Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

DT -

 

"People have to learn to follow the sequence of events. The break in snow over NYC and Northern NJ has been forecasted by most of the models over the past 2 days. It is not a surprise ... It is not a new development .

Eventually as the coastal LOW takes -- see IMAGE the heavy snow now over CT Long Island and southeastern Mass will get shoved in back into NYC Northern New Jersey. This is also how central and Southern New Jersey will see its accumulating snow. The fact that Carl Parker or some other TWC flunkie is now suggesting that the all the snow is over for next 30 hours in NYC... Just tell me that he should go back and find some other amazingly boring and tedious weather show to produce and host.... " WEATHER and your ANUS "

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted

38e9ccb88cf65c0100eacaca05811a53.jpg

The NAM is going to end up just being the NAM.....pretty much shuts down chances of a big snowstorm in jersey. More and more cards are on the table, and none other than the NAM support the huge snowstorm (for NJ at least....NYC east can still see a foot of snow). I hate to be so blunt, but model data is what is used for forecasts. Today I've seen a lot of "it's coming : it looks beautiful".....and ignoring the models, the very things the pros use to make the forecasts. This one does look beautiful, but it's just not ours.

I appreciate your insight and believe you to be a great poster..but boy you really do jump left or right rather quickly. Relax and look at the radar. This storm is still in its infancy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted

8:37PM Update:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. IMPRESSIVE LIFT VIA CLOUD TOP COOLING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...992 LOW PRESSURE (4 MB DEEPER IN THE LAST 3 HRS...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NE/N TO AROUND THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK. RADAR BLOSSOMING WITH BANDS OF SNOWFALL ADVECTING NW INTO LI/CT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES PICKING UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AS LARGE BANDS SOLIDIFY OVERNIGHT...RATES SHOULD PICK UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THOSE BANDS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NYC AND WESTERN LI WITH EARLIER CONVERGENCE BAND DROPPING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...STILL SOME MODEL VARIANCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION BEHAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH NAM SEEMING LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST BANDING WILL GET. THE HUDSON RIVER DOWN TO NYC/NJ METRO SEEMS LIKES THE FAVORED WESTERN BOUNDARY OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE STRENGTH AND EXPANSE OF DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND NEGATIVE TILTING OF UPPER ENERGY...AND WCB CONVECTION TO E OF LOW...NOT READY TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGE TO SNOWFALL FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AFTER 06Z OR SO WHERE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF BANDING WILL DEVELOP. AND WITH THESE MILLER B TYPE SYSTEMS...THEY TRADITIONALLY HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP TO WEST OF THE MAIN BANDING. SO AT THAT POINT WILL HAVE BETTER EVIDENCE ON REFINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UNDER BAND LOCATIONS AND DECREASING SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...