TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Heck I discovered tonight that our snowfall web graphic had an error in the code that made 18-24" and 24-36" the same color. We didn't have Ginxy's chartreuse until we hit 36-48". I managed to find the error in the coding (as simple as a duplicate number 10). But these are the differences people notice between offices. I thought GYX was really good with this one, honestly not kissing ass either. Several others liked the map earlier today too I noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ukie was fine for most...a little worrisome for western folks, but you know the deal with the western fringe of the heavy QPF in these types of systems UKIE is terrific posted it on the banter thread by mistake. NOGAPs is now west too, so essentially total consensus with this thing running up 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets. This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely. I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches. I agree. I thought the initial 24-36" right out of the gate was silly. I went 18"+. 24-36 is a range reserved for about 6 hours out, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 James gets smoked on the UKIE. That would be a sweet run..but I'm sure the totals will be more banded in nature given the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ukie was fine for most...a little worrisome for western folks, but you know the deal with the western fringe of the heavy QPF in these types of systems Will, What's the deal with the cape? Take a look at those 10m wind speeds... Combine it with the snow.... and whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I was looking at the older ukie I think guys.... My mistake..... FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Cape is definitely going to see some ridiculous conditions. The paste they get for a good chunk of the storm combined with the wind is gonna cause some power issues down there probably....even though their trees are pretty hardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ukie was fine for most...a little worrisome for western folks, but you know the deal with the western fringe of the heavy QPF in these types of systems BOOM YA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Cherry picking the key points from the diagnostic they found no issues with the NAM/GFS init. I thought I'd read the EC ENS were in total agreement with the OP, sounds like that wasn't exactly the case. BEYOND 12Z/27...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF APPEARS BESTAS THE GFS LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...QUICKERTHAN PREFERRED. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF MEAN...12Z EC MEAN AND 00ZNAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT A TRACK THAT IS FASTER TODEPART THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF.THEREFORE REGARDING POSITION/STRENGTH...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This could be the Blizzard of 2005 all over again...aka, boston mets discounting snows on the Cape, only to scramble at the last minute and jack up accumulations, or just refuse to acknoledge the fact that we got 3 feet of snow (I'm looking at you Pete Bouchard, called for 8-16 with a changeover to rain, ended up with 36). Time and time again there's too much model hugging when it comes to rain/snow lines over the Cape with these historic storms (and I'm not just saying that b/c I live there as I'm in the city now). As the LP bombs out heavy banding makes it very hard for temps to actually climb above freezing and change precip (look at 850mb temps and you'll see exactly what im talking about). Canadian and NAM have Cape as Jackpot with 28-34. This one will be interesting... I think I have a shot to beat the 25" I got in that one....maybe even Nemo's 27" #1 Is April '97...only 30-spot of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 just looking at GGEM... persistent subsidence zone in all the models over metrowest Boston, all the banding features really just sit in same place while system stalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Heck I discovered tonight that our snowfall web graphic had an error in the code that made 18-24" and 24-36" the same color. We didn't have Ginxy's chartreuse until we hit 36-48". I managed to find the error in the coding (as simple as a duplicate number 10). But these are the differences people notice between offices. what is that colors name anyways? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I was in a subsidence band for a while in Nemo. Hope that doesn't happen again but I'm not going to whine about it since they aren't very predictable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wouldn't worry to hard right now about the subsidence. There will be snowfall mins, but good easterly flow will generate a lot of steady snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I thought GYX was really good with this one, honestly not kissing ass either. Several others liked the map earlier today too I noted. I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare. As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 just looking at GGEM... persistent subsidence zone in all the models over metrowest Boston, all the banding features really just sit in same place while system stalls We can prob get one more tic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I was in a subsidence band for a while in Nemo. Hope that doesn't happen again but I'm not going to whine about it since they aren't very predictable I'll whine about it all day long until im covered again. Going through a tough time in my life with dad not doing well, I foking need