Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[swamplover56]

H5 looks good phase is kinda sloppy

[Allsnow]

upper levels on Goofus looks like the Euro... So that's good.

It's just slower closing off h5....the good news is we still get 6+...and 2 weeks ago I would have give everything away for that

[weathermedic]

Steve D just tweeted: @nynjpaweather: Everyone asking about the GFS, upper levels looks like ECMWF, surface off. Throwing out.

[SnoSki14]

geez im anxious...if the EURO would to cave to the gfs not saying it will that would be an epic fail n=based on its standards

You would still get 8" to possibly a foot of snow if the gfs happened to be right. People's standards are ridiculous and in this winter so far 8-12" is a HECS.

[DiehardFF]

Worse then the 76ers..

I think the euro holds or shifts west. Every model today has been stronger with the waves, and a stronger ridge creating higher heights. Clearly the 12z data ingest is favorable, IMO.

[SleetStormNJ]

I wonder what would cause the "stumble" then...in this case it wouldn't really be the GFS finally coming around, since it already did.....I'm wondering what would cause the GFS as well as the RGEM to lose the extreme solution for our area?....hopefully the euro holds serve

 

GFS looks ideal and excellent for us aloft.  It's surface depiction makes no sense.

 

RGEM is short-range.

[NJHurricane]

Im working in Greenpoint Brooklyn staying nearby at a hotel this week so I got a dog in this hunt...

Seems like some of the WRF show a lull/ breakdown in precip shield as it consolidates just east.I admit im still spooked at the delicate evolution of this thing...maybe as we get closer it shows heavy precip pushing back in on future runs.....hate to see forecasters take a credibility hit if this comes in a run of the mill 8 inches after Blizzard watches that have 1 to 2 foot wording

[jimbo073]

Very important question as to timing:

They are forecasting 1-3 tomorrow and then the heavy stuff tomorrow night. What time will the heavy stuff start? This is important for people who go to work tomorrow and then whether they need to leave early to avoid getting stuck on highways etc.... 

[Nygmen]

You would still get 8" to possibly a foot of snow if the gfs happened to be right. People's standards are ridiculous and in this winter so far 8-12" is a HECS.

yea id still get a major snowstorm but i want everyone to get slammed it would just be historical and cool...

[WintersGrasp]

Steve D just tweeted: @nynjpaweather: Everyone asking about the GFS, upper levels looks like ECMWF, surface off. Throwing out.

I'm missing something.....I've heard many say that the GFS low track is the same.....to me it looks unquestionably further south and east of its 6z run. Surface reflection aside, the actual track of the low is south and east as well

[Allsnow]

Very important question as to timing:

They are forecasting 1-3 tomorrow and then the heavy stuff tomorrow night. What time will the heavy stuff start? This is important for people who go to work tomorrow and then whether they need to leave early to avoid getting stuck on highways etc....

If the gfs is correct will be close to midnight Tuesday morning....euro has it earlier around pm rush

[Nygmen]

I'm missing something.....I've heard many say that the GFS low track is the same.....to me it looks unquestionably further south and east of its 6z run. Surface reflection aside, the actual track of the low is south and east as well

isnt that what surface reflection is lol...mslp

[yhbrooklyn]

You would still get 8" to possibly a foot of snow if the gfs happened to be right. People's standards are ridiculous and in this winter so far 8-12" is a HECS.

I hate Boston. If I get 8 and they get 30, it's a failure. Doesn't matter how bad this winter has been.

[swamplover56]

Aloft it looks as good or better than the nam will post a pic in a sec

[weatherfreeeeak]

Canadian time

[WintersGrasp]

I hate Boston. If I get 8 and they get 30, it's a failure. Doesn't matter how bad this winter has been.

Lol I think there is reverse psychology weeniism going on now here.....I don't truly believe that if we get 6-10" here, people will be ok with watching Boston get 3 feet, or 2 feet

[Nygmen]

GGEM?

[yhbrooklyn]

Lol I think there is reverse psychology weeniism going on now here.....I don't truly believe that if we get 6-10" here, people will be ok with watching Boston get 3 feet, or 2 feet

I think people are afraid to vocalize the jealousy. I say embrace it.

[WintersGrasp]

GGEM?

Should be coming in anytime now.....I'd be shocked actually if it didn't shift east and cut back for us as well, honestly

[Saturn510]

looks like the ggem slipped away lol

[SleetStormNJ]

GGEM?

 

Running now.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I think we need to lower our expectations. It looks like 1' is a good bet for NYC.

[WintersGrasp]

I think people are afraid to vocalize the jealousy. I say embrace it.

The way I see it...over 48 hours out, in the jackpot and on the SW edge of the heavy banding is never a particularly safe place to be

[jm1220]

I think people are afraid to vocalize the jealousy. I say embrace it.

I'm never OK with Boston getting crushed and NYC much less. I don't think this will be one of those outcomes.

[NEXtreme]

Most pro mets are LOLing at the GFS!

[cny_tornado_lover]

I guess if you don't like what the model shows, it is no good or has errors. hmmm. I guess GGEM being east has errors too. Throw it out 

[Guest Pamela]

Its always very, very difficult to say where the best banding is going to set up with these kind of systems...even the better mesoscale models have problems pinpointing it.

 

However, climatology is often very illustrative...this event bears considerable synoptic similarity to the 2/6/1978 storm...and, looking at snow totals from that event...being to the north and east is generally favorable for more snow...and being to the south and west...considerably less favorable. 

[NYI91Tavares]

Just please let Suffolk, specifically (ISP) get hammered. We've gotten the short end of the stick through every storm so far. Let this be our time.

[Nygmen]

apparently the ggem is coming east too...ugh

[MJO812]

Wait for euro