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1/25-1/27 Clipper-Miller B Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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I hope the HRRR is right too.  If all we get is this dusting with 3-5" predicted, and after getting rain from the last one when 3-5" was predicted just a day before, it will be a real kick in the gut.  I'd be happy with just 2" but I really don't see it happening.  Barely snowing now with that lumpy-looking sky and collapsing radar.

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Indeed we do not - which is why I had to go read up on them. Even where they do generally occur apparently hard as hell to forecast correctly.

It is interesting to watch. Might as well hope for the best.

Dusting here at home.

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I am apparently the only one on here that won't look at RAP, HRRRRR, PIDIHPFHD, or whatever other short term models there are as an event unfolds. I guess I reach a point where it is enough for me to be surprised one way or the other.

 

Helps that none of the short-term models seem to agree with what and where something might fall...

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Some can't handle the truth. At least we have something interesting to watch. A random decent band is certainly possible

It is compelling most models have shown risk to some degree. 'Odds higher than no chance'
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Latest RAP bullseyes Jebman with over 6 inches.  Looks close to last run, just a little south.  Maybe it's believable??

 

 

NAM looks good to me through 00z

 

 

Looks like newest RAP is

not as good for DC, okay/better for Baltimore.

 

 

RAP 13z not as promising.

 

 

12z NAM supports 2-4 per snow map

:axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:  :axe:

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I'm not sure it's a norlun but more associated with vorticity and neg tilt from a vigorous shortwave. Real estate is small and uncertainty is high. Could easily be a no nevermind

That could be true too. It's something sketchy.
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