forkyfork Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks -it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 pushing 50" on the NAM around ORH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm nude.....jimmy swaying int he breeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The NAM is gonna pump out some insane jackpot numbers over E and SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 pushing 50" on the NAM around ORH lol 50"? Not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Dryslots immediate Boston area by 45-48 hours. By then a lot has fallen and hopefully it picks up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs Where is that cirrus pic you had last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks - Correct- But one would still rather see it move e or se as we continue to close in on the storm rather than the opposite. Is the nam perfect? no. But it's still taken into account. If it would ever be right, it would be short time. Will rgem follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This NAM run breaks continuity all over the place with vorticity maxima ... I'd take this run with a grain of salt... Correct me if I'm wrong on two fronts John as I know you pay attention to these things: 1. The RGEM is often the most NW/tucked model in these situations. 2. The 18z RGEM and the 0z NAM are very similar. Later tuck and roll. I believe although the NAM is obviously going to miss details and no model will be spot on, the trend will continue tonight for a later initial capture. Whether it's convective feedback or just a true blue bias this last 18 months, seems to happen with every capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We'll get an entirely new scenario at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs Exactly .. .as much as we try, folks' just keep latching onto the latest run to promote their sadistic intent to feel horrible about matters. You know what? who cares -- are you guys really that freaked out about missing 29" over solid foot of fun? Hell, if it snow 5" here, plowable, in this pattern? you got like the start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks - The REGM and GFS have the same trend. Yes folks- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Some good low level stuff in ern MA in the aftn. Widespread hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 whoever gets under these bands will get over 3ft i think some of these runs are nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 50"? Not quite. I know it's not exact or necessarily correct, but on InstantWeatherMaps it has 46.7" as a max @ 51h in central mass http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks - the nam has had no continuity whatsoever it has yet to show the same solution for two consecutive runs Well geez guys, which model HAS shown continuity then? Oh wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There is no DS really. Keeps going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks - Meh - I will disagree. It's not much different than the RGEM which came at 40/70 from the SOUTH this last run. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I know it's not exact, but on InstantWeatherMaps it has 46.7" as a max @ 51h in central mass http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I know it's not exact, but on InstantWeatherMaps it has 46.7" as a max @ 51h in central mass http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051 That algorithm gave me 70" in Feb '13 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Dryslots immediate Boston area by 45-48 hours. By then a lot has fallen and hopefully it picks up again. I'm not even worried... Bigger picture looks damn good on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Suddenly more on the fence here on the NAM but for the position of the Low i would argue the precip shield is too eroded on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yeah Jerry hrs 45-51 we dry slot on this run... also don't get the finale best for last band as storm fills in and move away difference between 20 vs. 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We'll get an entirely new scenario at 6z. exactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 up to 47.1 so far lol 50"? Not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well geez guys, which model HAS shown continuity then? Oh wait... I will lay down a round at the next GTG (after February) if it doesn't cave on this run....finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well geez guys, which model HAS shown continuity then? Oh wait... Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We'll get an entirely new scenario at 6z. It will just (maybe) be a little less zonked at that point....or maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Don't care what the Nam shows, don't care what the GFS shows. C'mon guy's you know the drill. Should I bump the Feb 13 thread, yea Euro will probably bump east a few but Save a horse.that being said using Rays Cut NAM by 1/3rd and we are still destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's not really a DS. Plenty of low level forcing in very cold 850 temps. BOS is fine verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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