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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

The band looks to be weakening some now and a more general heavy snow area looks to be forming from the city on east, maybe clipping NE NJ. That may be about where the west push ends and the pivoting begins.

 

Switch to the Mt Holly radar, I posted this in the other obs thread, the Mt Holly radar works better for echo intensities once you're in western Queens and Brookyln.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Stop, 4-5"/hr don't even happen in the worst of LES storms and you throw those numbers around like their common in storms like this. Their not common ever, even in Bombogenesis systems like this, as its almost impossible to achieve, as all the elements for that type intensity have to come together just right, which usually doesn't happen! The way bands appear don't always translate to sensible weather.

Well first off, lake effect snowstorms can easily dump 4 inches per hour, if not 5 or 6 (as they did with the past lake event.....I believe there were even good reports of higher than that).....and I do agree with you, they are not common. However, when you have a strengthening, growing dynamic band coming in off of the ocean.....it's possible. The band did seem to weaken some so it might not be now, but I do feel the potential was there and is there. NWS forecast is (even though it'll probably bust in general) is for 2-4" per hour rates, just as it is for the Boston area.....as in discussions for them.....rates of at least 4-5"/hour possible.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Reading the news online and watching streaming news it seems to them, for NYC the storm is a bust, so they all don't give a FU" anymore, Yet out Long Island home to millions and millions of people still looking at massive snow fall totals, but the news.. not caring as much.

That's because Long Island was always supposed to get a huge hit and they're getting it, same with New England. NYC was supposed to as well but they're right on the edge and may/may not be in the higher totals. 

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted

Stop, 4-5"/hr don't even happen in the worst of LES storms and you throw those numbers around like their common in storms like this.  Their not common ever, even in Bombogenesis systems like this, as its almost impossible to achieve, as all the elements for that type intensity have to come together just right, which usually doesn't happen!  The way bands appear don't always translate to sensible weather.  

 

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND

FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN

EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC

FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL

PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY

APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF

STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Well according to DT everyone on Americanwx are idiots. Smh. Guy has a serious attitude problem. Anyways, if that band can meet you NYC could be good for a decent storm even if not the 20-30" Wishing the best of luck from Ohio. Hope ya get at least a foot.

But he posts here frequently....what is he saying? Is he not aware the moon s peeking thru in western areas?

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

Not sure if it was mentioned, the 00z GGEM was another useless model, barely clips the twin forks with moderate stuff.

lol and to think ppl are trashing the euro...i hope they know that the euro is going to be the closet to verifying rofl...ggem, rgem, gfs, ukmet all utterly embarrased themselves 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

lol and to think ppl are trashing the euro...i hope they know that the euro is going to be the closet to verifying rofl...ggem, rgem, gfs, ukmet all utterly embarrased themselves 

 

lol and to think ppl are trashing the euro...i hope they know that the euro is going to be the closet to verifying rofl...ggem, rgem, gfs, ukmet all utterly embarrased themselves 

 

The UKMET will be the next closest probably, it may be different for different zones but for NYC its gonna be the Euro most likely.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

He said he busted hard in Philly. Still has 6-12" for much of nj..12-18 for ocean to somerset on north

 

 

He said he busted hard in Philly. Still has 6-12" for much of nj..12-18 for ocean to somerset on north

 

He said he busted hard in Philly. Still has 6-12" for much of nj..12-18 for ocean to somerset on north

Hats off to admitting his bust, Steve D went to bed without changing a thing.

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