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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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NYC Weather Lover

NYC Weather Lover

Posted
Posted

Craig Allen getting worried that this may be a bust for western areas.

 

Are any other mets concerned what the hell is going on right now? You must be!

-I'm sitting here in Nassau County with 4-5" tops where the wind hasn't blown it away to bare ground. 
-Only light snow is falling. Heavy bands that try to progress west fall apart in Suffolk. 
-The western (back) edge of the snow can't get past EWR. 
-HRRR and RAP no longer show any moderate to heavy snow bands getting farther west thean central Suffolk Cty. They both no longer show the Low backing in north/northwest; it is progged to move slowly north/northeast. 
-The schizophrenic pos nam has backed way down again with under 6" for western NJ and and 12-18 for eastern LI and CT
-Lightning over the ocean has not shown any inland move. It's staying way out there.
- And the gfs, which has been just as consistent as the euro in it's own eastward thinking, is on the verge of pulling off an incredible coup. Ditto the rpm

IF, IF this trend holds, the only blizzard conditions will be over eastern suburbs. Nobody will come close to 2' in this region except the twin forks and definitely Block Island, Nantucket and Cape Cod.

I'm not downgrading my forecast yet; just venting frustration based on current obs and trends leading to pessimistic new data

 
 
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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Brooklyn NY

Upton

    Overnight: Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Windy, with a north wind 28 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

    Tuesday: Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 28. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Windy, with a northwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

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Jason215

Jason215

Posted
Posted

Yes and when it closes off, it will stop the westward progression but it will also be at its strongest. This is why long island and parts of Connecticut were so destroyed in February 2013. It closed off at H5 and just dumped on these areas.

I don't see why LI doesn't get into that same territory as Feb2013. That storm was much shorter lived and Some QPF was lost to rain. If we get 10hrs of 2per hour plus we already got 6 on the ground. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's supposed to snow for another 24 hrs from now, no?

-Jason

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Craig Allen getting worried that this may be a bust for western areas.

 

 

Craig Allen getting worried that this may be a bust for western areas.

 

Craig Allen getting worried that this may be a bust for western areas.

Well, it's somewhat interesting to know that I am not a total ignoramus for wondering the same thing and getting my posts deleted for being a Debbie downer. If Craig Allen is bouncing off the walls, we need to bounce with him.IMHO.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

OK, so John Bolaris, Joe Cioffi, Craig Allen and now John Marshall are all on the brink of throwing in the towel on this storm....that is a pretty good collection of weather minds....

 

 

OK, so John Bolaris, Joe Cioffi, Craig Allen and now John Marshall are all on the brink of throwing in the towel on this storm....that is a pretty good collection of weather minds....

Indeed it is. This is not Jersey's storm. Sometimes you eat the bear....

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NYI91Tavares

NYI91Tavares

Posted
Posted

OK, so John Bolaris, Joe Cioffi, Craig Allen and now John Marshall are all on the brink of throwing in the towel on this storm....that is a pretty good collection of weather minds....

 

 

Cutting totals for the west isn't throwing in the towel...there is still a very impressive storm going on. Just because its not going perfect in your backyard, doesn't mean any towels need to be thrown.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

its 10:00 pm do you know where your blizzard is???

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-rad-48

Hahaha I knew you'd make a cameo. I was actually with you on this one but like all of us got so caught up in it all. However, this will still be a 6-12 incher.....it's just the crazy stuff that won't happen

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