Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[WEATHER53]

Miller Bs generally are good to you guys.

A low coming over Atlanta, thru central SC, eastern NC and east of Norfolk is what does us good and very often you also.

Miller Bs disappoint around DC 80% of the time.  I am actually happy with my 2.3"

[Mophstymeo]

Joe Cioffi's take:

Here is the issue with regards to this storm. The upper air storms has closed off at every level except at 500MB (18000FT). The european model has closed off this circulation faster than any other model If that happens then big snows will occur everywhere from Southern New Jersey northward. However the loop here shows that it has not happened yet. Look at the coastline near New York City. Just south of us there is the the upper storm trying to form. If it closes off in the next few hours then heavy snows will back westward into Western New Jersey. If it takes longer than heavy snows will back westward to about New York City.

[ILoveWinter]

You don't need detail when you have highly regarded pros saying the same thing. If several doctors say you don't have appendicitis, do you ask them to prove every little detail? Or do you assume that educated professionals know what they are talking about?

That isnt the same thing as that has more certainty/clarity.  Many areas are still in the game so throwing in the towel that early makes no sense at this juncture.  

[stockmanjr]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

NJZ006-103-104-106-NYZ067>075-176-178-270645-
BRONX-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER-ORANGE-PUTNAM-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-ROCKLAND-SOUTHERN
QUEENS-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-WESTERN BERGEN-
1141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL ENTER NEW YORK CITY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

AT 1135 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DANBURY
CONNECTICUT TO PORT CHESTER NEW YORK TO WOODMERE NEW YORK...AND
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH...AND VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED...
PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

$

GOODMAN

[donsutherland1]

That heavier band is moving into the Larchmont area (just south of Port Chester). Snow intensity has picked up and it is not moderate.

[nycsnow]

The GFS whipped the Euros ass with this one and it deserves its props! Clearly NYC and points N&W have pretty much seen what their going to see unless this banding retrograding into NYC form the East changes things so we wait but I think its a run of the mill system for NYC proper and points S&W. NYC is too damn close to throw in the towel just yet!!!

Nyc east is fine

[jm1220]

At this rate it could be a reverse 2/6/10 between NYC (eastern areas anyway) and PHL.

[jimbo073]

The band is starting to push into JFK. Radar looks great.

Will it make it to Hoboken, just across from Manhattan

[SnowGoose69]

Its interesting how everyone has noticed sharp wind increase as they enter the band, definite convergence into it.

[kevbo81]

heavy snow here

[Mophstymeo]

heavy snow here

The flakes are also bigger and fuller.

[BL03]

This band really is the wildcard here.... depending how far west it gets will mean a lot.   NAM had intense 700mb panels right near the NJ shore into NYC for a couple runs... may be this is it.   fingers crossed. 

[weatherpruf]

That isnt the same thing as that has more certainty/clarity.  Many areas are still in the game so throwing in the towel that early makes no sense at this juncture.  

Well I agree this is a big area, but there are many sections in this subforum where they can call it a day. Some are seeing the moon through the clouds. I like the discussion Joe Cioffi gave above. Thre is still some time for marginal areas in Union and Middlesex counties but the window is closing. And, it's not the end of the world in any case.

[donsutherland1]

The snow is now heavy in Larchmont from the band referenced by the NWS.

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM, GFS and UKMET have now all lost, now we have to see who wins between the Euro and the NAM, my guess is the Euro, I cannot see this pushing much into NJ.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Check out that band on the kdix radar about to hit the jersey shore. It's going to make it there. I wouldn't be surprised if a place like Toms River sees 4-5" in an hour or so

Stop, 4-5"/hr don't even happen in the worst of LES storms and you throw those numbers around like their common in storms like this.  Their not common ever, even in Bombogenesis systems like this, as its almost impossible to achieve, as all the elements for that type intensity have to come together just right, which usually doesn't happen!  The way bands appear don't always translate to sensible weather.  

[ILoveWinter]

Well I agree this is a big area, but there are many sections in this subforum where they can call it a day. Some are seeing the moon through the clouds. I like the discussion Joe Cioffi gave above. Thre is still some time for marginal areas in Union and Middlesex counties but the window is closing. And, it's not the end of the world in any case.

Yea for some western areas its dicey, I can agree with that.  It may not be the end of the world, but civilization may cease to exist if that band stalls out before NYC west.

[jm1220]

The RGEM, GFS and UKMET have now all lost, now we have to see who wins between the Euro and the NAM, my guess is the Euro, I cannot see this pushing much into NJ.

The band looks to be weakening some now and a more general heavy snow area looks to be forming from the city on east, maybe clipping NE NJ. That may be about where the west push ends and the pivoting begins.

[MJO812]

New HRRR has it snowing in the area well into the morning hours

[dilly84]

Well according to DT everyone on Americanwx are idiots. Smh. Guy has a serious attitude problem. Anyways, if that band can meet you NYC could be good for a decent storm even if not the 20-30" Wishing the best of luck from Ohio. Hope ya get at least a foot.

[KPITSnow]

The RGEM, GFS and UKMET have now all lost, now we have to see who wins between the Euro and the NAM, my guess is the Euro, I cannot see this pushing much into NJ.

 

I have to ask, as an outside observer, how has the GFS lost?

[FreeRain]

heavy snow here

Visibility around a quarter mile here in NE Nassau.

[Minnesota Meso]

Need some guidance here regarding the snow field showing in up southern NJ and seems to be moving se  #1 is that a sign of rapid intensification? or is it just that the surface low may be somewhat west of most of the modeling??  Sorry to barge in as I'm from MN, just a question.

[marsplex]

Reading the news online and watching streaming news it seems to them, for NYC the storm is a bust, so they all don't give a FU" anymore, Yet out Long Island home to millions and millions of people still looking at massive snow fall totals, but the news.. not caring as much.

[Doorman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND

MASSACHUSETTS

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 270432Z - 270900Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG

ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD

OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC

HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF

NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR

PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF

NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE

GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50

KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND

FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN

EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC

FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL

PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY

APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF

STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF

PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND

NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO

THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

 

map for the sake of clarity

[MJO812]

Really weird to see no cars at all in Times Square

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo3

[winterwx21]

The band looks to be weakening some now and a more general heavy snow area looks to be forming from the city on east, maybe clipping NE NJ. That may be about where the west push ends and the pivoting begins.

Would be amazing if areas in eastern Jersey under blizzard warnings end up getting only a few inches. That would be a monster bust. I'm pretty nervous here.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

New HRRR has it snowing in the area well into the morning hours

Only into the morning hours?

[RUMG11]

Band still pushing west...

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1KPHLa_h.gif

[Nygmen]

Its interesting how everyone has noticed sharp wind increase as they enter the band, definite convergence into it.

THANK YOU...ive been trying to say this the only thing the gfs did better at was cutoff points...it is going to fail miserably with snowfall totals from extreme eastern nj out onto LI