bboughton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Is this really what the GFS showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 slightly later capture did the trick NYC folks pulled the trigger too soon, was Euro vs. the rest which was all trending east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 look I am not one for this but what a tool,he has absolutely misrepresented every single model for the past 2 days, absolutely horrid. It is so weird that he and Harv are working for the same place.,he is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Excellent.The NAM is flattered you think that of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yeah I agree...probably not much of a concern down this way. for much of CT I went 18-24'' to start (but mentioned 24-36'' is possible) but before going ahead and going with those much higher totals 1) want to try and get an idea of where the heaviest banding traverses and 2) how does the banding act over time? Also before going much higher want to really get a handle on the exact track and positioning of the 700/850 lows and how they mature over time. Although if this run is given any credence, it should be less of a concern everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 . This x10000000. I only know bits and pieces of what's going on and if they only knew what's been going on over the last 24-30hrs behind the scenes. Well, we know now. When it says we're up and running at 100% on the banner, it sort of makes you open to criticism lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Beautiful run here and Eastern MA, but I would be sh*tting bricks if I had 24-36 forecasted for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 33 now. Cf briefly goes west of you but mainly stays right on the shoreline. We will see the rest of the suite - but like I said I've had the rug pulled out from me twice with these "new" improved model runs being on the SW edge of developing bombs. NAM just didn't get it together fast enough for some, that is the "trend" I expect we continue to see. Could get close for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The NAM is flattered you think that of it. Yes. I'd rather it not blow its load over sw CT again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6z-12z Tuesday the LP is basically moving directly north toward Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Man it's so insane to see that much snow being dumped on every run on every model over NE. Never thought I'd see 2 of the biggest storms ever in Boston in just 8 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Although if this run is given any credence, it should be less of a concern everywhere. given credence or not, anytime you're within this range are able to eliminate any flags that's always a good thing. If you're at this point now and raising more questions than you're answering that's never a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Jay with Astro tides at 10 flooding will be reduced, currently surge values are 3 ft for the worst tide with 2 for the 2nd. Seas are expected 25-35 feet. Will be some modest flooding and severe erosion but not nearly as bad if tides were Astro high http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=&stn= Any thoughts on Hull, MA? I trust your tide knowledge the most. I know that is not your geographic hood though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It shifted east but I doubt it is that far when ground truth is measured in 36 hours. It won't matter for most of us Jerry. It's just the tuck isn't going to occur, I do think the Euro is wrong in being that amped. I think the RGEM not being locked in with it is a huge red flag and the 18z RGEM doesn't look terribly different than the 0z NAM. This is a biblical hit for eastern MA/RI/Cape. Can't/won't speak about other areas but I'm glad I bought the generator, this is the big one and I am no longer worried at all about mixing of any significance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 People are really setting high expectations for this one. The problem is when people take that high end of the forecast and just run with it. Do I expect 30+ inches out of this? No way. Will I be dissapointed if less than a foot falls? Maybe. But all things considering with this season, I will be happy with whatever happens (as long as taint doesn't make it to my neck of the woods). Folks really need to keep it all in persepective. If the overnight runs reduce totals, I don't want to be in the way of the jumpers, but I would hope that people think rationally before deciding to take the dive off the Tobin, or grab the 3rd rail of the South Station bound train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If it goes east and GC winds up with 10", it'll still be a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ray jacks on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This NAM run breaks continuity all over the place with vorticity maxima ... I'd take this run with a grain of salt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Maybe it's onto something, but let's remember...it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Oh man did that later capture deliver... Hour 39 wow!!! These little fluctuations will continue, the jacks can't be locked >24hours out if prior blockbusters tell us anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The NAM is a carbon copy of the Central LI-Kevin-ORH-Ray Jacks... EVERYONE in SNE is getting POUNDED at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Man it's so insane to see that much snow being dumped on every run on every model over NE. Never thought I'd see 2 of the biggest storms ever in Boston in just 8 years. I moved here in 2003. I have done VERY well for snow in that time... which makes the approach of something like this hard to believe if only for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The SREF outputs were pretty fun to look at. One of the members for KASH had 27 inches in a 9 hour period. Is it always the same member that goes off the rails like that? Or is it a different outlier each time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6z-12z Tuesday the LP is basically moving directly north toward Cape Cod. Just remember - there's a good chance we will still chase this thing east a smidge each run. Let's see if the NAM is into the good drugs (I think it is somewhat because the 18z RGEM was east and I really think the RGEM is OFTEN THE ONE that signals the left hooks the most...sometimes far too much..with the Euro). If the RGEM slams back west this run then great, but if it runs like the 18z or east that's a gigantic red flag to me that the OP Euro is too far west. Again JMHO. This is the big one for Taunton, Jerry, Kevin, Steve, RI Peeps, Will somehow will get 3-4' under a death band, mini-scooter better get is sleep because he's about to be used as a human yardstick for photo ops...it's just great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah.. I think the NAM is actually on to something here. It looks much more traditional with it's qpf depiction, and to what many of us thought and agreed on for jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like it closing off now at hr 42@ H5, That is further NE then 18z, I think i may like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the nam has had no continuity whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I am actually surprised that BOX has my low total for this storm 21" and the high total noted as 33". It just seems like some very large numbers to throw out there. edit: earlier in the day the forecast totals were quite a bit lower. I get what you're selling. It's hard to predict where the heaviest banding will set up. West of the CT river and up into the Berks always seem to do well no matter the forecast. The snow hole will be somewhere too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I moved here in 2003. I have done VERY well for snow in that time... which makes the approach of something like this hard to believe if only for that reason. I'm from Brazil. We really only ever see something like this in movies. It's pretty surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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