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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
Posted

I listened to their forecast and they never said anything about that... Still have the same amounts and stated blizzard conditions after 10pm

Yeah they said radar trends and nowcasting will need to be your friend in figuring out where the best bands set up. But they are calling for 1-2 ft in NYC metro.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I agree. NWS is choosing the solution that probably makes the most sense based upon how past storms have behaved (Bill's post yesterday about the heaviest snow often being west of the guidance), how things are currently developing, and which models have done best so far.  .

 

Bill said the best forcing on the western side was only seen by the European and was being missed by all the models , TBF the SREFs were there to some degree .

The NAM got this today and is ALL IN ,I hope it`s right .

 

But look if the Euro is right its 18 at KNYC ( Where they already have 4.3 ) and 25 on Long Island  if the NAM is right is 25 at KNYC and 30 on Long Island .

Hurricane force S of Montauk , Lightning tonite regardless , 2- 4 inch per hour rates and 55 MPH gusts from the city E .

 

That's your floor and ceiling . I like it .....

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BoulderWX

BoulderWX

Posted
Posted

Bill said the best forcing on the western side was only seen by the European and was being missed by all the models , TBF the SREFs were there to some degree .

The NAM got this today and is ALL IN ,I hope it`s right .

 

But look if the Euro is right its 18 at KNYC ( Where they already have 4.3 ) and 25 on Long Island  if the NAM is right is 25 at KNYC and 30 on Long Island .

Hurricane force S of Montauk , Lightning tonite regardless , 2- 4 inch per hour rates and 55 MPH gusts from the city E .

 

That's your floor and ceiling . I like it .....

that's your floor and ceiling if you're ONLY using those two models - if you want to lean on them sure, but to discount ALL other guidance, you'r a braver man than I -- good thing is, no need to debate it, we'll know in less than 18 hours..

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted

Accuweather NY Jeff Smith and Lee Goldberg says very difficult forecast, however since there are signs of the band that is in LI/NYC/NJ now diminishing, it is supportive of a further east development of the precip for New England. Showed the NAM run and said they are leaning away from a band developing so far west.....Said they are just waiting for radar confirmation to change anything, but there are already signs of the heaviest bands developing over New England and pulling the slug of moisture NE for them. These guys are not amateurs so if they are seeing something, it can't be "tossed"

I just watched that segment and that's not what they said. Just saying. Nothing personal bc I like your posts.

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SRRTA22

SRRTA22

Posted
Posted

I can't post any images right now, but I'm staring at a 700mb cyclonic wind field.

 

(Albeit weak) 

 

 

Ah I see , thank you for the reply. Really don't see the NAM/Euro losing this one, even if they might be just a tad bit too west. Like you stated, alot of time left for the low to close off for the perfect scenario for EWR east and even west of there 15"+ looks good

Dont see GFS scoring a coup with this one

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Bill said the best forcing on the western side was only seen by the European and was being missed by all the models , TBF the SREFs were there to some degree .

The NAM got this today and is ALL IN ,I hope it`s right .

 

But look if the Euro is right its 18 at KNYC ( Where they already have 4.3 ) and 25 on Long Island  if the NAM is right is 25 at KNYC and 30 on Long Island .

Hurricane force S of Montauk , Lightning tonite regardless , 2- 4 inch per hour rates and 55 MPH gusts from the city E .

 

That's your floor and ceiling . I like it .....

I like it, as well. Even if NYC slips into the 12"-18" category in the end, that would still be a major storm. I suspect we'll be at or above 20" and possibly quite a bit higher if the banding develops and moves over the City.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

that's your floor and ceiling if you're ONLY using those two models - if you want to lean on them sure, but to discount ALL other guidance, you'r a braver man than I -- good thing is, no need to debate it, we'll know in less than 18 hours..

I like UPTONS take . This happens at the beginning of every storm . The radar hasn't fully filled in and everyone runs to the worst models and pull the fire alarm .

This is a dynamic system and even if the NAM is roided up

I have the Euro in my pocket.

Upton has to some degree dismissed the GFS since 12z yesterday. That gives me insight on how I should be looking at this. In 4 or 5 hours this should fill and then we start counting . 1 thing though there is already 3 to 5 around the area with that 1 small slug of moisture.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

The HRRR at 10-15hrs has been way too dry for the few systems here I have followed it this year in the 10+ hour range, it has always trended wetter hour by hour, I wonder if the NWS gave it an "upgrade" this year....

There is a problem with the HRRR for coastal cyclones. Remember radar reflectivity is integrated into its initial conditions, where it prescribes a latent heating profile that corresponds to the reflectivity. However when most of the precipitation is offshore, the HRRR can only see what the radar sees: the upper level portion of the of cloud producing precip. Thus it wouldn't be surprising if the HRRR is underestimating the latent heat release occurring with the ongoing precipitation offshore, ultimately resulting in a weaker more eastward cyclone. Some food for thought.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

A quick note regarding the HRRR...

 

So far, it hasn't been verifying very well in terms of total snowfall.

