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1/25-1/27 Clipper-Miller B Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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tonight the banding will be more intense but also more sporadic.  Just have to hope we get under a band or this may be it.  I would not be shocked though if some places pick up 3-4" quickly in some bands that set up along the trough axis tonight. 

If were lucky enough and getting into a band or two tonight we could get enhanced with some upslope because of the higher hills. It will depend on the direction the precip comes in. We did really well in part 2 of the Feb. storm last year and I think this aspect helped out. We got 7-8 here and Westminster only got 4 and Taneytown only1-2. The bands rotated in from the east slightly so when they got west of here they starting diminishing. Will see if something like that happens tonight.

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It's WRF(ARW)-based, though I have no clue how they have it configured or even how they initialize it.  I doubt that they run their own DA in-house.

WBAL TV runs it as their futurecast. They been doing it for years. Sometimes has drastic changes from run to run. Does a decent job at showing what areas may get snow showers with a cold front or t-storm in the spring and summer. Bigger events tends to push things to the south.

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oddly enough, in their 1pm update, NWS Wakefield still believes they can get 1-2" down in central VA with 1-3" in Northern Neck, 2-4" Lower Maryland....gives me a bit of hope, I guess. 

 

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

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Looked at SPC, Looks like a strong zone of low-level frontogenisis and moisture convergence. Winds are coming screaming off the ocean at 30-40kts at 925 mb, then just inland drops to 15-20kts. It's kind of creating a weak N/S oriented warm front/inverted trough just offshore as well.

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Looked at SPC, Looks like a strong zone of low-level frontogenisis and moisture convergence. Winds are coming screaming off the ocean at 30-40kts at 925 mb, then just inland drops to 15-20kts. It's kind of creating a weak N/S oriented warm front/inverted trough just offshore as well.

Let's hope it doesn't rob moisture from us for later.

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Storm totals:

 

Location storm total time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

District of Columbia

... District of Columbia...
   NW Washington T 938 am 1/26 public

Maryland

... Allegany County...
   Frostburg 3.0 900 am 1/26 trained spotter
   Eckhart Mines 3.0 1149 am 1/26 trained spotter
   Westernport 2.5 756 am 1/26 public

... Anne Arundel County...
   BWI Airport 0.6 100 PM 1/26 Airport

... Baltimore County...
   1 E Oella 1.0 1230 PM 1/26 trained spotter
   Essex 1.0 1011 am 1/26 public
   2 NW Long Green 1.0 1255 PM 1/26 trained spotter

... Baltimore City...
   1 NE Pimlico 0.4 940 am 1/26 cocorahs
   1 ENE Pimlico 0.4 1013 am 1/26 cocorahs

... Carroll County...
   3 NNW Gaither 1.0 1200 PM 1/26 trained spotter
   3 WSW Lineboro 0.8 1128 am 1/26 trained spotter
   4 NNE Uniontown 0.1 1000 am 1/26 trained spotter

... Harford County...
   Bel Air 0.1 929 am 1/26 911 call center

... Howard County...
   1 SSE Simpsonville 0.8 1145 am 1/26 trained spotter
   Highland 0.8 1245 PM 1/26 public
   2 N Columbia 0.5 1100 am 1/26 trained spotter
   2 N Columbia 0.4 910 am 1/26 cocorahs
   1 SW Ellicott City 0.2 945 am 1/26 trained spotter

... Montgomery County...
   1 ESE Norbeck 0.8 1255 PM 1/26 trained spotter
   1 ENE Gaithersburg 0.4 1015 am 1/26 trained spotter

... Washington County...
   Williamsport 1.0 1042 am 1/26 public
   3 NNW Pecktonville 1.0 900 am 1/26 NWS employee

Virginia

... Arlington County...
   1 NNE Baileys crossr 0.3 1140 am 1/26 trained spotter

... City of Harrisonburg...
   Harrisonburg 1.5 1114 am 1/26 broadcast media

... City of Winchester...
   Winchester 0.5 920 am 1/26 911 call center

... Fairfax County...
   1 NNE Herndon 0.1 945 am 1/26 NWS employee

... Frederick County...
   3 E Winchester 0.2 1112 am 1/26 trained spotter
   2 NNE Nineveh T 930 am 1/26 trained spotter

... Highland County...
   3 NW Hightown 4.5 920 am 1/26 public
   Mustoe 2.4 1000 am 1/26 trained spotter

... Loudoun County...
   Dulles international 0.1 100 PM 1/26 Airport

... Prince William County...
   3 NNW Woolsey 0.9 136 PM 1/26 trained spotter
   2 SW Woolsey T 1035 am 1/26 trained spotter

... Rappahannock County...
   Chester Gap 1.5 830 am 1/26 public

... Shenandoah County...
   Strasburg 1.0 848 am 1/26 public

West Virginia

... Berkeley County...
   2 NW Falling Waters 2.0 1215 PM 1/26 trained spotter
   2 E Martinsburg 1.5 1255 PM 1/26 NWS employee
   Inwood 1.5 1226 PM 1/26 public
   Martinsburg 1.0 916 am 1/26 911 call center

... Grant County...
   2 ESE Kline Gap 4.0 1200 PM 1/26 trained spotter

... Hampshire County...
   Romney 2.0 917 am 1/26 911 call center
   1 ESE Romney 2.0 1100 am 1/26 trained spotter

... Hardy County...
   Moorefield 1.5 920 am 1/26 911 call center

... Jefferson County...
   1 NNW Ranson 0.1 923 am 1/26 trained spotter

... Mineral County...
   Burlington 3.5 110 PM 1/26 trained spotter

... Pendleton County...
   6 WSW Cherry Grove 4.4 820 am 1/26 trained spotter
   Franklin 2.0 845 am 1/26 public
 

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