Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[rogue]

That's the additional precip BTW. It's not including what already fell. 

 

 

It's the 21Z SREF, which means it includes 4:00 PM as start time. 

[stlirish]

On your doorstep by 9:30 Jersey shore

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[jm1220]

Wow...Blizzard cancel????  John Bolaris is now saying NYC could be cut-off of plowable snow, with just 6-10", less across NJ, 18"+ for eastern tip of LI!   WTF!  DiMartino must be sweating.

NYC already has up to 5". Sorry, but John Bolaris is completely off his rocker. 

[allgame830]

This storm is definitely making its push WEST because it was barely snowing 20 minutes now it has begun again.

[stlirish]

This thing hasn't even gotten rolling yet. These lull was expected. We are not supposed to be ripping snow until 10-Midnight. Good grief people

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[Mophstymeo]

NYC already has up to 5". Sorry, but John Bolaris is completely off his rocker.

I think they're talking about what was supposed to come. Things were supposed to get "cranking" at 9 PM. I don't think anything's getting cranking . . . At least not in NYC.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Off graphics, looks more like 1"+ for NYC, and generally less than the 15Z.

 

That's the additional amounts. 

[MJO812]

DT -

 

"People have to learn to follow the sequence of events. The break in snow over NYC and Northern NJ has been forecasted by most of the models over the past 2 days. It is not a surprise ... It is not a new development .

Eventually as the coastal LOW takes -- see IMAGE the heavy snow now over CT Long Island and southeastern Mass will get shoved in back into NYC Northern New Jersey. This is also how central and Southern New Jersey will see its accumulating snow. The fact that Carl Parker or some other TWC flunkie is now suggesting that the all the snow is over for next 30 hours in NYC... Just tell me that he should go back and find some other amazingly boring and tedious weather show to produce and host.... " WEATHER and your ANUS "

 

[jm1220]

I think people will be singing a much different tune in a couple more hours. The snow is definitely still pivoting west and is intensifying south of Montauk on Upton's radar. 

[hinyho]

Jersey Shore looks like it's about to get hit with a strong band of snow from Long Branch to Toms River.  

[Thundersnow12]

FWIW it does look like the 0z HRRR has shifted west *some* compared to its previous runs. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

It's the 21Z SREF, which means it includes 4:00 PM as start time. 

 

Not much has fallen after 4PM, so it could be pretty intense around midnight. 

[RUMG11]

The NAM is going to end up just being the NAM.....pretty much shuts down chances of a big snowstorm in jersey. More and more cards are on the table, and none other than the NAM support the huge snowstorm (for NJ at least....NYC east can still see a foot of snow). I hate to be so blunt, but model data is what is used for forecasts. Today I've seen a lot of "it's coming : it looks beautiful".....and ignoring the models, the very things the pros use to make the forecasts. This one does look beautiful, but it's just not ours.

I appreciate your insight and believe you to be a great poster..but boy you really do jump left or right rather quickly. Relax and look at the radar. This storm is still in its infancy.

[Snowlover11]

people need to relax, the lull was expected. the precip field looks to be expanding west. nyc and the jersey shore should be snowing within the next 30-45 mins.

[The 4 Seasons]

8:37PM Update:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. IMPRESSIVE LIFT VIA CLOUD TOP COOLING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...992 LOW PRESSURE (4 MB DEEPER IN THE LAST 3 HRS...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NE/N TO AROUND THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK. RADAR BLOSSOMING WITH BANDS OF SNOWFALL ADVECTING NW INTO LI/CT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES PICKING UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AS LARGE BANDS SOLIDIFY OVERNIGHT...RATES SHOULD PICK UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THOSE BANDS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NYC AND WESTERN LI WITH EARLIER CONVERGENCE BAND DROPPING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...STILL SOME MODEL VARIANCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION BEHAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH NAM SEEMING LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST BANDING WILL GET. THE HUDSON RIVER DOWN TO NYC/NJ METRO SEEMS LIKES THE FAVORED WESTERN BOUNDARY OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE STRENGTH AND EXPANSE OF DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND NEGATIVE TILTING OF UPPER ENERGY...AND WCB CONVECTION TO E OF LOW...NOT READY TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGE TO SNOWFALL FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AFTER 06Z OR SO WHERE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF BANDING WILL DEVELOP. AND WITH THESE MILLER B TYPE SYSTEMS...THEY TRADITIONALLY HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP TO WEST OF THE MAIN BANDING. SO AT THAT POINT WILL HAVE BETTER EVIDENCE ON REFINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UNDER BAND LOCATIONS AND DECREASING SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

[SnowGoose69]

This is the RGEM's biggest bust in awhile, here was it's 12Z run's forecast from 00-03z...not even close...its easily 40-50 miles too far ESE

 

[mikemost]

Looks as if NYC & coastal NJ will still make out fine as the low intensifies & generates additional forcing. I'll admit that areas just west, it's looking a bit dicier. But there is certainly still time with the slower evolution noted.

[IsentropicLift]

NAM is rolling

[NJCoast]

I'm about a mile from the beach in Point Pleasant, should know in the next 10-15 minutes if that band has the goods.

[Mophstymeo]

From Bernie Rayno:

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Is it just my radar or are sounding starting to pop up and fill in west of CT

[NJCowboy]

DT -

 

Years ago, Carl Parker was the janitor at TWC...when Paul Kocin was the expert...

[WintersGrasp]

NAM is MUCH further east

[Neblizzard]

NAM is MUCH further east[/quote

NOAA needs to retire that model.

[IsentropicLift]

NAM starts pushing the bands NW over the next two hours

[RUMG11]

Lol two post completely contradicting each other without 30 seconds.

[Superstorm93]

00z NAM is way east of its 18z run. 

 

Thats a pretty good kick in the groin. 

[weatherlogix]

one guys says its MUCH further east - the other says theNAM pushes bands west over the next two hours....please, one person do the analysis.

[pazzo83]

Lol two post completely contradicting each other without 30 seconds.

 

Right?  Getting ridiculous.  Let's let Yanks do the PBP.

[dmillz25]

Snow starting to pick up a bit in Brooklyn now