Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[stlirish]

Remember Euro had about 1.9" forecast for rain storm a few weeks ago and we ended up with 2.4" I think. Just sayin. And if we get 1.5" equivalent at KNYC that will be pushing 20".

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[NEXtreme]

What's important right now is actual observations, we already have a negatively tilted trough.

[Rjay]

Euro still prints out 2 feet for NYC and east.

Can't believe you aren't here for this. Been mod snow for past hour at work in Amityville.

[NEXtreme]

Radars are already starting to get busy!

[Rtd208]

What's important right now is actual observations, we already have a negatively tilted trough.

 

I agree with this, models are struggling due to this storm being such a dynamic system,  alot of volatility here.

[Stormlover74]

Mt. Holly holding strong

Gotta hope for at least 15:1 ratios for that to happen

[jamesny]

NWS still holding NYC at 20-30".

 

I'd say 18-24 would be safer at this point.

[MJO812]

MTA might be shut down later tonight and tomorrow. They don't know just yet.

[donsutherland1]

Remember Euro had about 1.9" forecast for rain storm a few weeks ago and we ended up with 2.4" I think. Just sayin. And if we get 1.5" equivalent at KNYC that will be pushing 20".

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That was the 1/18 storm.

[PB GFI]

Gotta hope for at least 15:1 ratios for that to happen

1.5 at 12 to 1 is 18 

1.75 at 12 to 1 is 21 .

Not impossible 

SREF is `1.5 

EURO is 1.5

NAM  2.5 .....  

 

Need 1.75 and you get home 

[stlirish]

NWS still holding NYC at 20-30".

I'd say 18-24 would be safer at this point.

Based on QPF printouts, yes. But they have other factors that are leading them to higher numbers. I got faith in them.

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[Animal]

Mt. Holly holding strong

 

 

 

They should have the 6-8 over my area. just sayin. No possible way that map verifies.

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

12-18 is a good call nyc metro 2ft+ on long island

Agreed ..good call for now ..

[jm1220]

Can't believe you aren't here for this. Been mod snow for past hour at work in Amityville.

If I had any time off saved up I would've been on the first flight back. But I just started here so a few days in NYC for a blizzard isn't in the cards.

[winterwarlock]

Mt holly said they will update that map at 4

[cny_tornado_lover]

Based on QPF printouts, yes. But they have other factors that are leading them to higher numbers. I got faith in them.

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Or it could be less... Funny how everyone seems to think it is always more precip than what the models show. But it also could be less. ~Norm

[wkd]

Time to switch to radar? Moderate snow here now.

[mikeysed]

Mt Holly posted they are updating their snow map at 4pm:

 

 

NWS Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly  ·  32m 32 minutes ago

Folks an updated snowfall total map will be issued around 4pm. We thank you for your patience. #njwx #dewx #mdwx #pawx

[jm1220]

Very dangerous call down by Philly, as some models don't even get them to a half inch liquid, and the cutoffs on these storms are often very pronounced. They might end up with 4-6" when now they're forecasted 10-14".

[MJO812]

MTA will be shutting down. Twitter

 

@PzFeed: First time in history all MTA and LIRR service will be suspended over a snowstorm.

[triniiphone]

MTA will be shutting down. Twitter

tomorrow?

[WintersGrasp]

I just realized that the NWS, which previously had the area (NE-NJ/NYC) in the 20-30" range under the Blizzard Warning and had brought it down to the high, yet more reasonable 18-24".....has raised it back up to 20-30" at 12:56pm today (BEFORE the Euro run).....lol.....what would possibly be the benefit in doing that?

[MJO812]

tomorrow?

Later tonight

[rgwp96]

Mt. Holly holding strong

 

these will be updated and most likely  lowered at 4pm

[stlirish]

I just realized that the NWS, which previously had the area (NE-NJ/NYC) in the 20-30" range under the Blizzard Warning and had brought it down to the high, yet more reasonable 18-24".....has raised it back up to 20-30" at 12:56pm today (BEFORE the Euro run).....lol.....what would possibly be the benefit in doing that?

B/c they know how to forecast and not be married to each new model run

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[mikeysed]

Channel 7... Lee Goldberg and Bill Evans talking about latest Euro run, and short range models.

[WintersGrasp]

B/c they know how to forecast and not be married to each new model run

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This should probably all be put into banter.....but the forecasts are clearly based off of model runs. We all know that

[Zir0b]

My final call for nyc, eastern nj extending to new brunswick. 15-20 higher in mesoscale banding

[RUMG11]

I just realized that the NWS, which previously had the area (NE-NJ/NYC) in the 20-30" range under the Blizzard Warning and had brought it down to the high, yet more reasonable 18-24".....has raised it back up to 20-30" at 12:56pm today (BEFORE the Euro run).....lol.....what would possibly be the benefit in doing that?

Perhaps they see something we don't? It seems they updated the maps as soon as the negative tilt was evident. That may be a bigger player in this thing then we all may think currently.

[rsteff]

B/c they know how to forecast and not be married to each new model run

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Upton has raised the total on LI from 18-24 to 24 -36