osfan24 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So weird to see a low developing basically over Hatteras and not only are we not going to get crushed, but we aren't really going to get anything and NYC might even miss out on a good bulk of the precip. Doesn't seem to make much sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Light sleet/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I am watching and refreshing this page - and while I realize the low has not yet bombed (well, it is only getting started), I just do not see the western precip shield making it very far into our CWA. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif yeah it wasn't ever supposed to... except for maybe one run of the euro where Harford County east got nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Jury still out on this. Disjointed precip batches all over the place. Have stayed in light to nearly moderate snow, 1.1" total, 32* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Temp is falling. About to pass 31F. Light flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Stopped again. Light flurries, snow and sleet all day. Snow tv. Holding on to the coating. Not measured, seems kind of pointless really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Coming down much better in Rockville the last few minutes. 32.0 on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That clipper now going into Kentucky is racing South East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Perfect winters day in State College. 4" already with a few more to come. 19 with a breeze out of the NE. Miss those days. Anyway, breeze picking up here. Temp down to 30.9 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Perfect winters day in State College. 4" already with a few more to come. 19 with a breeze out of the NE. Miss those days. Anyway, breeze picking up here. Temp down to 30.9 imby. That band covering much of north/central PA looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So weird to see a low developing basically over Hatteras and not only are we not going to get crushed, but we aren't really going to get anything and NYC might even miss out on a good bulk of the precip. Doesn't seem to make much sense to me. Problem isn't the track, especially not the h5 track, its how long it takes for the whole storm to come together. One of the issues seems to be competing vorts. one is diving across VA right now, but another is back over Ohio and yet another up north of chicago. The h7 low is displaced from where it needs to be to really crank the precip to the west of the coastal low right now due to that vort over Ohio. That is why there is that band of precip up near Erie. That is sort of robbing the dynamics needed for a nice precip shield over us as the low is at our latitude. Eventually all the peices do come together and phase up and at that point the low bombs and a nice CCB precip shield gets going but too late for our area. If there was less competing vorts perhaps this would have bombed down off NC and this could be a DC to Boston storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 about 3/4 of an inch. Getting real cold now. We just need some moisture. tonight the banding will be more intense but also more sporadic. Just have to hope we get under a band or this may be it. I would not be shocked though if some places pick up 3-4" quickly in some bands that set up along the trough axis tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 32.3 / 29 Freezing rain in Severna Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Snow picking back up again in N Rockville. More SnowTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Could the clipper entering Kentucky effect this storm at all? It is going very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 about 3/4 of an inch. Getting real cold now. We just need some moisture. did you have anything measurable this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Could the clipper entering Kentucky effect this storm at all? It is going very fast. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Perfect winters day in State College. 4" already with a few more to come. 19 with a breeze out of the NE. Miss those days. Anyway, breeze picking up here. Temp down to 30.9 imby. I spent the first 22 years of my life up there. I'd move back in a heartbeat if the opportunity presented itself (which probably won't with a wife half way to a federal retirement) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Could the clipper entering Kentucky effect this storm at all? It is going very fast. It ends up phasing and being absorbed into the coastal that bombs near the Benchmark, helps new england...not much effect on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RPM NWS UPTON would be fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Problem isn't the track, especially not the h5 track, its how long it takes for the whole storm to come together. One of the issues seems to be competing vorts. one is diving across VA right now, but another is back over Ohio and yet another up north of chicago. The h7 low is displaced from where it needs to be to really crank the precip to the west of the coastal low right now due to that vort over Ohio. That is why there is that band of precip up near Erie. That is sort of robbing the dynamics needed for a nice precip shield over us as the low is at our latitude. Eventually all the peices do come together and phase up and at that point the low bombs and a nice CCB precip shield gets going but too late for our area. If there was less competing vorts perhaps this would have bombed down off NC and this could be a DC to Boston storm. Great explanation, thanks. Huge weather, particularly huge snowstorms, fan but certainly don't have the in-depth knowledge a lot of you guys have. Definitely learn a lot reading this board on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RPM I think the RPM is based off of the WRF-ARW (or NMM?). Either way, it should be treated with skepticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 RPM Sold! Too bad I think the RPM sucks generally. Is that the 18z RPM? Does the RPM have an 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Radar perking up a tad. 31.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RAP comes into DC Pretty late...HRRR band is over DC from 9-11....I'll probably drive to a good band if I have to...that is how desperate I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RAP comes into DC Pretty late...HRRR band is over DC from 9-11....I'll probably drive to a good band if I have to...that is how desperate I am I've got plenty of room up here in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Damn if the HRRR later tonight doesn't look like a spiral rainband into a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think the RPM is based off of the WRF-ARW (or NMM?). Either way, it should be treated with skepticism. It's WRF(ARW)-based, though I have no clue how they have it configured or even how they initialize it. I doubt that they run their own DA in-house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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