T. August Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think NYC gets maybe 6-8" more, so storm total 10-14". Solid, but not top 5. BOS 24"+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Boom! For everyone NE, but us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think NYC gets maybe 6-8" more, so storm total 8-14". Solid, but not top 5. BOS 24"+... Hmmmm.....I'll be surprised if NYC only finishes with 8-14, especially considering this early band. It seems like even if they miss some of the deform they crack 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think NYC gets maybe 6-8" more, so storm total 10-14". Solid, but not top 5. BOS 24"+... I guess because I'm here but I don't think this is correct...that would mean the coastal itself would be a complete fail...I mean by the time it gets here we may have 8" or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I guess because I'm here but I don't think this is correct...that would mean the coastal itself would be a complete fail...I mean by the time it gets here we may have 8" or more Sticking to my 15-20" call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Radar starting to fill in - moderate band in PG County moving west towards DC. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sticking to my 15-20" call Seems reasonable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Except looking at a single event at a single point is not necessarily representative of the overall quality (or usability) of a particular model. Just saying. (Sidebar: this is not a defense of any particular model including the GFS which may prove to crap the bed on certain aspects of this event). True, but I think it's a good test for the updated GFS since this will be the biggest Nor'Easter for it to date. I'm also looking at it in terms of trends - GFS/GGEM/RGEM (and I think UKIE) have trended this east the last 24 hours or so. Euro/NAM for the most part have been west of the other models. This storm is just one tiny data blip in the grand scheme of data for the models but given the size of the storm, each model's performance will be referenced when talking about similar storms (i.e. we always remember how model so and so did for Sandy or Feb 14, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 so...PG will not be posting here for the final month of winter. Awful bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice snow shower just came thru Rockville. Our side street showing signs of giving up, finally. Only took 13 hours of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sticking to my 15-20" call Good luck up there. I guess I could be too low, but many models keep shifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Eastern Mass and the cape are about to get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Radar filling in overhead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Light snow/sleet Temp: 31.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That radar image is looking pretty good on the eastern shore. Anyone else notice or am I just grasping for straws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Very, very light flurries in Navy Yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sticking to my 15-20" call I think you may be low....with the prolific NAM/NAM Hi-res and the Euro barely shifting east I think 24+ for Queens and Western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 18Z RGEM went east http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015012618&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 True, but I think it's a good test for the updated GFS since this will be the biggest Nor'Easter for it to date. I'm also looking at it in terms of trends - GFS/GGEM/RGEM (and I think UKIE) have trended this east the last 24 hours or so. Euro/NAM for the most part have been west of the other models. This storm is just one tiny data blip in the grand scheme of data for the models but given the size of the storm, each model's performance will be referenced when talking about similar storms (i.e. we always remember how model so and so did for Sandy or Feb 14, etc). I'm not disagreeing. It's good to do proper post-mortem evaluation to understand a particular piece of guidance's strengths and weakness. However, it tends to get compartmentalized (to a particular lead time/aspect of event, single location) and there is way too much confirmation bias. Have the Euro/NAM really been west with the main storm or just in terms of their precipitation shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 And so it begins......the final desperate waiting period begins, even as the Northeast loads up on fresh snow. When we have above freezing temps, like last night, we always have plenty of moisture. And so it rained, for hours. When we are at 29 degrees, like now, we are begging for a dusting. That is the summary of the life of a Mid Atlantic snow enthusiast. The next clipper later this week.......expected to rain, again. I have so much mud in my yard that I am thinking of building temporary docks in order to be able to get around without getting muddy. This has been one of the rainiest "winters" in recent memory in tropical Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Classic GFS fail. They've already got 4-6 inches haha. Correct. NYC already has more than what GFS predicted with a lot more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice snow shower just came thru Rockville. Our side street showing signs of giving up, finally. Only took 13 hours of snow... Yep. Same here. Any good rates and my street and sidewalks r throwing in the towel 31 & hoping next band makes this far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 21z RAP has 0.14" for DCA from 5pm through the end of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Correct. NYC already has more than what GFS predicted with a lot more on the way. 18Z is from 1PM onward not that they haven't had snow that was missed, but it's NOT a total from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 31 with sleet, grrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Base reflectivity is showing nice bands forming to our east. We can only watch and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 18Z is from 1PM onward not that they haven't had snow that was missed, but it's NOT a total from this morning Yes. I'm sure some deformation bands will go over NYC and WLI for a few hours, but the trend east with the low certainly doesn't help the case for 2ft+. I think we should all be interested in this type of storm since modeling can be inspected better than your standard run of the mill 6-10 inch storm. Think about it, the NAM shows ~3.5" QPF over NYC, while the RGEM shows 0.7" (after 18z). That's a 500% difference in a storm modeled less than 24 hours out with models of generally the same spatial resolution! Notes should be taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Any Leesburg area reports for me? Sounded like enough to coat the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 21z RAP has 0.14" for DCA from 5pm through the end of the run... Shifted the band south from 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NW & SW DC should be seeing some good bands in the next ten minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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