SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 wait wutthe east shifts have my weenie concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 EWB? I'm about 4 miles NE 22.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Steve can I get BOS please? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the east shifts have my weenie concerned. Same down here in the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Someone knowledgeable do euro pbp please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DT UPDATE THE SHIFT EAST REAL OR NOT? right NOW my Model of choice is the RGEM --high resolution shore range Canadian model Quite frankly I don't know. For those of us who are convinced that the shift east is the REAL deal may I remind you of some of the recent flaws / busts of the NAM GFS Just within this particular event some of these models which are now shifting east with the Low and the heaviest snow have also on a few mode runs showed huge snow mounts close to what the European model was showing. So let's not say this as a case where the GFS has never showed huge snow amounts in NYC / NJ or Philly because that is not true. It is safe to say that the GFS has not had as much snow as the European... But to argue that the GFS model has never had as much knows the European is just well wrong. If you take a look of the temperatures in and around the VA MD you wIll see the temperatures are much too warm to support snow. at 11pm DCA is 46. Even Winchester is 37 with dew point fo 32. The HRRR (high resolution shore range model) has precipitation going over snow around 4AM in Northwest a AND 6AM in dca. It only snow in DCA fpor a few houts but it snows pretty good over the northwest 25% of VA central and Western Maryland into at least Noon. So those areas could in fact the actually get 4 inches of snow... but NOT DC and the immediate metro area. With regard to the issue of huge snow amounts in Philly NJ and NYC and interior se NY... Obviously the issue has to do with where does the main ocean low develop? The early Monday morning models are now showing a much more east track and that is entirely possible. However it is not at all certain and perhaps the European track might be correct after all. So if we take down the big snow amounts too far and it turns out that these short range models are too far to the east ...we end up with another complication in this difficult forecast ! Looking at the latest actual upper air data and soundings I am inclined to shift things more to the east and lower the snow mounts in Philly NJ and NYC. I do this not because of the weather models per se but I am noticing that the Friday night Saturday Low from two days ago ....which was supposed to move up into southeastern Canada and become a 50 / 50 Low ....has fallen apart and is much weaker than some of the data had suggested yesterday. This in turn means that the system coming off the coast of the Middle Atlantic states on Monday can swing further out into the Atlantic and this may be what some of the short range models are seeing a more east track. As I have said many times before for a Middle Atlantic snowstorm -- not new England --you need ideally a -AO... a -NAO and 50 / 50 low. The AO is only neutral and the 50/50 Low has fallen apart. And with that explanation DT drops the bat at home plate and trots around the bases because IMO he pretty much nailed what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Someone knowledgeable do euro pbp please... Will, Brian got this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 https://twitter.com/tjdelsanto/status/559583222707658752 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 And with that explanation DT drops the bat at home plate and trots around the bases because IMO he pretty much nailed what's going on. Good call by you though. You saw it coming and I neglected to. But lets wait 10 more mins..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro won't really start going for another 5-6 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 https://twitter.com/tjdelsanto/status/559583222707658752 more like 4 per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro won't really start going for another 5-6 minutes. Lets bring this baby home..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 just started Euro won't really start going for another 5-6 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good call by you though. You saw it coming and I neglected to. But lets wait 1080 more mins..... Fixed that for you. There's a lot of time left, and if history is a guide we will chase the details on the stall point right into the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Fixed that for you. There's a lot of time left, and if history is a guide we will chase the details on the stall point right into the end. Yea, I am nervous about that....we have a really strong consensus, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro initialized, here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The plane will be getting out of the gate in 10 minutes so I hope I can see some EURO Action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yea, I am nervous about that....we have a really strong consensus, though. I just don't want the stall to sneak east of same Race Point. That blows for all of us in SNE. Let's keep it just SE of the Cape. Euro is rolling...and... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Watch the EURO be a CC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Fixed that for you. There's a lot of time left, and if history is a guide we will chase the details on the stall point right into the end. One more piece of guidance and it's a chip shot field goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good luck folks. Euro out to hour 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If this thing jogs east, NYC thread is going to be a sad, sad place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 One more piece of guidance and it's a chip shot field goal. Let's hope it doesn't mimic Vinateiri kicking the point after. See pro bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Was supposed to drive over there from Ohio to view this thing. Starting to wonder if it's a good thing I didnt. The GFS last night concerned me even with the error it had. But these east shifts are making me glad I didn't travel that way yet. Was gonna leave at 6am. Maybe the euro will leave hope but as difficult as this forecast is becoming it may be too much risk to drive 10hrs. Still will be significant but not like 13' if these shifts keep happening. Good luck to you all though. I know I had a blast chasing the one in 2013 just not sure if this one will be worth the 10 hour trip. Hope it comes to fruition for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If this thing jogs east, NYC thread is going to be a sad, sad place Hopefully it makes everyone happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If this thing jogs east, NYC thread is going to be a sad, sad place It typically is that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can anybody say, bullseye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Key with Euro Was the Phase Timing, it was quickest phaser and just had ML lows in areas favorable area and longer time for NYC , most expect a little bit later phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The suspense is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Key with Euro Was the Phase Timing, it was quickest phaser and just had ML lows in areas favorable area and longer time for NYC , most expect a little bit later phase Time to change the sig "Who will be the first to derobe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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