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1/25-1/27 Clipper-Miller B Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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The precip seems to be making a northward progression in the last couple frames

 

The big picture looks interesting, and the hrrr says the 95 corridor goes in and out of decent returns today with some good stuff this evening.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html

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The precip seems to be making a northward progression in the last couple frames

No not really... If you look at the his res national mosaic loop it even backs off a little toward the sw/ potomac over the last couple of frames.    I am kind afraid it is just gonna spin out down to the south of us (I am in Catonsville)..Something will move through eventually, but it might be too late and its just a quick burst and then a dry slot.  It is a shame too cause we are cold enough.  I got a coating at some point past night. That stuff down in VA is all gonna be wasted on rain.  F$CK. 

 

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

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The flakes look like you'd see at lower temps.  Instead of large, fast-falling wet snow, it's actually the smaller, good dendrite type snow despite being 34 degrees.  Must be pretty cold upstairs.  Already sticking to grass and rooftops.

Another poster stated that we got the 850 temps for snow, i forgot who did exactly, so once we get the boundary layer temps low enough, over we go to snow. Here's hoping for a car top coating of SNOW this time instead of plain rain!

 

Still steady rain here in Dale City. The rain has been moderate at times. It's been raining pretty good for hours.

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No not really... If you look at the his res national mosaic loop it even backs off a little toward the sw/ potomac over the last couple of frames. I am kind afraid it is just gonna spin out down to the south of us (I am in Catonsville)..Something will move through eventually, but it might be too late and its just a quick burst and then a dry slot. It is a shame too cause we are cold enough. I got a coating at some point past night. That stuff down in VA is all gonna be wasted on rain. F$CK.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

If you look at Dover radar last few frames are encouraging.

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Good, moderate snow and those 25dBZ returns in Clarksburg. Temp is down to 28.9°F on gusty ENE winds of 10G22. 0.2" accumulation when I left the house at 6:30am. Here is a pic as I left the neighborhood. Heading to the tropical swamps of DC. I'll check in with a report of the rain/snow line as I make my way down 270.

post-109-0-12549400-1422272617_thumb.jpg

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10Z HRRR has the 1" line at DC, with anyone north of that and west of Baltimore getting 4+. The whole of Frederick county is at 6"+.

Yeah the HRRR has been quite bullish. If the NWS 3-6 idea pans out I am gonna bow down to them.  Cause if you read their discussions they have basically said FU to the guidance and gone with human forecasting.  So maybe.. we will see.  I am being quite negative... I am jaded.  

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10Z HRRR has the 1" line at DC, with anyone north of that and west of Baltimore getting 4+. The whole of Frederick county is at 6"+.

question... can you link me to precip totals for the HRRR.. I am on NCEP and cant seem to find it. I see the hourly total but not the Accumulated total.

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