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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Upton is now calling for 18-24 for NYC

18" is doable in NYC if the snow pivots west for another couple of hours and the deform banding sits overhead for some time. Remember, there's already 5" on the ground in Manhattan. Suffolk County I think still sees easily 24", maybe Nassau too if the bands cooperate.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Cutting totals for the west isn't throwing in the towel...there is still a very impressive storm going on. Just because its not going perfect in your backyard, doesn't mean any towels need to be thrown.

See. I don't get that attitude. if it's not really in my backyard, it really isn't my problem. The twin forks are as far from me as DC. Why would I be worried about a storm dropping 3 feet there if I am getting 5 inches? And I don't think they are cutting totals by just a few inches. Can anyone tell me if there is any good reason for folks in most of NJ, other than some wind, to be overly excited by this storm? I'm all ears.

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NYI91Tavares

NYI91Tavares

Posted
Posted

See. I don't get that attitude. if it's not really in my backyard, it really isn't my problem. The twin forks are as far from me as DC. Why would I be worried about a storm dropping 3 feet there if I am getting 5 inches? And I don't think they are cutting totals by just a few inches. Can anyone tell me if there is any good reason for folks in most of NJ, other than some wind, to be overly excited by this storm? I'm all ears.

Because its a long duration event? Because the storm hasn't even reached peak intensity? Because it is filling in westward with banding? Because IMBY thoughts and worries should be in a banter thread?

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted

That said, the bands are slowing their westward progress now so they might make it to the NJ coast and NYC but stop there. The snow over central PA should work east at some point so there won't be a complete loss but I find it very hard to see amounts over 6" additional over western NJ. 

Looking like NYC and the NJ coast might be right inside the bands and rack up totals... but it will be close.

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WeatherFox

WeatherFox

Posted
Posted

Upton is now calling for 18-24 for NYC

Going down with the ship or wishfull thinking.  I hope they are at least close to being right.  Busting forecasts are so embarrassing.

I

MO, radar bands look good to raisie the totals in NYC and we have several hours overnight and into tomorrow.  Any thundersnow would also up the accumulations rapidly.  Good luck - guys!

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

NAM dropped the ball. RGEM is somewhat more optimistic verbatim but initializes 100 miles east of actual low from satellite imagery. 500-mb center has not cut off yet, will around 06z south of western LI. Surface low is clearly drifting north rather than northeast. Radar intermittently improving and filling west.

 

Overall would have to say reason for some optimism here that 15-25 inch totals can be achieved in NYC, some parts of n NJ although some parts of NJ and e PA are going to fall short. Long Island still very much in line to get major amounts 25-40 and heavy drifting. Winds are only two-thirds of the way to peak.

 

Would currently favor RGEM with 50 mile retrograde on 12z surface low position. Maybe GFS will finally work this out.

 

Slight chance of something very rare like a tight loop south of Long Island, capture may be messy given the chaos between the broad upper trough and the polar front. If that loop is long and wide enough, mega amounts could still develop.

 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Because its a long duration event? Because the storm hasn't even reached peak intensity? Because it is filling in westward with banding? Because IMBY thoughts and worries should be in a banter thread?

 

Because its a long duration event? Because the storm hasn't even reached peak intensity? Because it is filling in westward with banding? Because IMBY thoughts and worries should be in a banter thread?

They don't seem to be welcome even in the banter thread, but I did pose a question here, and you attempted to answer it, and I thank you for that. But, your reasoning does not seem to be swaying the experts. No disrespect intended. I guess we will all know by tomorrow.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

The twin forks are barely 0.75"+ on the 00z GFS. Whether it ends up being right about NW sections is neither here nor there, it's going to bust terribly out on LI.

 

I think its going to be exactly what several Mets said today, 15-30 miles east of the 12Z Euro or so, it was making small east shifts and probably would have made another if it ran early at 00Z like the NAM or GFS do.  The RGEM and GFS are definitely off.

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted
Mt Holly snippet

 

WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM

EARLIER TODAY AS WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN INTO THE HEAVIEST SNOW PERIOD

YET. HOWEVER, THE LATEST NAM HAS CUT BACK ON ITS SNOW TOTALS AND

IS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. SO WE HAVE CUT BACK TOTALS

SOME ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE WILL WAIT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES UNTIL

WE GET MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE STORM AND HAVE ALL THE 00Z

GUIDANCE IN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND

EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND DECREASING SOUTH AND WEST FROM THERE.

 


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