Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[ForestHillWx]

The water vapor loop is great; I would imagine Euro stays the course. Other than the models blowing up the convection closer to the Gulf Stream, what would be the forcing mechanism to push the Euro east dramatically? The trough is negative now. I think it will all come together for some great snow rates tonight. Good vibes all the way.

[middlesea]

Just saw this...note the time stamp. Is this correct?

 

Created: 01/26/15 12:28 PM EST

[IsentropicLift]

One thing about the Euro, it was pretty dry until after 00z. Then the height of the storm is from about 06z to 18z Tuesday.

[Superstorm93]

Wow, unless I'm totally sleep deprived and hallucinating badly, it appears Upton upped the totals in some places. 

[IsentropicLift]

I'll do the Euro, All Snow will probably assist, and so will Superstorm.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro is so gonna tick east, it has to, if it comes west all other models should be condemned permanently.

[IsentropicLift]

Wow, unless I'm totally sleep deprived and hallucinating badly, it appears Upton upped the snow totals for everyone. 

Upton increased totals for the city East and kept numbers the same NW.

[Superstorm93]

I'll do the Euro, All Snow will probably assist, and so will Superstorm.

 

I'll help with QPF and snow totals post facto. 

 

Its all you. 

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro is so gonna tick east, it has to, if it comes west all other models should be condemned permanently.

The track on the Euro is the same as the rest of the guidance. It just throws back more moisture.

[coh]

That water vapor loop is beautiful...look at the ascent blossoming just offshore and south of Long Island. Wish I could be down there for this one.

[tdp146]

Just saw this...note the time stamp. Is this correct?

 

Created: 01/26/15 12:28 PM EST

Before the Euro. Forecast balls of steel

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Wow, unless I'm totally sleep deprived and hallucinating badly, it appears Upton upped the totals in some places.

Looks identical to last nights pre-00z nam and GFS ... They're making me nervous with their confusion as well

[jdt]

The water vapor loop is great; I would imagine Euro stays the course. Other than the models blowing up the convection closer to the Gulf Stream, what would be the forcing mechanism to push the Euro east dramatically? The trough is negative now. I think it will all come together for some great snow rates tonight. Good vibes all the way.

Trough has gone negative next big thing is exactly when and where the upper low closes off this evening / tonight. Thus far the atmosphere seems to be following along with the Euro. Lets see it the upcoming Euro keeps the same tune. I would be very surprised if it shifts more that a minor wobble one way or the other. Of course any wooble east more the 25 miles will be worrisome especially for the western folks.

[IsentropicLift]

566 users online for this

[triniiphone]

upton has 2-3' for brooklyn...

[Allsnow]

566 users online for this

Crazy....I will post mother of God posts if Euro is a hit

[Northshore Blizzard]

Upton has gone back to it's 24-36 inch prediction it rolled out yesterday; I'm guessing that the neg tilt that's occurring now rather than later has convinced them to put those numbers back up.

 

...and we wait for the King to confirm...

[Joe4alb]

yeah NWS upped them again 24 - 36 after dropping them down to 18 - 24 last night

[WintersGrasp]

Wow, unless I'm totally sleep deprived and hallucinating badly, it appears Upton upped the totals in some places.

The way that this storm will probably work out though is that if there is a widespread 24-36" area, most will probably be 24 with lollipops of 36 with best banding. I doubt there will be a widespread 18-24" just west of it though, as all models are showing that the totals do not gradually decrease, but do so very sharply. This map seems like I follow the NAM I guess with the huge totals from NYC-east

[IsentropicLift]

The King has initialized, here we go. Please try to keep posts to a minimun till afterwards, thanks.

[jdt]

yeah NWS upped them again 24 - 36 after dropping them down to 18 - 24 last night

Remember Bill from upton said the 24-36" on the map is base selection that cannot be modified. Read the text forecast to see what they actually mean which may be 24-30. Either what its a ton of snow.

[jbenedet]

Just saw this...note the time stamp. Is this correct?

 

Created: 01/26/15 12:28 PM EST

 

I really dislike the subtle drop off in accums west and north of Essex, Bergen, Middlesex, and Union counties. I think the drop off will be severe and it's more a function of subsidence and very intense snows just to the east, than anything else...

[IsentropicLift]

Right out of the gate the trough initialzed better than 00z. Sharper and with a faster negative tilt.

[svh19044]

The SPC WRF matches the current radar somewhat well, its similar in that ERN NJ east does well but not much west...here is the 05Z frame, from here everything starts inching east

 

 

 

Current radar is way west of the SPC WRF, no? 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Going negative tilt faster and the moisture looks further NW. You can't make this up.

[Superstorm93]

Undoubtedly more negative and the SLP is further west by 12 hours 

[Allsnow]

Hr 12 steady snow touching the coast

[Allsnow]

Hr 15 steady snow to ttn

[IsentropicLift]

It's coming NW, looks like H5 is going to close off in a very favorable position.

[Allsnow]

Hrs 21 heavy snow entire state huge hit again