for this one, hardly ever am I in the JP zone. I'd pay a lot of $ for this run to verify. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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