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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted

Eastern PA Weather Authority

24 mins ·

The latest analysis at the surface shows the low pressure is stronger and more WSW than the model guidance at 12z (this late morning/early afternoon) suggested. This matches up with our observations of the trough taking a "negative tilt" earlier. This means the trough axis is from SE to NW, this allows air to diverge over the low pressure system aloft. Which then allows air to rise faster and speed up the development of the low. The next thing we will be watching for is when this trough closes off and allows the low to slow down and stay closer to the coast. That should occur later this evening. Current forecast stands as called, no reason to change it right now.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Out pacing the 12z euro . By 7 pm tonite the euro had .01 Into Brooklyn .2 into knyc .3 into queens.

As of 230 I have close to 2 inches of snow here in Dyker heights Brooklyn it is snowing at about a half inch to an inch an hour

These snowfall rates will do well before the winds start cranking.

Way ahead of what the euro qpf thought.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

15Z SREF is drier again. I'm done model watching. it's coming down hard in Ramsey. They just closed the building. Radar looks far less impressive out where I live.

Barely, it looks like the gradient has become even tighter though. I think DT mentioned this was possible in this type of storm and it looks to be coming true so differences in where the banding sets up will be huge. 

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

15Z SREF is drier again. I'm done model watching. it's coming down hard in Ramsey. They just closed the building. Radar looks far less impressive out where I live.

Close to 15" in 6 hours close to Boston in the SREFs....it looked to me like the 1" line stayed in roughly the same area of NJ though, maybe even pushed back west a bit (like 5-10 miles lol)

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Man the HRRR wants no part of this tonight west of LI, if that verifies, God help us all..I doubt it is though.

I've been continuing to watch the RAP/HRRR and it just will not bring that band east past central Long Island ! It's been bad sometimes, but assuming it's not correct, it's useless today

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Out pacing the 12z euro . By 7 pm tonite the euro had .01 Into Brooklyn .2 into knyc .3 into queens.

As of 230 I have close to 2 inches of snow here in Dyker heights Brooklyn it is snowing at about a half inch to an inch an hour

These snowfall rates will do well before the winds start cranking.

Way ahead of what the euro qpf thought.

 

The 12z NAM nailed it. Bringing back memories from the ETA glory days.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

 

Bill - first, thanks for your work at the NWS and for posting your superb insights on the board.  I have two questions.  First, and I'm sure this isn't your responsibility, there, but isn't there someone on the graphics staff who could update the palate available for snowfall?  The 24-36" was and is misleading, since most people never read the AFDs and go right to the maps.  

 

Second, from a "risk management" perspective, did you guys consider going w/18-24" yesterday, instead of 24-36" (or 24-30")?  As I put it last night (not sure if you saw it), if you predict 18-24" and the storm overperforms by ~25% and people get 24-30", my guess is they say "great job."  However if you publish 24-36" (even if you predicted 24-30" - the public thinks it's 24-36") and the storm underperforms by ~25% and people get 15-20", my guess is people are more likely to say the forecast busted.  Not that being wrong is the worst thing in the world, especially in a highly uncertain and chaotic science like meteorology, but why not have the "wrong" be an outcome that is a little better for public confidence in the endeavor and probably gives you less yahoos giving you grief?  

 

Thanks - and please don't take my questions as being negative about the job you guys do - the NWS is definitely the best source out there and I link to your info all the time in my communications to others (I'm heavily involved in emergency preparedness at my 5000 person site here in Union County) - I try to digest all the weather info into what exactly to expect here over the course of an event, including highlighting all of the uncertainties.  

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