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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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NEXtreme

NEXtreme

Posted
Posted

JOE CIOFFI: HOW IS THE EURO DOING SO FAR?

This is what the Euro forecasted for snow ending at 7pm this evening. Based on reports which include over 4 inches in NYC so far. Almost spot on! The NAM 18z snowfall ending 7pm also very close. The GFS? That dark blue is all less the 0.5 inches ending 7pm. Considering that New York City and Long Island already have 2 to 4 inches on the ground. Score 1 for the Euro and Nam..

0 GFS

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted

What do you folks make of this?(Saw it on Bernie Rayno's twitter feed.)

I personally think he's spot on right now. H5 is very negative and the storm is being captured as we speak. This storm is going to stay West. Just look at the jet streaks at H3.
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wkd

wkd

Posted
Posted

Larry cosgrove on fb just said the low is forming over Moorhead city, "forming west of predicted center which seals the fate of NYC and LI"

Sent from my iPhone

Looking at the SPC surface analysid at 22Z I don't see any low near Moorehead city.

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Jersey Shore snow

Jersey Shore snow

Posted
Posted

There is a problem with the HRRR for coastal cyclones. Remember radar reflectivity is integrated into its initial conditions, where it prescribes a latent heating profile that corresponds to the reflectivity. However when most of the precipitation is offshore, the HRRR can only see what the radar sees: the upper level portion of the of cloud producing precip. Thus it wouldn't be surprising if the HRRR is underestimating the latent heat release occurring with the ongoing precipitation offshore, ultimately resulting in a weaker more eastward cyclone. Some food for thought.

 

This is great information....and much appreciated.   File this away....dont use the HRRR for a Miller B

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
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If you look at the 12Z runs and check precip shield valid at 12 hours it's not quite as good as the NAM but the GFS was too Far East, I would say it's a 75-25 NAM split.

this storm looks to be moving more slowly than the models showed... that should bode well for an earlier capture
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weatherdude888

weatherdude888

Posted
Posted

I think TWC might be off the deep end......they forecast 9 - 11 for Staten Island, while Upton has me at 18 - 24.

 

Just as a side question, living in Staten Island, is it safer to use EWR or NYC, there have been times (like Saturday's storm) where we measure vastly different numbers (I think NYC registered 2.5ish while here in Staten Island an official measurement was 4.8 or 5)

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
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If you look at the 12Z runs and check precip shield valid at 12 hours it's not quite as good as the NAM but the GFS was too Far East, I would say it's a 75-25 NAM split.

If you look at the 12Z runs and check precip shield valid at 12 hours it's not quite as good as the NAM but the GFS was too Far East, I would say it's a 75-25 NAM split.

If you look at the 12Z runs and check precip shield valid at 12 hours it's not quite as good as the NAM but the GFS was too Far East, I would say it's a 75-25 NAM split.

I agree with this. Also, the best frontogenetic forcing isn't progged to get here until after midnight. We have plenty of time.

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White Gorilla

White Gorilla

Posted
Posted

I swear this storm is making me insane. I've never had so many highs and lows (relative) in 24 hours before.

The model disparity is ridiculous and disheartening. How can one camp end up being so wrong so close?

I am with you. What is making this setup so complex more than usual Miller Bs? Do Miller As usually invite more model convergance than Miller Bs?

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