Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

1/25-1/27 Clipper-Miller B Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I am watching and refreshing this page - and while I realize the low has not yet bombed (well, it is only getting started), I just do not see the western precip shield making it very far into our CWA. 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

yeah it wasn't ever supposed to... except for maybe one run of the euro where Harford County east got nailed.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So weird to see a low developing basically over Hatteras and not only are we not going to get crushed, but we aren't really going to get anything and NYC might even miss out on a good bulk of the precip. Doesn't seem to make much sense to me.

Problem isn't the track, especially not the h5 track, its how long it takes for the whole storm to come together.  One of the issues seems to be competing vorts.  one is diving across VA right now, but another is back over Ohio and yet another up north of chicago.  The h7 low is displaced from where it needs to be to really crank the precip to the west of the coastal low right now due to that vort over Ohio.  That is why there is that band of precip up near Erie.  That is sort of robbing the dynamics needed for a nice precip shield over us as the low is at our latitude.  Eventually all the peices do come together and phase up and at that point the low bombs and a nice CCB precip shield gets going but too late for our area.  If there was less competing vorts perhaps this would have bombed down off NC and this could be a DC to Boston storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

about 3/4 of an inch. Getting real cold now. We just need some moisture.

tonight the banding will be more intense but also more sporadic.  Just have to hope we get under a band or this may be it.  I would not be shocked though if some places pick up 3-4" quickly in some bands that set up along the trough axis tonight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Perfect winters day in State College. 4" already with a few more to come. 19 with a breeze out of the NE. Miss those days. 

 

Anyway, breeze picking up here. Temp down to 30.9 imby. 

 

I spent the first 22 years of my life up there.  I'd move back in a heartbeat if the opportunity presented itself (which probably won't with a wife half way to a federal retirement)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Problem isn't the track, especially not the h5 track, its how long it takes for the whole storm to come together.  One of the issues seems to be competing vorts.  one is diving across VA right now, but another is back over Ohio and yet another up north of chicago.  The h7 low is displaced from where it needs to be to really crank the precip to the west of the coastal low right now due to that vort over Ohio.  That is why there is that band of precip up near Erie.  That is sort of robbing the dynamics needed for a nice precip shield over us as the low is at our latitude.  Eventually all the peices do come together and phase up and at that point the low bombs and a nice CCB precip shield gets going but too late for our area.  If there was less competing vorts perhaps this would have bombed down off NC and this could be a DC to Boston storm. 

 

Great explanation, thanks. Huge weather, particularly huge snowstorms, fan but certainly don't have the in-depth knowledge a lot of you guys have. Definitely learn a lot reading this board on a regular basis.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the RPM is based off of the WRF-ARW (or NMM?).  Either way, it should be treated with skepticism.

It's WRF(ARW)-based, though I have no clue how they have it configured or even how they initialize it.  I doubt that they run their own DA in-house.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...