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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

It's a little different. The 18-24" range was shifted west a tad on the latest map.

 

 

Nope updated 351

 

I also thought the NWS in Mt. Holly expanded the 18-24" swath and the 12-18" swath westward a bit from this morning (10-15 miles), but I can't actually tell for sure, since these friggin cut/pasted maps are "live" in that if you go back a day or two, you only see the current time-stamped maps.  I find it very frustrating that the maps don't remain static, with the original time stamp.  I think you can do that if you save the file to your PC, but that's annoying to have to do.  Anyone know any tricks to making the snowfall maps stay static (short of saving them to some hosting site)?  Thanks.  

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
Posted

Can anyone elaborate on why the short range models (hrrr/rap to be specific) are steadfast thus far in keeping the bulk of the moisture over LI/off shore/into NE? I recognize the fact that the strong dynamics seem to be having an effect. But I was wondering if someone could explain a bit more in depth.

Would love to hear a mets opinion on this too.  Its mind boggling to see this still.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Looking at the RAP/HRRR runs, they don't look so far off what is happening right now in regards to the development of the banding. They do show some of the smaller details and bands, as well as the huge band approaching the SNE coast. In a matter of a few hours or so we will know if it is true, but I cannot recall it ever completely busting on events that will occur in a matter of hours. I sure hope it does though

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yhbrooklyn

yhbrooklyn

Posted
Posted

Looking at the RAP/HRRR runs, they don't look so far off what is happening right now in regards to the development of the banding. They do show some of the smaller details and bands, as well as the huge band approaching the SNE coast. In a matter of a few hours or so we will know if it is true, but I cannot recall it ever completely busting on events that will occur in a matter of hours. I sure hope it does though

It's terrifying.

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swamplover56

swamplover56

Posted
Posted

The water vapor loop is phenomenal. With the 850 mb wind current hooking right into the tri state I just don't see this escaping to the north east without demolishing the area. What would be

the forcing to turn it away from the area?

This is exactly what I want the more knowledgeable posters to answer

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

It's terrifying.

I  will be VERY, VERY disappointed if I end up getting the extremely low totals that these short range models are spitting out, as well as the GFS, etc, etc.....But it really is intriguing to not only watch the storm play out, but also to watch such discrepancy in forecasts ! TWC now going under a foot, less in NJ, most local stations i've seen are going 20-30+, NWS 20-30" and riding what is unanimously considered to be the most unreliable model there is !! Fun and yes, terrifying as well

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

Well it looks like we are close to closing off a low @ 700mb. If we want anything similar to the NAM/ECM, then you would want to see this closed off and ready to go no later than 23z. This would mean that the precip over LI would begin to pivot NW in addition to precip developing offshore and moving into NJ, and things would really begin to get interesting. Thankfully we still have about 14 hours or so before the deadline for the 500mb low to close off is up. 

 

Right now things are still looking pretty solid. 

 

 

 

(No images for a while, photobucket is down) 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

I think UPTON is going to nail this .

 

3 to 5 inches around through the 5 boroughs onto Long Island , well ahead of the European so far .

I agree. NWS is choosing the solution that probably makes the most sense based upon how past storms have behaved (Bill's post yesterday about the heaviest snow often being west of the guidance), how things are currently developing, and which models have done best so far.  .

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smoof

smoof

Posted
Posted

I would imagine good... further SW allows for a better starting position, and slower allows more time for the LP to close off (mets correct me if my explanation is flawed). 

You're right, looks like the NAM is going to win, the only question is how overboard it's qpf totals are, I think 24-36" is a good bet for NYC / especially over to East LI.

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ENYsnow

ENYsnow

Posted
Posted

I would imagine good... further SW allows for a better starting position, and slower allows more time for the LP to close off (mets correct me if my explanation is flawed). 

It's all about the mid- and upper-levels right now like superstorm said.. the sfc reflection will appear to jump as the upper-levels evolve. close off quicker at H5 and H7 then it should come further NW

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

The SIM radar of the NAM does not seem to match up to what is happening. Other models seem closer (yes, less favorable ones) including the short range ones that i'd be hard-pressed to toss at this point hours away. Have to go out for a while.....Be back later.....But a word of advice.....I'm so far from being good at all of this, but I would NOT buy into the hype at this point.....I see around a foot or a bit more for NYC, but this is New England's storm, along with parts of LI. I've been looking at things to see if they match up with the NAM/Euro runs, and some o, but not to the degree that they are showing, and what would cause tons of precip to be thrown back westward. I think we will see that start to rear it's ugly head in a matter of 2 or 3 hours. No one is wrong until we see the outcome, but i'd personally bet pretty high on the NAM blowing this one. Cheers and hoping for the best still !!

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