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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

wow ok...the nam was also THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAD THIS BAND HITTING US TODAY...AT THIS POINT IF U WERE MAKING A FORECAST EVERY MODEL SHOULD BE TOSSED EXCEPT THE EURO AND NAM...AND THATS NOT BEING A WEENIE UPTON FULLY AGREES

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted

What's your take on it ? NAM (and the euro kind of ready to fight, but reluctant) vs GFS and most other models.....To be honest, if the NAM did not show a ridiculous amount of snow I think we'd toss it (if all of the other models showed 30" and the NAM showed 10").....It's hard to accept that it would be a solution VS all else, considering it's accuracy.....But, this storm has come a long way.....

 

The NAM is in a more accurate range.. This is its bullseye zone. And i'd say that even if the totals were much less. Again, look at the radar. Look at the negative tilt... Look at its tendencies and intentions. Superstorm93 has been posting excellent illustrations of this. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted

What's your take on it ? NAM (and the euro kind of ready to fight, but reluctant) vs GFS and most other models.....To be honest, if the NAM did not show a ridiculous amount of snow I think we'd toss it (if all of the other models showed 30" and the NAM showed 10").....It's hard to accept that it would be a solution VS all else, considering it's accuracy.....But, this storm has come a long way.....

Dynamics dynamics. The GFS does not have the resolution to see what this storm is doing, at least not correctly. The NWS is following the NAM and Euro and I see no reason not to either. Yes the NAM can have some major issues, but with how it is lining up with all other current conditions, it's currently verifying.
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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

LATEST UPTON : (GOOD NEWS : they are riding the NAM all the way).....never thought we'd heard that huh? 

I would assume the 24-36" area would be expanded west soon on their map

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

997 LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA AT 4 PM PER MSAS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE
WRN ATLC. THE RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED BANDING OVER LI...WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN S OF LI FLOWING NWD.

THE END RESULT IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THRU
THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH PER HR INTO THE 2-4
INCH PER HR RANGE BY 10PM OR SO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

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mikemost

mikemost

Posted
Posted

Can anyone elaborate on why the short range models (hrrr/rap to be specific) are steadfast thus far in keeping the bulk of the moisture over LI/off shore/into NE? I recognize the fact that the strong dynamics seem to be having an effect. But I was wondering if someone could explain a bit more in depth.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

The HRRR has consistently been hammering NE for the past 12 hours now, so I have reason to completely toss this solution at this point. While it seems nearly impossible that it verifies, it's still something that you can't simply ignore (unless there's a legitimate or  technical reason). Just have to keep this in the back of your mind when thinking things through. 

 

It's just so hard to watch NJ smoke virga like this. 

 

hrrr_current_ne.gif

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

The HRRR has consistently been hammering NE for the past 12 hours now, so I have reason to completely toss this solution at this point. While it seems nearly impossible that it verifies, it's still something that you can't simply ignore (unless there's a legitimate or  technical reason)

 

It's just so hard to watch NJ smoke virga like this. 

 

hrrr_current_ne.gif

upton and mt holly know the ramifications if they bust that hard they wouldnt be putting up these numbers if they werent confident...TOSS

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