Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[jm1220]

Much of Nassau County within the meat of the earlier banding should exceed 20", since there's already 6" on the ground in some areas. 

 

And people freaking out-look at the Mt. Holly radar and the band off the NJ coast that is still clearly pushing west. The orientation of it is NE to SW, meaning nothing is stopping it from continuing west. When the orientation changes to N-S, then you know it's pivoting and won't come any further. That's likely the insane deformation axis models earlier had. 

[mikemost]

Is it just my radar or are sounding starting to pop up and fill in west of CT

Your eyes don't deceive. I'll take it... http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1KPHLa_h.gif

[Amped]

 

Still a lot of members have a funny band in the NW burbs

[IsentropicLift]

I was just looking at the radar loops and it's pretty clear that the banding will be spreading Westward soon. A new deformation band is beginning to fire right over Western Bergen County NJ and that should continue to expand to the south and west. Another band is about to push into NYC and the Sandy Hook area. I think that patience is the key here. The models have been all over the place with this one. As some mets have already tweeted out today, sometimes it's better to put down the models and use your own knowledge.

[winterwarlock]

lol you cannot say don't look at the NAM when its the one everyone was riding. It does matter because it cuts NYC totals big time and also really effects NJ which gets very little from this.

[NYStorm]

The banding over Suffolk County is pushing westward nicely and should keep doing so for another couple of hours. That would likely get heavy snow past NYC. From there it should pivot overhead for quite a while before it heads east tomorrow morning. Heavy snow is already just off the beaches of NJ. People need to stop panicking and just pay attention to obs. 

Why is it panicking when there is objective evidence from several models that call the high QPF forecast of 20"-30" in western zones into question?

[IsentropicLift]

That's also a really intense band that's moving across central Long Island as we speak. It's moving West at a good clip and I see no reason why it wouldn't continue to pivot towards the city and points West.

[IsentropicLift]

The HRRR also appears to be creeping Westward with each run. Patience.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

These bands are moving rather fast, and are no longer dying out.. I'm still nervous but feeling a little better, I've fallen victim of model watchin during a storm.. We NEED to nowcast CLEARLY

[WintersGrasp]

The NAM is a mess of a model overall and could definitely now be too far east after being too far west. Factoring in the other models, I'm sure 8-10" is still possible around NYC and still maybe 5-8" or so just west into jersey. Central and eastern long islanders could definitely still see 15-20", so no "storm cancel" there.....many of us in this subforum should still get clocked

[IsentropicLift]

Things are finally starting to pick up on radar. These systems never have completely solid precip shields. They have bands with subsidence in between.

[brooklynwx99]

Get ready guys, it's a'comin! Huge 30+ DBZ bands aimed right at NYC and across LI. Starting to fill in as well. Can anybody qualified answer me this: weren't we going to get into the big snows around 12? If so, it looks like the storm is ahead of schedule. 

[PB GFI]

KNYC is 1 at 12 to 1 that's 12 plus the 4 on the ground that's 16 .wow

[allgame830]

The NAM is a mess of a model overall and could definitely now be too far east after being too far west. Factoring in the other models, I'm sure 8-10" is still possible around NYC and still maybe 5-8" or so just west into jersey

NYC already has 5" come on now... I see no reason to believe that they won't double that

[SnoSki14]

I'm literally like 20 miles west of the snows come on baby a little bit more. 

[PB GFI]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
828 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

NJZ012>015-019-020-PAZ070-071-102>106-270230-
MERCER NJ-UPPER BUCKS PA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-
DELAWARE PA-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-OCEAN NJ-LOWER BUCKS PA-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-EASTERN CHESTER PA-
828 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.NOW...

AT 826 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SNOW
SQUALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF TRENTON TO 22 MILES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS SQUALL WILL BE NEAR OLD BRIDGE...NORTH
MIDDLETOWN...MATAWAN...LAWRENCEVILLE AROUND 840 PM...PENNS PARK...
JAMISON...NEWTOWN GRANT...HARLEYSVILLE AROUND 850 PM...WARRINGTON AND
MONTGOMERYVILLE AROUND 900 PM. SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER
HOUR AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SNOW
BAND. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

[IsentropicLift]

I'm right under that developing band over NE Morris County and it's coming down hard. Already picked up another 0.25" or so in the last fifteen minutes.

[NJCoast]

Band just came ashore. From cloudy to mod-heavy snow, hard to tell with the wind, in about 5 minutes.. So it's coming.

[RUMG11]

Well if the storm itself is moving slower, wouldn't that mean it will take a little while longer to get those bands westward?

Precisely. It's not like separate radars are in disagreement either. Just turn on a random radar and watch. It is clearly coming west and wrapping.

[Brian5671]

ways to go here folks.  let it unfold.  Those bands are now working west as the SLP explodes.

[stlirish]

Also many of the models (even the east ones) didn't have a band making it back west until the low closed off. All of this banding and snow now is the pre-game (at least for the city)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[brooklynwx99]

Well if the storm itself is moving slower, wouldn't that mean it will take a little while longer to get those bands westward?

The storm being slower would allow more time to develop and close off. And yes, the wait would be longer but the payoff would be well, well worth it. PATIENCE.

[IsentropicLift]

The winds are really starting to ramp up as well under this band. it seems as if it's bringing down some of the stronger winds aloft. 

[IsentropicLift]

There is just no way that the Euro would bust this badly inside of 24 hours. I would think that anyone from MMU and points east should see liquid 1"+.

[MJO812]

Slowly coming west. Patience.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[RUMG11]

Lol cape may county south is about the only area that's gonna get snubbed holy cow what a cut off in south jersey. Rest of the shore has some nice bands incoming

[donsutherland1]

While there remains a degree of uncertainty, the radar has been filling out.

 

[SnowGoose69]

Imagine how crazy people will get tomorrow when they find out there's not gonna be much snow.

 

As long as NYC gets another 8-10 inches nobody is going to notice anything because LI will get slammed. 

[jm1220]

I think if anyone's in for the bust, it might be Philly. They were always on the edge and the NWS bit hard on them getting a good snow event. This looks to end up somewhere between Boxing Day and 2/8/13 with the heavy banding. If that excludes Philly, Mt. Holly's going to have egg on their face. Models have consistently today been backing down there big time. 

[MJO812]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

Intense band moving west