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OBS: Snow, Monday-Tuesday 1/26-27/2015


famartin

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38f light rain dew point 32 ground misted and wet as well as the cars

 

 

 

 

.... very very concerned about the sharp cut off hope I didn't jinx this last night when I posted at 3:16 AM this morning just worried really want 12" Sorry not a downer but rather a realist looking at the current pattern and the realization we are tangling with a Miller B storm here...my thoughts truly think we know much much better by 12z tomorrow that cut off has very concerned in my opinion with the NAO+ no true blocking think the 15-25" stuff is around NYC and that sharp cut off is around PHL....it's a Miller B typically you need that blocking to slow this down. what in the NAO has changed from our storm that moved through fast on Friday night? The progressive flow of this pattern has me concerned...we will now truly put my -NAO theory in this pattern to the test...notice I said this pattern and not historically. From coastal DC 2" Baltimore 2-4" Delco 5-7" PHL 5-8" Bensalem 6-12" TTN 8-12" NYC 15"+ Boston 24" as I see it now fear the models back offe super concerned in this pattern.

 

Hoping the low from Friday Night into Saturday can block quicker or more substantially despite hte +NAO

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38f light rain dew point 32 ground misted and wet as well as the cars

 

 

 

 

.... very very concerned about the sharp cut off hope I didn't jinx this last night when I posted at 3:16 AM this morning just worried really want 12" Sorry not a downer but rather a realist looking at the current pattern and the realization we are tangling with a Miller B storm here...my thoughts truly think we know much much better by 12z tomorrow that cut off has very concerned in my opinion with the NAO+ no true blocking think the 15-25" stuff is around NYC and that sharp cut off is around PHL....it's a Miller B typically you need that blocking to slow this down. what in the NAO has changed from our storm that moved through fast on Friday night? The progressive flow of this pattern has me concerned...we will now truly put my -NAO theory in this pattern to the test...notice I said this pattern and not historically. From coastal DC 2" Baltimore 2-4" Delco 5-7" PHL 5-8" Bensalem 6-12" TTN 8-12" NYC 15"+ Boston 24" as I see it now fear the models back offe super concerned in this pattern.

 

Hoping the low from Friday Night into Saturday can block quicker or more substantially despite hte +NAO

not so sure i agree with you that the pattern we're in is the culprit here.  i mean NYC is on schedule to get one of the worst storms in their history with the same patttern...

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not so sure i agree with you that the pattern we're in is the culprit here.  i mean NYC is on schedule to get one of the worst storms in their history with the same patttern...

let me clarify then... in terms of seeing totals of 12" or more from a Miller "B" especially with a +NAO we seem to get ripped off at this latitude.  That 120 miles northeast makes all the difference many times NYC to Boston.

 

Just trying to have conversation and see what other people think.... I know Glen yesterday was concerned about the +NAO and +AO... I will certainly take his thoughts over my own..

 

hey just nervous guess this should go in the Banter thread now LOL

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let me clarify then... in terms of seeing totals of 12" or more from a Miller "B" especially with a +NAO we seem to get ripped off at this latitude.  That 120 miles northeast makes all the difference many times NYC to Boston.

 

Just trying to have conversation and see what other people think.... I know Glen yesterday was concerned about the +NAO and +AO... I will certainly take his thoughts over my own..

 

hey just nervous guess this should go in the Banter thread now LOL

i hope you didnt think my response was rude, i didn't intend it that way.  and it is true that new england in particular can have big storms even with a positive NAO.  to get back on point, i think the AO is heading down over the next few days, i am wondering if a Met can verify that.

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Some light sprinkles here too, temperature 37F. Feels like we just did this the other night!

Once the coastal low begins developing we'll know more also, obviously. Hoping it can start out a little further south and west of where it's currently progged to. The spread in the models at that point of the evolution seems to allow for the possibility.

Meanwhile need to get some sleep!

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