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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

I think if anyone's in for the bust, it might be Philly. They were always on the edge and the NWS bit hard on them getting a good snow event. This looks to end up somewhere between Boxing Day and 2/8/13 with the heavy banding. If that excludes Philly, Mt. Holly's going to have egg on their face. Models have consistently today been backing down there big time. 

 

Yeah, I think anyone west of the GSP up in NRN NJ may be in trouble, east of that they'll probably survive with double digits or more.

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted

Convection starting to flare to the SE of the death band (which looks to be around 40 DBZ  :o). Way to start off, guys. The storm at this point is E of the DelMarVa. Does anyone have any status of 7H and 5H? I think that 7H has closed off (according to Superstorm), but has H5 yet? The tilt is extremely negative so it should be almost there at this point.

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

I see nothing stopping that band from pivoting Westward and hitting the whole area. This storm is in no hurry and will eventually be stalling. 

u should be good for 12-16 as long as these bands keep rotating...16 would do it

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

I really dislike the subtle drop off in accums west and north of Essex, Bergen, Middlesex, and Union counties. I think the drop off will be severe and it's more a function of subsidence and very intense snows just to the east, than anything else...

 

Something else to consider is very dry air, low dews etc. Couple that with subsidence and it is little wonder why the westward progression has moved at a snail's pace.

 

Nevertheless, on the positive side, this system is still rapidly intensifying and has yet to close off at the upper levels. As such the westward expansion of the precip field is NOT close to being over. The best and easiest way to see this is on radar, and watching the intense bands continuing to march westward. Shortly after the system closes off at H500, that progression will cease, and you will see these bands sit over one location...Until then, keep watching the radar...

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/new-york-city/okx/?region=bgm

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted

Something else to consider is very dry air, low dews etc. Couple that with subsidence and it is little wonder why the westward progression has moved at a snail's pace.

Nevertheless, on the positive side, this system is still rapidly intensifying and has yet to close off at the upper levels. As such the westward expansion of the precip field is NOT close to being over. The best and easiest way to see this is on radar, and watching the intense bands continuing to march westward. Shortly after the system closes off at H500, that progression will cease, and you will see these bands sit over one location...Until then, keep watching the radar...

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/new-york-city/okx/?region=bgm

Nice to see you in here my friend
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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

Something else to consider is very dry air, low dews etc. Couple that with subsidence and it is little wonder why the westward progression has moved at a snail's pace.

 

Nevertheless, on the positive side, this system is still rapidly intensifying and has yet to close off at the upper levels. As such the westward expansion of the precip field is NOT close to being over. The best and easiest way to see this is on radar, and watching the intense bands continuing to march westward. Shortly after the system closes off at H500, that progression will cease, and you will see these bands sit over one location...Until then, keep watching the radar...

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/new-york-city/okx/?region=bgm

 

 

It seems closed off at 700 though.  and almost at 500.     A few more hours?

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Upton

 

.

..HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT BRONX...EASTERN PUTNAM...FAIRFIELD...KINGS
(BROOKLYN)...MIDDLESEX...NASSAU...NEW HAVEN...NEW LONDON...QUEENS...
SUFFOLK AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 943 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WORKING WEST FROM SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.

 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

The band over Suffolk county currently is a beast. It's expanding to the north and continues to rotate westward. That should be arriving in NYC and NE NJ by 11:30-12:00 or so. Pretty much right on target for when the core of the storm was set to begin. 

 

Looks like H5 is getting ready to close off. 

 

500mb_sf.gif?1422326875676

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F5TornadoF5

F5TornadoF5

Posted
Posted

Here it comes folks

 

Upton

.

.HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT BRONX...EASTERN PUTNAM...FAIRFIELD...KINGS

(BROOKLYN)...MIDDLESEX...NASSAU...NEW HAVEN...NEW LONDON...QUEENS...

SUFFOLK AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 943 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WORKING WEST FROM SUFFOLK COUNTY AND

SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

Winds really have picked up here in east Nassau....must be that approaching band :)

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

Here it comes folks

 

Upton

.

.HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT BRONX...EASTERN PUTNAM...FAIRFIELD...KINGS

(BROOKLYN)...MIDDLESEX...NASSAU...NEW HAVEN...NEW LONDON...QUEENS...

SUFFOLK AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 943 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WORKING WEST FROM SUFFOLK COUNTY AND

SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

 

Guess they figure no one in Manhattan is traveling.  We can't leave the island anyway.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

It seems closed off at 700 though.  and almost at 500.     A few more hours?

It probably has a couple of more hours to move west. As Jbenedet said, the upper levels haven't closed off yet and the radar still has good westward momentum. Where the bands stop is where there will likely be huge totals, since they won't pivot back east for quite some time.

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lisnow66

lisnow66

Posted
Posted

Getting nervous as Joe Cioffi on FB says he's worried if this doesn't close off soon much of the precip will go east. He said he will drastically cut amounts to the west if it doesn't do so soon. Says he has a new map ready to go. Hope that's not the case.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted

Correct I should have clarified--it is closed at 700. Model consensus is that this doesn't close off at H500 until around 10z Tuesday.

Yes and when it closes off, it will stop the westward progression but it will also be at its strongest. This is why long island and parts of Connecticut were so destroyed in February 2013. It closed off at H5 and just dumped on these areas.
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TheManWithNoFace

TheManWithNoFace

Posted
Posted

Getting nervous as Joe Cioffi on FB says he's worried if this doesn't close off soon much of the precip will go east. He said he will drastically cut amounts to the west if it doesn't do so soon. Says he has a new map ready to go. Hope that's not the case.

jbenedet this seems to be in conflict with your comment. Hoe does a closed low at 500 MB affect precip? Cioffi seems to imply that closing brings it west, while you say closing off at H5 pins it.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

Yes and when it closes off, it will stop the westward progression but it will also be at its strongest. This is why long island and parts of Connecticut were so destroyed in February 2013. It closed off at H5 and just dumped on these areas.

 

Yea. On a second look though this appears to want to close off earlier, around 6z or so...

 

Still plenty of time though...

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snow1

snow1

Posted
Posted

Getting nervous as Joe Cioffi on FB says he's worried if this doesn't close off soon much of the precip will go east. He said he will drastically cut amounts to the west if it doesn't do so soon. Says he has a new map ready to go. Hope that's not the case.

Link?
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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

jbenedet this seems to be in conflict with your comment. Hoe does a closed low at 500 MB affect precip? Cioffi seems to imply that closing brings it west, while you say closing off at H5 pins it.

 

Something else to consider is very dry air, low dews etc. Couple that with subsidence and it is little wonder why the westward progression has moved at a snail's pace.

 

Nevertheless, on the positive side, this system is still rapidly intensifying and has yet to close off at the upper levels. As such the westward expansion of the precip field is NOT close to being over. The best and easiest way to see this is on radar, and watching the intense bands continuing to march westward. Shortly after the system closes off at H500, that progression will cease, and you will see these bands sit over one location...Until then, keep watching the radar...

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/new-york-city/okx/?region=bgm

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