Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[swamplover56]

The problem with NJ is that on a lot of the short range modeling they completely miss the CCB. All the snow is from the initial over running.

This is disturbing too but it's hard to determine where banding sets up. Don't wanna 25 miles west of the best banding sitting in subsidence when they are getting 3" hour rates of snowfall

[SleetStormNJ]

RGEM is good for inside 24-36 hrs. It tends to fluctuate a lot though 36-48 from run to run.

Its been really good on rain/snow cutoffs though.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

I think I'm heading to Hoboken for this one

Hahaha dude really???!! what are you like 10 miles from Hoboken?? Hahaha its not THAT much of a cutoff where you're at. You'll still get 2 feet in Rahway. Hahaja

[richm20]

How will this relate or compare to the huge 3 foot snow we had after sandy!?

 

Who got 3' after sandy?

[wthrmn654]

???

You mean the 6" snow event a week after? Or you mean 2/8/13? If you mean the second one, this one will be quite similar but longer lasting out by you.

I don't remember the date,but it was that crippling one with the lie expressway closed for a day or2 cares stranded all over etc. With that event though, we had 2-3 feet but did have an hour or2 of rain near midnight! and still managed nearly3 feet! I think this could trump that storm possibly

[swamplover56]

Hahaha dude really???!! what are you like 10 miles from Hoboken?? Hahaha its not THAT much of a cutoff where you're at. You'll still get 2 feet in Rahway. Hahaja

In west orange now gotta change that 20 miles due west of nyc bout 16 to hoboken

[SleetStormNJ]

Surprising to see such model consensus on such good snow growth and overall ratios during the height of the storm. That's a confidence booster for sure.

[bluewave]

Who got 3' after sandy?

 

They are talking about the Feb 2013 blizzard.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=123

[jm1220]

I don't remember the date,but it was that crippling one with the lie expressway closed for a day or2 cares stranded all over etc. With that event though, we had 2-3 feet but did have an hour or2 of rain near midnight! and still managed nearly3 feet! I think this could trump that storm possibly

Yep, that would be the early Feb storm with 25"+ reported east of the Sagtikos. 

[uncle W]

being a veteran of many big storms I think 8-12" is a more realistic call for now in NYC...it would be one of the largest plus ao/nao storms on record...

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

In west orange now gotta change that 20 miles due west of nyc bout 16 to hoboken

Still fine. Hahaha

[wthrmn654]

The blizzard of February 8-9 2013 I'm referring to,http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02082013.html

[RUMG11]

The problem with NJ is that on a lot of the short range modeling they completely miss the CCB. All the snow is from the initial over running.

Where's that cut off where the CCB wiffs? Far western NJ? Or is the CCB setup too far NE?

[RUMG11]

being a veteran of many big storms I think 8-12" is a more realistic call for now in NYC...it would be one of the largest plus ao/nao storms on record...

Wildly conservative considering model guidance

[patrick05]

calling tmagan for the SUNY MM5 model!

[Juliancolton]

Upper-level trough looks a little sharper and more neutrally tilted very early on, but by hr 30 the energy is a bit more disjointed with a slower approach from the northern stream energy. End result might be near the same... we'll see.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Hearing GFS is a tick west of 0z

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS makes no sense to me, the 500mb low is practically on the NJ coast and yet the heaviest banding goes East of the city.

[PhillyBlizzard17]

Looks slightly west of 00z to me

[wthrmn654]

The link I gave for that storm had these generated after the storm.

[Juliancolton]

At hour 42 the low is a little east and the banding over our area isn't as intense. Not sure where folks are seeing a tick west.

[swamplover56]

The 12z GFS makes no sense to me, the 500mb low is practically on the NJ coast and yet the heaviest banding goes East of the city.

Doh another model showing nj not getting the best banding

[MJO812]

GFS has about only 6-12 inches lol. Way less precip. Closes off late. I will be worried if the Euro has this but the GFS is known to do this right before a big coastal storm.

[Juliancolton]

Quite a bit less favorable on the 12z GFS...

[WintersGrasp]

GFS definitely came east as well as with the banding.....all in all, I honestly think we could be setting ourselves up for failure IF we are expecting 20"+.....I think 10-15" is much more realistic.....20-30" in SNE as well as east Long Island.

[swamplover56]

Closes off to late shifts heaviest precip pretty far north east

[SleetStormNJ]

Eh. This is the model waffling we all know and love. NAM honks big-time, GFS backs off slightly.

On to the GGEM and Euro.

[MJO812]

GFS definitely came east as well as with the banding.....all in all, I honestly think we could be setting ourselves up for failure IF we are expecting 20"+.....I think 10-15" is much more realistic.....20-30" in SNE as well as east Long Island.

 

GFS still shows a foot which would be a welcome sight. Onto the Euro.

[ZNSTATED]

The blizzard of February 8-9 2013 I'm referring to,http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02082013.html

That was winter storm nemo I believe, incredible snow fall rates and thunder snow

Any chance this storm has thunder snow

[jm1220]

The storm evolves slower on the GFS and the banding from the CCB doesn't really get going unless you're north and east of the city. It's still a possibility that has to be watched, and obviously you need the 500mb low to close off south of you, and a negatively tilted trough early enough to capture the low before it gets too far east.