TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Christ can someone drive to channel 5 tell Wankum to wank one, take a day off and have Harvey take over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Is Mike Wankum dumbing it down or is he dumb? Is he talking about the dry air? New GFS from 18z? What Mike... What @MetMikeWCVB 3m3 minutes ago The new and improved GFS want to drive warmer air father inland. Reducing totals near the coast. #wcvb He must have his reasons, and thoughts. ...Plus, don't believe everything you see on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm a long-time lurker/occasional poster, but having actually experienced '78 on the North Shore I might actually be able to contribute. We were out of school for five days. Snow was ridiculous, and it was on top of a pretty significant storm a couple weeks prior. Will attempt to compare, please excuse model run glitches due to, Um, senior moments... We lost 2 weeks plus in Foxboro. School roof caved in...best winter ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Couple questions I have. Obviously this system should have quite the deformation band associated with it, however, (and this isn't a main concern but more curious I guess) is it possible the deformation band has trouble staying in tact and exceptionally strong for a long period of time? The system which will stall for a time (or move very slowly) is going to become occluded and that will eventually cut off the warm/moist flow into the system and the 700mb low seems to become a bit more disorganized after a few hours in which models show a very tight closed off circulation...is it possible we see a very healthy looking deformation band just off to our west but sort of "fizzling" as it would move east? That is more of a risk from far ne MA points ne...certainly not for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What is up with channel 5? They are sensible...considering all options and contingencies... Let's not get into this "what are they thinking!" just because it goes against the meme of a done deal (not that you are, just sayin') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Probably one of the most amazing 500mb looks I've seen....just so beautiful. Not sure what the right term is on the 18z vs 0z NAM.."initially progressive" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Cf apparent on the nam running right on the south shore up about to punch into cape ann and just east of BOS. I'm gonna have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 They are sensible...considering all options and contingencies... Let's not get into this "what are they thinking!" just because it goes against the meme of a done deal (not that you are, just sayin') But that's not even what the 18z GFS results in..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Jay with Astro tides at 10 flooding will be reduced, currently surge values are 3 ft for the worst tide with 2 for the 2nd. Seas are expected 25-35 feet. Will be some modest flooding and severe erosion but not nearly as bad if tides were Astro high http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=&stn= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM will have some banging their heads on their desks right about now. It's definitely got that little jive early...so everything is captured a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You are right on. Harvey called it ahead of time and the morning of the storm all the local stations were calling for 1 to 2 feet the way I remember it. The problem was the snow didn't start as early as planned. Most people went off to work. It was a different time. There wasn't the option to work at home for so many. There was no internet but there was Shelby Scott!. I was in high school at the time. I lived in Dedham (jackpot zone Southwest of the city). I'll never forget the wind that morning even before the snow began. The destruction on the coastline was just incredible. I was on my way to work in Needham when Don Kent came on the radio just before noon concerned that if the storm didn't start soon, he thought the phase might not take place. In a little over an hour a wall of snow hit blowing sideways. Left work within 15 minutes of the start, and took 3 hours to get home to Randolph taking the back roads, normally a 30 minute drive. If I had gone 128, I probably would have been stranded up by Dedham, Canton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Cf apparent on the nam running right on the south shore up about to punch into cape ann and just east of BOS. I'm gonna have some fun. What hour are you on? Due to the alignment aloft etc...through 30h the QPF/dynamics are definitely east just as it's about to get captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 But that's not even what the 18z GFS results in.....look I am not one for this but what a tool,he has absolutely misrepresented every single model for the past 2 days, absolutely horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Man that nam cf is as perfect as it could be for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 thru 30 hr notable tick east vs. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 16/7 here high clouds starting to obscure the stars. Nice to finally have a system this year that has close to zero chance of tainting out here. Radar and water vapor images look like precip moves into New England a little ahead of schedule? It's going to be a cold system for sure. Forecast temps for GC: Tonight: 4 Monday: 19 M-nite: 13 Tues: 17 T-night 9 As far as timing---I think it's going to be a virga city for a bit to moisten the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nam is significantly SE. Wow. Could be some huge busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Guys...we're playing with settings. The only way to test everything is when the peak traffic occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What hour are you on? Due to the alignment aloft etc...through 30h the QPF/dynamics are definitely east just as it's about to get captured. 33 now. Cf briefly goes west of you but mainly stays right on the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM amplifies later. Probably going to be a noose worthy run for NYC but still great for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That is more of a risk from far ne MA points ne...certainly not for you. yeah I agree...probably not much of a concern down this way. for much of CT I went 18-24'' to start (but mentioned 24-36'' is possible) but before going ahead and going with those much higher totals 1) want to try and get an idea of where the heaviest banding traverses and 2) how does the banding act over time? Also before going much higher want to really get a handle on the exact track and positioning of the 700/850 lows and how they mature over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It shifted east but I doubt it is that far when ground truth is measured in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wish coastal flooding people would weigh in because I have no idea comparatively to some other storm related stuff. I'm within sight of Boston Harbor from the parents... but that kind of stuff doesn't affect us. We are sheltered. From what i have gathered there will be moderate flooding. I live in hull on the ocean and am going to Scituate for the night. (better chance of not flooding/keeping power) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Guys...we're playing with settings. The only way to test everything is when the peak traffic occurs. That last setting didn't agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Guys...we're playing with settings. The only way to test everything is when the peak traffic occurs.. This x10000000. I only know bits and pieces of what's going on and if they only knew what's been going on over the last 24-30hrs behind the scenes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's gonna be a fun walk on the beach Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM amplifies later. Probably going to be a noose worthy run for NYC but still great for SNE. Yup Tic or two NE of 18z, That was mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM amplifies later. Probably going to be a noose worthy run for NYC but still great for SNE. Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That last setting didn't agree 486 isn't hauling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nam is significantly SE. Wow. Could be some huge busts SNE is locked in. All this run might do is shift around the banding locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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