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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

GGEM looks east to me so far.....if we lose our heavy hitters and have the NAM on our side, can we trust it? Lol....Pam is correct though as well as unc....for NNJ/NYC 8-12" is a good call now that id agree with (unc's call)

EDIT : yep it's much further east....NYC a might even be only like 8-10" this run just taking a guess so far

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LongIslandJoe

LongIslandJoe

Posted
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No listen I don't hide jealousy when it comes to weather. If Boston gets that 2-3 feet and we get 12" I would be devastated. Yes 12" is better than nothing. But damn it I am just east of Nassau County in Suffolk. If less than 18" I will be crying in my beer. It HAS to be this storm. We don't get that many opportunities like this!

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
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Just please let Suffolk, specifically (ISP) get hammered. We've gotten the short end of the stick through every storm so far. Let this be our time.

 

I can't recall any actual storms yet this winter...

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NYI91Tavares

NYI91Tavares

Posted
Posted

Not sure if this is the right thread, but I'm a complete n00b who has some questions that I'm sure the more informed could answer for me.

1. What type of storm is this....Miller A, B ect?

2. What factors are leading to such a potentially historic storm? What is taking a rudimentary clipper and turning it into a monster?

Thanks in advance :-)

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
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No listen I don't hide jealousy when it comes to weather. If Boston gets that 2-3 feet and we get 12" I would be devastated. Yes 12" is better than nothing. But damn it I am just east of Nassau County in Suffolk. If less than 18" I will be crying in my beer. It HAS to be this storm. We don't get that many opportunities like this!

I don't think anyone would be crying in their beer if the city gets 15 or 16 inches

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yhbrooklyn

yhbrooklyn

Posted
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Uggh, the GGEM ticking east may be a concern for the city and west. Hopefully the Euro stays firm. NYC really needs for this to close off quickly south of the area. A slower evolution means a much better storm for Boston and NYC getting fringed.

I know it's a different evolution, etc., but this is essentially what happened on 3/5/2001. Everyone went nuts, talking close to 30" totals and then everything came together too late. Parts of NE got smashed.

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
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I'd look west to see how models are performing so far. Storm looks very potentWould a more potent system drive the storm a bit more east?

Quite the opposite. A strong storm that goes negative tilt would tick more west in theory. The problem with the GFS is it didn't close off soon enough.

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SleetStormNJ

SleetStormNJ

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Uggh, the GGEM ticking east may be a concern for the city and west. Hopefully the Euro stays firm. NYC really needs for this to close off quickly south of the area. A slower evolution means a much better storm for Boston and NYC getting fringed.

 

I think people are falling victim to letting each run waver them.  We do need a quicker evolution, but I'm not surprised the GGEM would go a bit east since it runs extended off the RGEM.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
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The GFS precip printouts...I would not be too concerned with...the Canadien models in this range...that's another story. 

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
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I think people are falling victim to letting each run waver them. We do need a quicker evolution, but I'm not surprised the GGEM would go a bit east since it runs extended off the RGEM.

I agree with that some, however, the modeling (including GFS/RGEM/GGEM and obviously the Euro) is what led us all (including the pros) to believe this could be a 2ft event for many of us.....the fact that all of those models (except the Euro : fingers crossed) are slowly dropping off and shifting east could be considered waffling, if they trend back west.....but anything that it shows closer and closer to the event has the better chance of being closer to the outcome...

The GGEM is a HUGE hit for our central and eastern LI folks though!! Awesome...2ft+

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