Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[rossi]

GFS still shows a foot which would be a welcome sight. Onto the Euro.

The only model that matters in big coastal storms is the Euro. No ands, ifs or but's.

Rossi

[bluewave]

Par for the course with the GFS as it is generally too far east with major EC cyclogenesis.

[yhbrooklyn]

Wildly conservative considering model guidance

Wildly conservative often works in NYC.

[cleetussnow]

That was winter storm nemo I believe, incredible snow fall rates and thunder snow

Any chance this storm has thunder snow

Sure. Hard to know, it's pretty rare.

[danstorm]

Quite a bit less favorable on the 12z GFS...

I'm discounting heavily this POS model.

Unless the Euro backs off, I'm close to locking in 10+ for this forum and 15+ for NYC East.

[HailMan06]

NAM being more amped than the GFS to me is a signal of the GFS's se bias in these situations.

[WintersGrasp]

GFS is close to 12" for NYC, EPIC for BOS (maybe their best run?).....should be nearing 3ft

[Christopher]

Will nyc break the 27 inch snowfall?

[rossi]

I'm discounting heavily this POS model.

Unless the Euro backs off, I'm close to locking in 10+ for this forum and 15+ for NYC East.

And that's conservative!!

Rossi

[SleetStormNJ]

GFS does not have the trough orientation like it had before (really deep and sharp) which of course allows it to move a bit to the East before closing off.

It also cuts off precip really early on Tuesday.

Right now it's on it's own.

[IrishRob17]

Wildly conservative often works in NYC.

Truth and the 'go wild' audience will never realize this fact.

[yhbrooklyn]

Agonizing 2 hours now to see if the Euro holds. GFS isn't terrible within 48 hours. Everything is a possibility at this point.

[forkyfork]

I'm discounting heavily this POS model.

Unless the Euro backs off, I'm close to locking in 10+ for this forum and 15+ for NYC East.

 

it's dropped the ball so many times before major ec events. i hate that the first models to come out are the worst ones

[SleetStormNJ]

Agonizing 2 hours now to see if the Euro holds. GFS isn't terrible within 48 hours. Everything is a possibility at this point.

 

GFS is a major league waffler.  It also tends to elongate the precipitation shield too much.  It definitely did that this run.

[Nygmen]

Agonizing 2 hours now to see if the Euro holds. GFS isn't terrible within 48 hours. Everything is a possibility at this point.

yes it is it was too far se the whole time with the last storm...i would be SHOCKED if the euro made that big jump east within 24 hours

[Allsnow]

it's dropped the ball so many times before major ec events. i hate that the first models to come out are the worst ones

This. The upgrade did nothing to fix it...

[SACRUS]

1/25 12z Summary

NYC area : QPF (Snow)

 

 

SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")

NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")

GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")

RGEM: 1.00 (>12")

[SnoSki14]

I don't think we need to sweat on the gfs. Just look at the huge shift from 06 to 12z on the Nam and the gfs could easily do the same. If the Euro is like this then you could be concerned. However even in the least snowiest scenario 8" is basically a lock.

[cleetussnow]

Will nyc break the 27 inch snowfall?

Definite maybe. By this time tomorrow we might know more about if the city is even going over 16 or so. Fluff factor like the 27 incher might be the difference. That was 2006 I think?

[DiehardFF]

It actually looked better early on aloft. This could still trend 25-50 miles west.

[JBG]

Definite maybe. By this time tomorrow we might know more about if the city is even going over 16 or so. Fluff factor like the 27 incher might be the difference. That was 2006 I think?

2006 was fluff. Most of it gone in about 2 days. But then again it was later and it was around 50.

[RUMG11]

Truth and the 'go wild' audience will never realize this fact.

Wouldn't say I'm in the "go wild" audience. But 8 inches just seems low for NYC here given the evidence we have showing otherwise. Could be wrong...lets wait for the euro

[SACRUS]

Guidance not Verbatim. Live by these words my friends. A classic is on the way, use the computers to guide. They wont get banding right especially the lower res GFS. The trends are clear. A whopper is imminent. This has always been a ENJ/LI/SNE bullseye but I expect many from PHL to TTN will do quite well. We are talking foot to feet.....

[HailMan06]

Just looking to stir the pot or has no idea what a trend is. Move on.

If the Euro holds the other models will likely catch on later today and tonight. Then it's game on!

[cleetussnow]

2006 was fluff. Most of it gone in about 2 days. But then again it was later and it was around 50.

That was an otherwise bad winter. That single storm got NYC to near 40 inches total for the season.

I think this winter pattern has more potential in it. Friday might surprise.

[bluewave]

This. The upgrade did nothing to fix it...

 

Looks like all the other guidance closes off by 6z Tues and this is where GFS is stumbling.

We saw the GFS eastward bias with the rainstorm last week which the euro nailed and the

GFS finally came west at the last minute.

[Nygmen]

geez im anxious...if the EURO would to cave to the gfs not saying it will that would be an epic fail n=based on its standards

[NEXtreme]

upper levels on Goofus looks like the Euro... So that's good.

[Allsnow]

Looks like all the other guidance closes off by 6z Tues and this is where GFS is stumbling.

We saw the GFS eastward bias with the rainstorm last week which the euro nailed and the

GFS finally came west at the last minute.

Yep...even in the storm last febuary. Looking at the model number it has been worse then the Knicks since the upgrade.

[WintersGrasp]

Looks like all the other guidance closes off by 6z Tues and this is where GFS is stumbling.

We saw the GFS eastward bias with the rainstorm last week which the euro nailed and the

GFS finally came west at the last minute.

I wonder what would cause the "stumble" then...in this case it wouldn't really be the GFS finally coming around, since it already did.....I'm wondering what would cause the GFS as well as the RGEM to lose the extreme solution for our area?....hopefully the euro holds serve