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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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SRRTA22

SRRTA22

Posted
Posted

Are people really jumping ship because of the crappy gfs? Wtf is wrong with you people. Stop the model hugging. We are in a fantastic spot for the deform band and there will be 2+ amounts in that band. In fact I bet somewhere in out area beats boston

 

I'm definitely not jumping ship. I always felt like the 30"+ amounts would be confined to Long Island and SNE , which I'm perfectly fine with.

 

I think the 12z Euro will shift a tiny bit east with the JP zone, but that's still 12" or more for NYC proper

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

if the ao/nao was at near record low levels like in 1978 I'd be more bullish on amounts.. 8-12" is a bullish call for me...Tomorrow we could be looking at more or less amounts...what happens if the euro comes in less than expected?...I've seen to many miller B's under preform...I'll worry about amounts tomorrow...anything less than a foot will be a disappointment the way this storm's been hyped...

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

I know it's a different evolution, etc., but this is essentially what happened on 3/5/2001. Everyone went nuts, talking close to 30" totals and then everything came together too late. Parts of NE got smashed.

I think that one is brought up so much that people start feeling silly bringing it up again, as it tends to be the "go to" failure theme song....but, this really is not too much different in regards to us being on the southern edge....WISH IT AWAY, wish it away....
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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

if the ao/nao was at near record low levels like in 1978 I'd be more bullish on amounts.. 8-12" is a bullish call for me...Tomorrow we could be looking at more or less amounts...what happens if the euro comes in less than expected?...I've seen to many miller B's under preform...I'll worry about amounts tomorrow...anything less than a foot will be a disappointment the way this storm's been hyped...

with all do respect at this point that stuff is just noise...srry its game on now

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dmb8021

dmb8021

Posted
Posted

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1120 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC

CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST AND SLIGHT PROGRESSION ISSUES

WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH PLAY HAVOC WITH THE

QPF/PRECIPITATION/WINTER WEATHER FORECAST. IN REVIEWING THE 00Z

ECMWF, 12Z NAM, AND 12Z GFS, ALL THREE HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BE

CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES CONTAMINATING THEIR SOLUTIONS.

THE ECMWF'S SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL CYCLONE MORE THAN THE OTHER

GUIDANCE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM'S BULL'S EYES OVER THE

GULF STREAM OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST APPEAR TO CAUSE AN EASTWARD

SHIFT IN ITS 12Z SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE GFS'S

BULL'S EYE/QPF BOMB DRAGS ITS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CIRCULATION

ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ON ITS 12Z RUN, MORE TO THE WEST

OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE DESPITE ITS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE

IS A CHANCE OF SOME WOBBLING OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM DUE TO AN

INVADING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE ON TUESDAY, WHICH

WOULD LEAD TO A LESS EVEN FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE 00Z GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS MIRRORS THE ENVELOPE OF

DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AMONGST THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND

UKMET. THERE IS NO OVERARCHING TREND SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY

TOWARDS A QUICKER OR SLOWER SOLUTION, THOUGH THE

NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD -- IN THE DIRECTION OF

THE 12Z GFS. THE OCCASIONALLY SLOW/PLODDING 09Z SREF MEAN LIES IN

THE MIDDLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD, QUICKER THAN THE 12Z

NAM/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. SINCE NO SOLUTION CAN BE COMPLETELY

DISCOUNTED WHEN USING THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD, 700 HPA HEIGHT

FIELD, AND 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD, FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z

ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS/12Z NAM, WHICH ROUGHLY

RESEMBLES THE 09Z SREF MEAN AT 500 HPA AND THE SURFACE. FOR QPF

AND WINTER WEATHER CHOICES, SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER

DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

With 2m temperatures falling into the low 20's as the storm winds up...you should have some very good ratios with this event...at least 12:1...probably 15:1 later in the event...so even 1.5" L.E. would yield about 20 inches of snow.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

With 2m temperatures falling into the low 20's as the storm winds up...you should have some very good ratios with this event...at least 12:1...probably 15:1 later in the event...so even 1.5" L.E. would yield around about 20 inches of snow.

You are in a perfect spot for this storm

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SleetStormNJ

SleetStormNJ

Posted
Posted

People need to avoid reading too much into and buying snowfall maps verbatim. I think those of us out west here do need to be watchful of the evolution and need to close off. But. Even folks out on LI and even up into CT and Mass need to watch the snowmap hysteria. There will be some major subsidence screw-zones there even where the snowmaps smooth out the snowfall totals. Somebody will get 2-3 feet, but there will be some interspersed areas that get maybe half of that especially when the low stalls. Ratios though continue to look excellent on a lot of the models. That's highly encouraging even for those of us more on the western area currently.

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted

I'm never OK with Boston getting crushed and NYC much less. I don't think this will be one of those outcomes.

 

I used to ask this question now and then on this type of forum.  What would you rather have, 8 inches where you are the jackpot, or would you rather get a foot even though someone else gets 16?  The responses were surprisingly honest - half would actually rather be the jackpot of a smaller storm.  20 years ago I would have said the same thing.  Now i think I'd rather get the foot.  I think.

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted

I'm never OK with Boston getting crushed and NYC much less. I don't think this will be one of those outcomes.

 

I used to ask this question now and then on this type of forum.  What would you rather have, 8 inches where you are the jackpot, or would you rather get a foot even though someone else gets 16?  The responses were surprisingly honest - half would actually rather be the jackpot of a smaller storm.  20 years ago I would have said the same thing.  Now i think I'd rather get the foot.  I think.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

People need to avoid reading too much into and buying snowfall maps verbatim. I think those of us out west here do need to be watchful of the evolution and need to close off. But. Even folks even out on LI and even up into CT and Mass need to watch the snowmap hysteria. There will be some major subsidence screw-zones there even where the snowmaps smooth out the snowfall totals. Somebody will get 2-3 feet, but there will be some interspersed areas that get maybe half of that especially when the low stalls. Ratios though continue to look excellent on a lot of the models. That's highly encouraging even for those of us more on the western area currently.

Ratios should be very good. Soundings show good lift in the dendrite growth zone-meaning high ratio snowflakes should be common. High wind can cut down on ratios somewhat, but it should be a solid 12-15:1. 

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