Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[mikeysed]

MT HOLLY UPDATED: Similar, shifted EPA to less qpf:

[Superstorm93]

Upton still going strong. 

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD INTO TUESDAY...

CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-270430-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150128T0500Z/
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
328 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...NEW LONDON AND SOUTHERN
FAIRFIELD COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. HUDSON...EASTERN BERGEN...
EASTERN ESSEX AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY.
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND
(STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...SUFFOLK...QUEENS AND
NASSAU COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...20 TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT.

* SNOWFALL RATES...2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

[Nygmen]

mt, holly expanded the 18-24 on their snowmap west by maybe 30 miles

wow ok its obvious there liking the develpoment so far...its basically toss everything except the nam and euro and maybe serfs for THEM based on there forecast

[IsentropicLift]

Updated Map

 

[Nygmen]

Updated Map

 

has the rgem come out?

[negative-nao]

these traffic cams tell the story

 

 

http://www.trafficland.com/city/ISP

[winterwarlock]

Thats the same mt holly map from this morning

[JMarsden]

Thats the same mt holly map from this morning

It's a little different. The 18-24" range was shifted west a tad on the latest map.

[Stormlover74]

Thats the same mt holly map from this morning

Nope updated 351

[Violentweatherfan]

Thats the same mt holly map from this morning

Newer time stamp up top.

[winterwarlock]

Well they didnt change anything...because I saved the other and they have the same amounts in the same places

[Superstorm93]

Starting to get pretty pumped up 

 

[WintersGrasp]

Wow what a difference between weather models. We'll see where the GFS is...The RAP barely brings anything east of long island and then pulls it out and away, whereas the NAM is obviously a top 5 storm for us all. Watch the GFS shift even further east lol

[Superstorm93]

Take all the snow map talk to the banter thread. 

 

[TwcMan]

Joe Cioffi has raised snowfall accumulations.

[RUMG11]

Take all the snow map talk to the banter thread. 

 

 

Oh my god. That is beautiful. You can just see its intention. 

[smoof]

Does anybody have the kuchera ratio method for the 18z 4km NAM? it has to be completely insane with near 4" QPF in NYC... obviously overdone but good weather pr0n lol.

[JMarsden]

I have no dog in this fight as I'm on the west coast but best of luck to all of you. I hope you guys get hammered.

[TwcMan]

Starting to get pretty pumped up

Did that Low jump to the northwest on its last frame? Or is it just my eyes?

[HailMan06]

Did that Low jump to the northwest on its last frame? Or is it just my eyes?

I'm seeing that too.

[RUMG11]

Did that Low jump to the northwest on its last frame? Or is it just my eyes?

 

The negative tilt is developing NW. You can see its intention. 

[Thundersnow12]

Not a live product yet on our COD site but just a preview...

 

HRRR snowfall rates an hour using a 10:1 ratio

 

[Allsnow]

Superstotm93 posts the best maps

[WintersGrasp]

Not a live product yet on our COD site but just a preview...

 

HRRR snowfall rates an hour using a 10:1 ratio

 

ilsnrate.19z.f15.png

Wow man that's awesome. Never seen something like that. Now move the bands of snow away from Boston and near us and it'll be perfect. Just kidding....Love it though

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Did Upton change their maps, or no?  Does anyone have a graphic handy?

[WintersGrasp]

Did Upton change their maps, or no?  Does anyone have a graphic handy?

nah not changed since earlier

[WishingForWarmWeather]

nah not changed since earlier

Very much appreciated.  Thank you. 

[Allsnow]

From Mt. Holly's discussion, just issued at 4:07:

THE SNOW GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHTER ON THE WEST SIDE THAN SUGGESTED BY THE

STORM TOTAL MAP...BUT THE MAPS ALSO REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE

THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT MAY BE.

[WintersGrasp]

lol RGEM 18z is like the complete opposite of the NAM. 5-10" NENJ/NYC. 15" east end. Sends all of the best into New England....WAY different. It's a good model and the NAM is really alone with a solution like that (in regards to the price spreading west), with even the euro not doing anything to that degree.

[Nygmen]

lol RGEM is like the complete opposite of the NAM. Sends all of the best into New England....WAY different

even ppl in the new england sub forum are tossing it...FWIW