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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted

Patience my friend. Things are on track, but the storm is moving a touch slower. Great for capturing purposes, but agony as we wait for the storm to explode. It will be worth it...

I agree with you here. If the storm is indeed moving slower, then the storm will have more time to capture and develop. This would lead to greater development and possible NNW/NW movement in storm track. If so, then it will be well worth it in the end. 

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted

Man this storm looks absolutely beautiful at 500 mb with that negative trough, you'd think this would be an absolutely huge hit for TTN-NYC on northeast. This wait is agonizing, I'm having flashbacks to March of 2001. Just gotta have patience. However having the short term models and the GFS so far east is making me very anxious.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

I agree with you here. If the storm is indeed moving slower, then the storm will have more time to capture and develop. This would lead to greater development and possible NNW/NW movement in storm track. If so, then it will be well worth it in the end. 

Hey brooklynw99, what's your avatar from? 2014?

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

come on no model had that band that formed on some sort of front. the nam got it right for the wrong reasons

If the model initializes better than any other model and its representation matches what is aloft what do you do toss it ?

 

Have some patience

WPC

 

MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF SNOWFALL RATES COINCIDENT

   WITH STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR

   ASCENT INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN LONG ISLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC

   PERIOD.  INITIALLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE

   CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF RI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF

   MA BUT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC PERIOD.

   IT IS LIKELY THE HEAVIER RATES /2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER/ WILL

   OCCUR BEYOND 04Z CONCURRENT WITH INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR

   ASCENT FAVORABLY TIMED WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS OVER SRN

   ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND.

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted

If the model initializes better than any other model and its representation matches what is aloft what do you do toss it ?

 

Have some patience

WPC

 

MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF SNOWFALL RATES COINCIDENT

   WITH STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR

   ASCENT INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN LONG ISLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC

   PERIOD.  INITIALLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE

   CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF RI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF

   MA BUT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC PERIOD.

   IT IS LIKELY THE HEAVIER RATES /2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER/ WILL

   OCCUR BEYOND 04Z CONCURRENT WITH INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR

   ASCENT FAVORABLY TIMED WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS OVER SRN

   ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND.

i am, im saying euro has better handle and has most precip falling by me between 1am and 1pm. im just saying the nam was off

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

It looks to me like it shows the sharp cutoff anywhere west of Long Island. Reflects the east trend not of the storm, but of the advancing precip shield and bands. Can you confirm? If so, our plumes are going to take a big dip

Looks like 1.25+ for NYC eastward. Sharp gradient to the west.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

38e9ccb88cf65c0100eacaca05811a53.jpg

The NAM is going to end up just being the NAM.....pretty much shuts down chances of a big snowstorm in jersey. More and more cards are on the table, and none other than the NAM support the huge snowstorm (for NJ at least....NYC east can still see a foot of snow). I hate to be so blunt, but model data is what is used for forecasts. Today I've seen a lot of "it's coming : it looks beautiful".....and ignoring the models, the very things the pros use to make the forecasts. This one does look beautiful, but it's just not ours.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The snow is moving west-patience. The NJ Shore should be snowing soon with the band rotating in from the east, and the heavy stuff over Suffolk will keep pivoting west. The storm is still very much in the developing stages, and the bands won't stop coming west until the low stacks which won't be for a while. I think the NJ shore, NYC and Long Island are good to go, the questionable area is Philly and the DE River, where Mt. Holly forecasted 10-14 inches. I think that may be in trouble given the sharp edge the snow will have to the west.

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

Posted
Posted

There is no doubt in my mind that this storm has been captured.  Just because the H7 hasn't closed is not a concern as of yet.  If it doesn't close by 01/27/0z-04z we may have a problem.  I'm encouraged it hasn't closed off yet, as that would mean the storm is at it's strongest, and would quickly weaken thereafter.

 

700mb_sf.gif?1422321958001

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted

The snow is moving west-patience. The NJ Shore should be snowing soon with the band rotating in from the east, and the heavy stuff over Suffolk will keep pivoting west. The storm is still very much in the developing stages, and the bands won't stop coming west until the low stacks which won't be for a while. I think the NJ shore, NYC and Long Island are good to go, the questionable area is Philly and the DE River, where Mt. Holly forecasted 10-14 inches. I think that may be in trouble given the sharp edge the snow will have to the west.

Thank you finally some word of reasoning... We all seem to freak out with every storm but I do have to tell you this really is agonizing in regards to the waiting!

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