 

HRRR0126201512z.jpg

 

Actual accumulations:

000
NOUS41 KOKX 262231
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-271031-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
531 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 10
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 0.8 400 PM 1/26 COOP

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
EAST RUTHERFORD 2.6 350 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
SADDLE BROOK 2.4 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIDGEWOOD 2.4 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
FRANKLIN LAKES 2.2 321 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
NEW MILFORD 1.8 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
ENGLEWOOD 1.5 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
MONTVALE 1.5 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
MIDLAND PARK 1.4 224 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
FORT LEE 1.2 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
WOODCLIFF LAKE 1.0 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
RAMSEY 1.0 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
CEDAR GROVE 2.0 340 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
NEWARK AIRPORT 1.8 400 PM 1/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
MAPLEWOOD 1.5 430 PM 1/26 PUBLIC

...HUDSON COUNTY...
NORTH BERGEN 3.1 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
RINGWOOD 1.5 500 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
WAYNE 1.5 340 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
WOODLAND PARK 1.0 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...NASSAU COUNTY...
BETHPAGE 4.0 354 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
HICKSVILLE 4.0 450 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
PLAINVIEW 4.0 330 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
BELLEROSE 3.4 500 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
MALVERNE 3.1 430 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
EAST MEADOW 3.0 330 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
BELLMORE 3.0 450 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
FLORAL PARK 2.0 345 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH MASSAPEQUA 0.8 100 PM 1/26 NWS EMPLOYEE

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 4.3 400 PM 1/26 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
GREENVILLE 2.0 330 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

...QUEENS COUNTY...
REGO PARK 4.8 514 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
BAYSIDE 4.0 449 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
FRESH MEADOWS 3.0 300 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
NYC/LA GUARDIA 2.5 400 PM 1/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
WHITESTONE 2.0 230 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 1.8 400 PM 1/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
BELLAIRE 1.1 200 PM 1/26 PUBLIC

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
SLOATSBURG 1.5 500 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
STONY POINT 1.0 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
NORTH BABYLON 2.5 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
PATCHOGUE 2.0 330 PM 1/26 NWS EMPLOYEE
ISLIP AIRPORT 2.0 400 PM 1/26 ASOS
UPTON 1.3 500 PM 1/26 NWS OFFICE

$

AL
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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

There is a problem with the HRRR for coastal cyclones. Remember radar reflectivity is integrated into its initial conditions, where it prescribes a latent heating profile that corresponds to the reflectivity. However when most of the precipitation is offshore, the HRRR can only see what the radar sees: the upper level portion of the of cloud producing precip. Thus it wouldn't be surprising if the HRRR is underestimating the latent heat release occurring with the ongoing precipitation offshore, ultimately resulting in a weaker more eastward cyclone. Some food for thought.

 

Bingo. Well said. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

 

A quick note regarding the HRRR...

 

So far, it hasn't been verifying very well in terms of total snowfall.

 

HRRR0126201512z.jpg

 

Actual accumulations:

000
NOUS41 KOKX 262231
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-271031-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
531 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 10
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 0.8 400 PM 1/26 COOP

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
EAST RUTHERFORD 2.6 350 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
SADDLE BROOK 2.4 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIDGEWOOD 2.4 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
FRANKLIN LAKES 2.2 321 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
NEW MILFORD 1.8 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
ENGLEWOOD 1.5 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
MONTVALE 1.5 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
MIDLAND PARK 1.4 224 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
FORT LEE 1.2 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
WOODCLIFF LAKE 1.0 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
RAMSEY 1.0 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
CEDAR GROVE 2.0 340 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
NEWARK AIRPORT 1.8 400 PM 1/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
MAPLEWOOD 1.5 430 PM 1/26 PUBLIC

...HUDSON COUNTY...
NORTH BERGEN 3.1 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
RINGWOOD 1.5 500 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
WAYNE 1.5 340 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
WOODLAND PARK 1.0 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...NASSAU COUNTY...
BETHPAGE 4.0 354 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
HICKSVILLE 4.0 450 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
PLAINVIEW 4.0 330 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
BELLEROSE 3.4 500 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
MALVERNE 3.1 430 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
EAST MEADOW 3.0 330 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
BELLMORE 3.0 450 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
FLORAL PARK 2.0 345 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH MASSAPEQUA 0.8 100 PM 1/26 NWS EMPLOYEE

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 4.3 400 PM 1/26 CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
GREENVILLE 2.0 330 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

...QUEENS COUNTY...
REGO PARK 4.8 514 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
BAYSIDE 4.0 449 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
FRESH MEADOWS 3.0 300 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
NYC/LA GUARDIA 2.5 400 PM 1/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
WHITESTONE 2.0 230 PM 1/26 PUBLIC
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 1.8 400 PM 1/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
BELLAIRE 1.1 200 PM 1/26 PUBLIC

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
SLOATSBURG 1.5 500 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
STONY POINT 1.0 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
NORTH BABYLON 2.5 400 PM 1/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
PATCHOGUE 2.0 330 PM 1/26 NWS EMPLOYEE
ISLIP AIRPORT 2.0 400 PM 1/26 ASOS
UPTON 1.3 500 PM 1/26 NWS OFFICE

$

AL

I think it`s a little light there is 4 in Brooklyn 5 in Queens and up on the North shore in Nassau County  . There is prob 5 at the park by now .

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