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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

Hopefully it closes off at h5 soon & the dynamics can overcome. But yeah, that is harsh looking in from only 25 miles outside of NYC...

As it looks now being in MMU you probably still have a fighting chance to get into the western edge. Further west it's not looking to good. Again, I still think there is a little time left but not much for those in the western half of NJ. Eastern 1/3 of NJ into NYC look ok.

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
Posted

Amazing how this place has become a place of wishcasters. Why are people who are using objective evidence that this may not turn out to dump the 20"-30" forecasts labeled "downers"? It is looking more and more like they are going to be right. Not to say that NYC and surrounding won't get a good foot or so. But jeesh ...

Not everyone uses objective evidence, they are frustrated and indicate that they have basically given up for no good reason.  If someone describes in detail why he thinks it will bust then he wouldnt be a downer.

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NJCowboy

NJCowboy

Posted
Posted

stll saying 12-18 here,  im ready to throw the towel in. i will wait ANOTHER HR

I swear...people seem to want a long duration storm ahead of time, then when it starts they want the whole thing to play out in the first few hours and throw in the towel if they don't get instant gratification.

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

some people are acting ridiculous as long as the bands keep rotating a little more wen this baby closes off nyc could very well be getting hammered with one of those bands...this still look like it can verify closer to the euro for nyc...chill the **** out

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NYStorm

NYStorm

Posted
Posted

Not everyone uses objective evidence, they are frustrated and indicate that they have basically given up for no good reason.  If someone describes in have stated the short terms

Several have stated output from the short-term models and the changes in the NAM ... along with the lack of the westwards progress of the mesoscale bands. All together, this would at least be cause for concern at this point, but not calling it a "bust".

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

NYC, here it comes. Huge band entering Queens now and continuing west. Expanding on the east side as well in Nassau. My brother just texted me and said it's a complete whiteout at home.

 

Gun to my head, I'll say Central Park finishes with 15-16" counting the snow from this AM, and JFK about 20". Nassau County 20-24", east of the Sagtikos 24"+. EWR 13", MMU 8", Trenton 7", Philly 4". 

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
Posted

Several have stated output from the short-term models and the changes in the NAM ... along with the lack of the westwards progress of the mesoscale bands. All together, this would at least be cause for concern at this point, but not calling it a "bust".

I said not everyone uses objective evidence.  

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Not everyone uses objective evidence, they are frustrated and indicate that they have basically given up for no good reason.  If someone describes in detail why he thinks it will bust then he wouldnt be a downer.

 

Not everyone uses objective evidence, they are frustrated and indicate that they have basically given up for no good reason.  If someone describes in detail why he thinks it will bust then he wouldnt be a downer.

You don't need detail when you have highly regarded pros saying the same thing. If several doctors say you don't have appendicitis, do you ask them to prove every little detail? Or do you assume that educated professionals know what they are talking about?

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WeatherFox

WeatherFox

Posted
Posted

NYC, here it comes. Huge band entering Queens now and continuing west. Expanding on the east side as well in Nassau. My brother just texted me and said it's a complete whiteout at home.

 

Gun to my head, I'll say Central Park finishes with 15-16" counting the snow from this AM, and JFK about 20". Nassau County 20-24", east of the Sagtikos 24"+. EWR 13", MMU 8", Trenton 7", Philly 4". 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND

MASSACHUSETTS

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 270432Z - 270900Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG

ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD

OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC

HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF

NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR

PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF

NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE

GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50

KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND

FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN

EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC

FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL

PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY

APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF

STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF

PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND

NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO

THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted

Can any mets chime in how much longer this window is open for it to move west? It really looks like it's trying to and cold air is diminishing its run. But some extremely heavy bands look like they are about to make their way onto the jersey shore. Does this thing have the potential time to keep loopdelopping back around?

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted

March 2001 type busts incoming if the 00z GFS even comes close to verifying. 

The GFS whipped the Euros ass with this one and it deserves its props!  Clearly NYC and points N&W have pretty much seen what their going to see unless this banding retrograding into NYC form the East changes things so we wait but I think its a run of the mill system for NYC proper and points S&W.  NYC is too damn close to throw in the towel just yet!!!

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