jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess I'll get this started. Right now I'll go 18-24" for most, except 24-30"+ from the Sagtikos Parkway east, 10-18" from I-287 west and from Trenton southwest, and then probably significantly less west of the Delaware River. Somewhere's going to have a hellacious cutoff and won't be happy. I'm keeping it under 2 feet for now for NYC given the uncertainty provided by the GGEM and GFS, which would fringe the city. The Euro is obviously more than this, and if the other models trend the Euro's way tonight, NYC could come very close to a record event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess I'll get this started. Right now I'll go 18-24" for most, except 24-30"+ from the Sagtikos Parkway east, 10-18" from I-287 west and from Trenton southwest, and then probably significantly less west of the Delaware River. Somewhere's going to have a hellacious cutoff and won't be happy. I'm keeping it under 2 feet for now for NYC given the uncertainty provided by the GGEM and GFS, which would fringe the city. The Euro is obviously more than this, and if the other models trend the Euro's way tonight, NYC could come very close to a record event. I am going with the Euro. 24-30" in the city. 36" out on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 24 to 30 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So, personally I do not think the Euro will CAVE, because I do not consider adjusting a bit to the east CAVING.....It was the model that basically brought this system from the ground up, and respect must be given. I do think that the GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM, etc will come west a bit at 00z and maybe even more at 12z, however I do think the euro will make quite a shift east.....If not at 00z, then at 12z tomorrow to reflect the changes.....Thinking this will still be a major winter storm and one of the biggest we've had in quite some time. For some areas, I do feel that it will be record breaking. The NWS's widespread 24-36 inches is quite simply overdone, in my humble opinion. 18-24" would have been a better bet (for accuracy's sake, not safety's sake - so I do understand why they put the amounts that they did) and still might be a bit too high, especially for western parts of the watch area This one, i'm going for : NW NJ far NW suburbs into parts of the LHV : 10-14" with amounts up to 18" NE NJ/southern areas including monmouth county/NYC/W-LI and some northern suburbs : 12-16" with amounts up to 20" C-LI & E-LI : 16-25" with amounts up to 32" This is only for our area, and for a jackpot total storm total including all locations.....I'd have say 37", somewhere in SNE of course Good luck everyone !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So, personally I do not think the Euro will CAVE, because I do not consider adjusting a bit to the east CAVING.....It was the model that basically brought this system from the ground up, and respect must be given. I do think that the GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM, etc will come west a bit at 00z and maybe even more at 12z, however I do think the euro will make quite a shift east.....If not at 00z, then at 12z tomorrow to reflect the changes.....Thinking this will still be a major winter storm and one of the biggest we've had in quite some time. For some areas, I do feel that it will be record breaking. The NWS's widespread 24-36 inches is quite simply overdone, in my humble opinion. 18-24" would have been a better bet (for accuracy's sake, not safety's sake - so I do understand why they put the amounts that they did) and still might be a bit too high, especially for western parts of the watch area This one, i'm going for : NW NJ far NW suburbs into parts of the LHV : 10-14" with amounts up to 18" NE NJ/southern areas including monmouth county/NYC/W-LI and some northern suburbs : 12-16" with amounts up to 20" C-LI & E-LI : 16-25" with amounts up to 32" This is only for our area, and for a jackpot total storm total including all locations.....I'd have say 37", somewhere in SNE of course Good luck everyone !!!!! Real solid there. I can't disagree with it. This kind of setup suggests NE NJ will likely do pretty well vis-a-vis the rest of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 TWC named the storm "Juno", so it's bound to bust now. Widespread 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nyc 16 Lga 18 JFK 14 Bdr 20 Ewr 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think it's in general 20" Storm for the NYC area The big deal will be where the deform band sets up and stalls. In this band will be all time record breaking tell the grand children stuff 36-48" In that band. 1888 type stuff 5" an hour wtf is happen stuff Ohhhh and epic drifts every where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I also think the ludicrous totals being put out by some of the models are over done, by perhaps 8-10". I think parts of middle Suffolk County could see 20-24". I think the winds will keep totals at that level but drifting may very well be a significant issue. Quite a bit of the power system in Suffolk was rebuilt or replaced after Sandy so coupled with the dry type snow that should fall I don't think we see the extreme outages we had with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I also think the ludicrous totals being put out by some of the models are over done, by perhaps 8-10". I think parts of middle Suffolk County could see 20-24". I think the winds will keep totals at that level but drifting may very well be a significant issue. Quite a bit of the power system in Suffolk was rebuilt or replaced after Sandy so coupled with the dry type snow that should fall I don't think we see the extreme outages we had with Sandy. You're right about the power. Its winter so no leaves on the trees that are left. Even if we do see gusts to 70 I think power will be fine . The drifts however will be epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hartford 22 inches Albany 18 inches White Plains 25 inches Morristown 19 inches Newark 26 inches Central Park 27 inches LaGuardia 27 inches JFK 30 inches Islip 31 inches Trenton 14 inches Philadelphia 11 inches Baltimore 9 inches Washington DC 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Will use the number I bet with my friend for nyc: 22.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Keep in mind that heavy snow bands up to 4" an hour if stationary can theoretically dump over a foot of snow in only a few hours. Jackpots up to 3 feet seem likely but probably east end of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nyc 16...zookeeper Lga 20 Jfk 16...can't measure Isp 24 Ewr 16 Me 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NYC- 15.8" thanks to the zookeeper...real total, 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottynic Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man, you guys are terrible...your estimates were nothing like the professi..........Wait never mind.. they all sucked.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.