this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 what is that colors name anyways? Lol It's just a number to me (11) our coding doesn't list the color name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wouldn't worry to hard right now about the subsidence. There will be snowfall mins, but good easterly flow will generate a lot of steady snows. well you know its a huge storm when scott says goodnight 2-3 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Should start a thread for people looking to escape the subsidence zone and find deformation land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's just a number to me (11) our coding doesn't list the color name. thats not helpful chrissy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think I have a shot to beat the 25" I got in that one....maybe even Nemo's 27" #1 Is April '97...only 30-spot of my life. Here's NAM Output for Hyannis down on the Cape. All precipiation falling as snow. Total QPF 2.75. SFC 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 7P 25-JAN 1.6 -10.3 1011 51 1 537 529 MON 1A 26-JAN -2.2 -9.4 1017 66 19 0.00 539 526 MON 7A 26-JAN -2.6 -8.8 1019 76 65 0.00 541 526 MON 1P 26-JAN -0.3 -5.8 1018 83 87 0.00 543 529 MON 7P 26-JAN 0.9 -5.8 1014 91 93 0.09 544 533 TUE 1A 27-JAN 0.8 -4.6 1006 98 97 0.44 542 538 TUE 7A 27-JAN 0.1 -5.6 994 97 99 0.83 534 539 TUE 1P 27-JAN 0.9 -5.9 989 94 82 0.70 528 537 TUE 7P 27-JAN 0.0 -8.7 991 93 63 0.39 526 533 WED 1A 28-JAN -3.4 -8.9 999 91 99 0.20 526 527 WED 7A 28-JAN -6.4 -12.0 1007 88 91 0.09 531 525 WED 1P 28-JAN -3.9 -9.9 1012 86 86 0.01 537 527 WED 7P 28-JAN -1.5 -9.2 1017 77 55 0.00 540 526 THU 1A 29-JAN -3.8 -8.0 1020 74 4 0.00 541 525 THU 7A 29-JAN -5.9 -7.1 1023 83 8 0.00 545 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare. As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes. The glaring mistake that I saw right off the bat is that obviously, they didn't know where the banding would set up....so they blanketed. Fine. But you blanket with a the tamer range, not 24-36" Say 18"+, and perhaps outline "hot spots" where the possibility for 2' or more is highest. That is how I played it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare. As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes. Yeah someone will get 30" in this probably...but I wouldn't be forecasting that anywhere. I would feel much better just broadbrushing 18-24 with perhaps a few stratigic spots for 24"+ like Harvey did...though even that is not easy. Prob south shore where they will get enhancement for a time off the ocean and snow is last to shut off Tues night or early Wed morning...maybe north shore too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 UKIE is terrific posted it on the banter thread by mistake. NOGAPs is now west too, so essentially total consensus with this thing running up 70 Maybe a little overdone with the western qpf cutoff seeing as I have to fill in for MPM's absence. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Here's NAM Output for Hyannis down on the Cape. All precipiation falling as snow. Total QPF 2.75. SFC 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 7P 25-JAN 1.6 -10.3 1011 51 1 537 529 MON 1A 26-JAN -2.2 -9.4 1017 66 19 0.00 539 526 MON 7A 26-JAN -2.6 -8.8 1019 76 65 0.00 541 526 MON 1P 26-JAN -0.3 -5.8 1018 83 87 0.00 543 529 MON 7P 26-JAN 0.9 -5.8 1014 91 93 0.09 544 533 TUE 1A 27-JAN 0.8 -4.6 1006 98 97 0.44 542 538 TUE 7A 27-JAN 0.1 -5.6 994 97 99 0.83 534 539 TUE 1P 27-JAN 0.9 -5.9 989 94 82 0.70 528 537 TUE 7P 27-JAN 0.0 -8.7 991 93 63 0.39 526 533 WED 1A 28-JAN -3.4 -8.9 999 91 99 0.20 526 527 WED 7A 28-JAN -6.4 -12.0 1007 88 91 0.09 531 525 WED 1P 28-JAN -3.9 -9.9 1012 86 86 0.01 537 527 WED 7P 28-JAN -1.5 -9.2 1017 77 55 0.00 540 526 THU 1A 29-JAN -3.8 -8.0 1020 74 4 0.00 541 525 THU 7A 29-JAN -5.9 -7.1 1023 83 8 0.00 545 527 I'm puzzled by the lower totals for the Cape - at this stage. There's no indication in any model other than the old Euro that there will be anything must mostly snow for about 50/70% of the Cape. Indeed it looks like a 15-25" type deal even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Should start a thread for people looking to escape the subsidence zone and find deformation land. Thats the problem with stalled storms you rot in either. Fronto wallop then stall you get crushed or its wind blown shattered dendrites for hours, been there done that probably 5-8 times in my life, but also been on the other end 5-8 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll whine about it all day long until im covered again. Going through a tough time in my life with dad not doing well, I foking need this. I hear, man. As Scott intimated earlier, I lost mine suddenly in March, while my life was already in shambles. I still struggle every day, mentally, but gotta take it day to day. This $hit helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare. As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes. Still feeling the 14-18" up here? I'm leaning 10-14" right now. These E/ESE ticks with the mid level centers have me thinking the best goodies stay to my SE. I'd like to be at my old place in Auburn for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah someone will get 30" in this probably...but I wouldn't be forecasting that anywhere. I would feel much better just broadbrushing 18-24 with perhaps a few stratigic spots for 24"+ like Harvey did...though even that is not easy. Prob south shore where they will get enhancement for a time off the ocean and snow is last to shut off Tues night or early Wed morning...maybe north shore too. Exactly. That is how i played it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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