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1/25-1/27 Clipper-Miller B Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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I could be wrong, but it looks to me like the new low is forming a bit south and west of where it was expected to, and based on the water vapor loop, it seems to be almost ready to go negative and a lot of the precip seems to be heading almost due north. I'm not sure it will make a difference for us, but it seems to lock in the big snowfall for NY, NJ and NE and could make a huge difference for Philly.

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Its moderate snow and 34.... I thought we were suppose to be 39 with sun breaking through clouds right now?  :whistle:

Cold bleed is usually legit with these kind of storms.

 

Sticking nicely at home now. Keep the blob over DC.. screw the rest of you.

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As much as I don't want to believe...the signal for some sort of banding is really strong. And what is going on right now is kinda surprising. 

 

I don't get the talk about boxing day at all. We haven't been in the game for good snow for at least 48 hours and the most we thought we'd get when it looked good was like 3-6/4-8. Boxing day was an upper cut to the chin followed by a haymaker to the face. This event is at least getting fun again at the end. My bar is 1" clean inch and it's starting to maybe look easy?

 

every model has had it...some snowier than others...epicenter has varied but generally Loudoun county....That is our hope...the main consolidated complex from the coastal isn't getting its ass back in here other than some snowTV....we need that enhancement that is displaced from the main body of the coastal..

 

RAP is lol at this range but for illustrative purposes, it shows the general idea the best

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Frap%2F14%2Frap_namer_014_precip_p01.gif&model=rap&area=namer&storm=&cycle=14&param=precip_p01&fhr=014&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+14+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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I can't remember a storm where models were all over the place this close. This is usually nowcasting time but I feel like I am still looking at models because no one has a clue what is going to happen.

 

NEMO was pretty much a model sh-itshow up until the storm....the euro won of course....tough for the GFS when it sucks on the big storms...Sandy, NEMO, 2/12/14

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Snow has stopped here and instant meltage.  Perhaps we snuck in 1/2" on the grass.  Hard surfaces completely clear.  

 

Just for the record NWS comically upped our WSW to 6-8" of snow.  There has never been a worse week here in all my 44 years.  Since Tuesday 12-19 inches has been forecasted.  We rec'd a combined 1" of mangled slop that accumulated on nothing but grass.   Everyone could see these busts coming, save for the NWS.  SMH.

 

Just drive north 10 miles and its completely different. A little unlucky for you so far this year for sure. It seems every event has set up just north of Stephens City.

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Crystal City/DCA is pathetic.  Just white rain and a brown landscape.  At least it was sticking in Upper NW DC this morning.  DCA embarrassed us earlier too on the national shows as reporters stood with umbrellas in puddles while NYC-Boston talked about 2-3 feet.  

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I could be wrong, but it looks to me like the new low is forming a bit south and west of where it was expected to, and based on the water vapor loop, it seems to be almost ready to go negative and a lot of the precip seems to be heading almost due north. I'm not sure it will make a difference for us, but it seems to lock in the big snowfall for NY, NJ and NE and could make a huge difference for Philly.

 

All day Sunday, it appeared to me that the Midwest swirl was digging further south than I thought it would.

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Crystal City/DCA is pathetic.  Just white rain and a brown landscape.  At least it was sticking in Upper NW DC this morning.  DCA embarrassed us earlier too on the national shows as reporters stood with umbrellas in puddles while NYC-Boston talked about 2-3 feet.  

lol dca is 36 with -rasn. my grass in cleveland park is almost totally covered with a light coating.

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